China News Online, May 27 (Zuo Yukun, a reporter from China News Finance and Economics) Since the Central Bank released a number of favorable policies on real estate on May 17, data shows that more than 80% of cities in the country have implemented the "517" new policy, and more than 200 cities have issued documents to implement the down payment of the first house loan, accounting for 15%. How will this affect the housing market?
The reporter from Zhongxin Finance and Economics learned from relevant practitioners in Beijing and other places that the market activity and confidence in some cities have improved, but if you want to have a more obvious reflection on the overall transaction data, the policy effect needs to be further fermented.
Sales of some buildings in Beijing new housing market recovered
A property located outside the Fifth Ring Road, Haidian District, Beijing is a hot spot in the new housing market in Beijing recently. The good result of "more than 20 units sold in May" of the property is circulated in the intermediary circle.
A salesperson of the property confirmed to the reporter that the sales were hot: "We are just outside the North Fifth Ring Road, which is in line with the location of a new house outside the Fifth Ring Road mentioned in Beijing's' 430 'policy; secondly, we belong to Haidian District of Beijing, which is very popular, and many employees of Internet enterprises will buy houses here; Then the positioning and quality of the project itself are quite good. "
The salesperson said that the newly released policies have played a very important role in promoting sales. He mentioned that the number of units sold in May alone was almost more than that in the first four months of this year, especially in February this year. In fact, the sales were not ideal. "More than half of the houses we sold this month are high performance price houses with a total price of less than 10 million yuan. At present, there are still very suitable discounts and some special price houses."
However, the phenomenon of uneven heat and cold also exists between different buildings. During the interview, many salesmen said that the number of people who came to see the house did increase on the whole, but there was no obvious change in the turnover. In their view, this is mainly because Beijing has only lowered the interest rate of provident fund loans, but has not followed up to reduce the down payment and commercial loan interest rate. Many people are still waiting for more policies.
The activity of Beijing second-hand housing market has risen significantly
Compared with new houses, the activity of the second-hand housing market in Beijing has increased more significantly. Xiao Wen, a real estate agent in Chaoyang District, Beijing, can carry out three groups of visits every day on average after the new policy was introduced. According to his memory, the last time he had so many accompanying visits was when he just implemented the policy of "house recognition without loan recognition" in September last year.
"The game between the seller and the buyer has begun again." In the process of constantly watching, Xiaowen deeply felt the change of mentality of both sides. "Some owners were able to talk about the price again last week, and suddenly the price increased by 200000 yuan, without a drop; some buyers were very 'Buddhist' before, and found that many of the houses they were concerned about suddenly sold, and they decided after watching for an hour."
"To be honest, when the '517' new policy first came out, people were not very optimistic and were still looking forward to a bigger policy. However, the sales in the past few days are really the best this year. The inventory of houses has decreased, and some quotations have begun to rise. The customers who have seen the deal for a long time, especially those who just need it, don't know what will happen next, so they simply don't wait anymore. "
As for the change of price, Xiao Wen believed that it did stop falling in the short term and rose slightly, but it was not particularly fierce. "In some areas or housing sources, the increase is relatively large. The unit price of my house is between 60000 yuan and 70000 yuan. It is said that the same type of house has recently been sold at a price increase of 600000 yuan, and some housing sources have experienced a price reduction of 300000 yuan and a price increase of 300000 yuan in less than two months."
At present, many of the customers Xiaowen has taken over are replacement groups. They have sold the old ones but haven't gone through the formalities. Most of them are waiting and watching. "When they started, many of them were in the rising cycle of house prices, and they were in a hurry. Now is a good time for replacement, and they want to take a good look."
According to the data of Centaline Real Estate, about 1900 second-hand houses were sold in Beijing on the weekend of May 25-26, and more than 2000 on the weekend of May 17-18. Judging from the actual second-hand housing transactions in 26 days from May 1 to 26, Beijing has sold more than 14000 units, which is expected to reach about 17000 units in the whole month, which is basically close to the volume of 18000 units in Xiaoyangchun in March.
The market expects further policy consolidation
The core of the "517" new policy is to reduce the down payment ratio and adjust the loan interest rate. According to the data released by Centaline Real Estate Research Institute on the 27th, up to now, more than 80% of cities in the country have begun to implement this new policy.
Specifically, among 343 cities at prefecture level and above, more than 200 cities have explicitly issued policy documents to implement 15% of the down payment of individual first house loans, and more than 250 cities have explicitly cancelled the lower limit of house loan interest rates.
Among them, the recovery of Shenzhen market has attracted particular attention. Centaline Real Estate Research Institute monitored the changes in the listed prices of mainstream intermediaries in the market, and made the listed price index based on the proportion of the listed price rising and falling. After the "517" new policy, Shenzhen saw a sharp increase of 5 percentage points last week, nearly twice the increase in the first weekend after the "830" new policy in 2023.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said that the rapid recovery of Shenzhen market benefited from several rounds of easing of purchase restrictions, which made this policy sensitive city market take the lead in responding. In addition, since the second half of 2021, the housing price in Shenzhen has dropped by more than 30%, and the price correction has undoubtedly increased the willingness of buyers to purchase.
"At present, the market recovery is more prominent in the first and second tier hot cities, mainly because of the concentration of new citizens, migrant population, young people, and the strong demand for new houses, marriage houses, and school entrance houses. In recent years, house prices and purchase costs have declined, accumulating some demand. Recently, policies have improved expectations and purchasing power, and more people have entered the market." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Provincial Institute of Urban Planning, said.
On May 27, Shanghai issued the Notice on Policies and Measures to Optimize the Steady and Healthy Development of the City's Real Estate Market, proposing nine policy measures, including adjusting and optimizing the housing purchase restriction policy, supporting the reasonable housing demand of families with many children, optimizing the housing credit policy, supporting the "old for new" and optimizing the land and housing supply, This makes the market look forward to further improvement of the heat.
"The core of China's property market is Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Shenzhen and Beijing have obviously stopped falling, especially the positive phenomenon in Beijing's second-hand housing market, which means that the market is close to the bottom. In this case, if some interest rate cuts and other policies are implemented, this round of Xiaoyangchun is likely to last until the second half of the year." Zhang Dawei believes. (End)
(Sun Shuping, editor of Songhuajiang.com)
