Original title: View the World, British Political Situation | Early Election Sunak "Gambling" on the Future of the Conservative Party

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, May 24 (Xinhua News Agency) British Prime Minister Richie Sunak announced on the 22nd that the lower house of parliament elections would be held in advance, and the polling day was set for July 4.

At this stage, the Conservative Party led by Sunak lags behind the opposition Labor Party by about 20 percentage points. Public opinion believes that against this background, Sunak's decision to hold an early election is tantamount to a political gamble.

Announce in the rain

On the evening of the 22nd, it began to rain in London. Sunak spoke in the rain outside the Prime Minister's Office at No. 10 Downing Street and announced the time of the election. It was raining harder and harder, and Sunak soon got wet all over.

On May 22, British Prime Minister Sunak delivered a speech in front of the Prime Minister's Office at 10 Downing Street in London. Shen Jizhong

Outside the security gate at the street crossing, anti government demonstrators played a theme song of the Labour Party election that exploded in 1997 in high volume. In that year, Tony Blair led the Labor Party to win the general election by a landslide, ending the 18 years of Conservative governance and being elected Prime Minister.

Sunak had to raise his voice and almost shouted, so that the reporters on the scene could hear his speech clearly.

He cited his achievements in the fields of economy, immigration, education and so on since he became the Chancellor of the Exchequer to the Prime Minister, and particularly emphasized how to help Britain recover its "hard won economic stability" after the financial shock caused by the former Prime Minister Elizabeth Trass's more than 40 days in power.

Sunak also took the opportunity to attack Kiel Stamer, the leader of the Labor Party and the biggest opponent, saying that the latter only wanted to seize the back seat regime, but had no plan to lead the country. Once the Labor Party came to power, the future would be full of uncertainty.

However, according to the public opinion survey conducted by the British Public Opinion Survey Company, Stamer's support rate is much higher than Sunak's.

Adventurous strategy

Reuters pointed out that Sunak's decision to hold an early election was a risky strategy when the support rate of the Conservative Party was far behind that of the Labor Party. Agence France Presse said it was a "gamble".

According to the Associated Press, the Conservative Party has lost many by elections to the House of Commons this year, and recently two members of Parliament have joined the Labour Party. Poll analysts believe Sunak is desperate.

According to British law, the new parliamentary election must be held before January 28, 2025. The outside world had expected Sunak to hold an early election this autumn, as he had previously hinted, because the economic situation might be further improved and voters could begin to benefit from the Conservative government's recent tax cuts, which would be beneficial to the Conservative Party's election.

At present, Sunak's decision to bring the general election forward to the summer has shocked some Tory MPs, but some support it. In an interview with Reuters, several members of the Conservative Party, who did not want to be named, said that the economic situation in Britain might deteriorate next, so further early elections are worth taking a risk.

On December 26, 2023, a woman stood in front of a promotional billboard in Oxford Street, London, England. Photographed by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Ying

According to the data released by the Office for National Statistics on the 22nd, the inflation rate of the UK in April fell to 2.3%, the lowest in nearly three years, close to the inflation rate target of 2.0% set by the Bank of England, the central bank of the UK, and far lower than the inflation rate of 11% in October 2022, when Sunak took office. Some analysts said that the current economic situation in the UK was fair, with the fastest growth rate in recent three years. However, the inflation rate that has plagued the public in recent years may rebound in the second half of this year.

Tim Bell, a professor of political science at Queen Mary University in London, said that some voters may appreciate Sunak's decisiveness because of his "gambling", but more voters still pay attention to the fundamentals, which is "not particularly favorable" for the Prime Minister: the British economy is still weak, growth is sluggish, and although the inflation rate has dropped, the impact remains, The national health care system and other public services are in constant trouble.

What's the Labour Party doing?

Stamer, the leader of the Labor Party, issued a statement on the same day, emphasizing "change". He said that the early election will give the country a chance to end the "chaos" under the Conservative Party.

On May 5, 2022, Stamer (second from left), leader of the British Labor Party, and his wife (second from right) were ready to leave after voting at a polling station in London. Xinhua News Agency (photographed by Tim Ireland)

The Labor Party criticized the Conservative Party for its poor economic governance over the past 14 years in power, which made people's livelihood more difficult. A series of chaotic policies failed to stimulate economic growth and disappointed market expectations. Sunak and the Conservative government criticized the Labor Party for raising taxes once it came to power and for its inability to meet national security challenges.

Some senior leaders of the Labor Party worry that the advantage of the Labor Party may not be as obvious as the opinion polls show, and it is still difficult to obtain the majority of seats in the lower house of parliament. Many voters may not have made a decision, and the Labour Party has not yet completed the selection of all candidates.

In addition to the cost of living crisis caused by inflation, immigration control has also become a hot topic that aggravates social differentiation in Britain. In recent years, a large number of stowaways have crossed the English Channel into the UK, which has increased the financial burden of the UK and caused discord between the UK and France and other countries. Sunak inherited his predecessor's policy and pushed forward the plan of sending illegal immigrants to Rwanda, an African country.

He told British media on the 23rd that the first flight to transport illegal immigrants to Africa will take off after the election. This plan may help boost the Conservative Party's election, but it is also a double-edged sword. The human rights disputes and legal challenges caused by this plan may prevent the Conservative Party from gaining broad support.

Reuters said that if the Labor Party wins the election, it means that Britain will have six prime ministers in eight years. This phenomenon has been seen for the first time since the 1930s.

The last "July general election" in Britain dates back to 1945. The polling day of that year was set on July 5, which resulted in the unexpected defeat of the Conservative Party, which had been in power for about 40 years in a row. Winston Churchill, the then Prime Minister, "stepped down sadly" and the Labour Party came to power. (Hu Ruoyu)