Connected expert: Yu Jianhua, chief forecaster of Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory

From June 14 to 20, Jiangxi Province witnessed a rare period of heavy rainfall concentration. The average accumulated rainfall in the province reached 196 mm, and some areas exceeded 500 mm. Serious floods, waterlogging and geological disasters occurred in some areas, causing 4.91 million people affected and 3 deaths. Yu Jianhua, chief forecaster of Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory, pointed out that there will be a heavy rainfall process in Jiangxi from 24th to 25th, and the flood control situation is not optimistic.

Rare heavy rainfall in June

"On June 14-20, Jiangxi experienced the longest and strongest rainstorm process since this year, with the average cumulative rainfall of 196 mm in the province and more than 500 mm in some parts." Yu Jianhua analyzed that "the strong rain belt was located in southern Jiangxi on 14-16, and moved to northern Jiangxi and central Jiangxi on 17-20. According to the data of Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory, 25 counties and cities in Jiangxi Province experienced heavy rain from 08:00 on the 19th to 08:00 on the 20th, and 5 counties and cities experienced heavy rain. The number of daily heavy rain and heavy rain stations reached the historical extreme, which is the strongest rainstorm process since Jiangxi has complete meteorological data. "

Chuju Village in Gaofu Town, Zixi County was hit by flood (photographed on June 20). Photographed by Zhou Ke, a reporter from Xinhua News Agency

Looking back to the middle of June, Jiangxi Province had significantly more precipitation and significantly lower temperature. On November 19th, the average precipitation of Jiangxi Province was 208mm, 1.14 times more than that of the same period over the years, ranking the fourth in history; There are 23 counties and cities with rainfall exceeding 300 mm, 5 counties and cities with rainfall exceeding 400 mm, and 9 counties and cities, including Jinxian, Nanchang County, Gao'an, Shanggao, Yifeng, Tonggu, Shangrao County, Yingtan, Dongxiang, have reached a record high in the same period. In addition, the average temperature of the province is 24.5 ℃, 1 ℃ lower, ranking the fourth in the same period of history.

"The rare heavy rainfall in history will inevitably bring serious meteorological disasters. At present, serious floods, waterlogging and geological disasters have occurred in some areas of Jiangxi."

4.91 million people were affected and 3 died

Heavy rainfall led to mountain torrents, river water surged, some rivers were flooded beyond warning or historical records, and some areas suffered serious floods. As of 20:00 on the 20th, more than 4.91 million people had been affected in 1052 townships and towns in 89 counties (cities and districts) in Jiangxi Province. The area of crops affected was 364000 hectares, 50276 houses collapsed, more than 464000 people were transferred, 3 people were dead, 7 people were missing, and more than 180000 people were trapped by floods.

Fuzhou, Yingtan and other places were particularly affected by the disaster. Yujiang, Dongxiang, Nancheng, Zixi and other counties were flooded with a depth of more than 1 meter. Dongxiang County was flooded with a depth of 1.5 meters, and water supply, power supply and communication were interrupted.

According to the monitoring of the National Defense General Administration, affected by heavy rainfall, 35 rivers across the country experienced floods beyond the warning water level, of which 26 rivers in Jiangxi Province exceeded the warning water level, and 6 rivers such as Xinjiang River and Fuhe River experienced floods beyond the historical measured records. The frequency of floods in Xinjiang River and Fuhe River reached the level of catastrophic floods with a 50 year return period.

"At present, the staff of the meteorological bureaus of all cities in Jiangxi Province, except for the forecasters, have gone to the front line of flood fighting and emergency rescue. The first is to provide scientific and effective meteorological technical support to reduce unnecessary casualties," Yu Jianhua said. In addition, the Jiangxi Provincial Military Region, the provincial fire brigade, the armed police force and others have urgently dispatched officers and soldiers to the front line of flood disaster areas to participate in flood fighting and rescue.

There will be heavy rainfall in the north on 24-25

"As far as Nanchang City is concerned, the rain basically stopped the afternoon of the day before yesterday (the 20th day), and the sun came out yesterday. Today and tomorrow, the rain entered a short pause period, but after the 23rd, there will be new heavy rain, and the future flood prevention situation is not optimistic." Yu Jianhua still expressed his concern about the future weather.

The Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory predicted that the rainfall in the north of the central part of the province in late June was slightly more than that in the south, and the average temperature in ten days was normal across the province. On the 23rd, precipitation began to appear in the whole province, with showers in most areas and heavy rain in some areas; There was an obvious precipitation process in the north of Jiangxi Province from 24th to 25th, with heavy rain in some places and heavy rain in some places. On the 26th, the whole province was overcast and cloudy, with showers in most places, and local heavy rain was expected to end. In addition, Jiangxi Meteorological Bureau found after measuring soil moisture on June 18 that most of the soil moisture in Jiangxi is obviously wet at present, and the sudden relative humidity of the soil in Hukou and Nankang is more than 86%, which is obviously affected by heavy rainfall and will be maintained in the future.

"From the analysis of the data obtained so far, the total rainfall in the last ten days of June in northern and central Jiangxi is expected to be 90-150 mm, exceeding 200 mm in some parts, and 50-80 mm in southern Jiangxi. Many counties are currently flooded throughout the city, so how to deal with this rainfall will inevitably become a problem."

Seize the opportunity to fight floods and provide disaster relief and do well in post disaster reconstruction

"Continuous rainstorm occurred in the south central part of Jiangxi Province from 14 to 16 days and in the north central part of Jiangxi Province from 17 to 20 days. The accumulated rainfall in some areas exceeded 500 mm. Flooding and waterlogging occurred in some areas, and geological disasters occurred in some areas. However, 24 days ago, most areas in the north of Jiangxi Province were mainly cloudy and cloudy, which was favorable for flood relief and post disaster recovery and reconstruction." Yu Jianhua pointed out that, Before ushering in a new round of heavy rainfall, the most important thing is to seize the opportunity to reduce the harm caused by the new round of heavy rainfall.

"In addition, take advantage of the favorable weather in the early and late days of the next ten days to carry out agricultural production and disaster relief work, such as farmland waterlogging drainage, fertilizer dressing, repair of damaged facilities, and at the same time, make good arrangements for the prevention and control of crop diseases and pests. In particular, early rice planting areas should seize the upcoming break heading stage to develop mixed ear holding drugs, mainly to prevent rice planthoppers and rice blast." (Bian Yun)