[Jinhuanyu wire and cable] Ruida goods: Shanghai Copper is still weak after rising and falling [Jinhuanyu cable]
External market trend: Asian Luntong bottomed out and rebounded, of which the operating range of Luntong was 5738-5701 dollars/ton in three months, unchanged at 5730 dollars/ton compared with yesterday, and the rebound resistance above it focused on M60, that is, 5751 dollars/ton. In terms of position, on May 24, the position of Luntong was 329000, with a daily increase of 1683. This was the third consecutive day. This week, Luntong increased its position mainly, showing that the confidence of bulls in bargain hunting was rising, and the willingness of copper prices to rise was increasing.
Spot: It is reported that on May 26, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a discount of 90 yuan/ton - 40 yuan/ton for the contract of the month, the transaction price of Pingshui copper was 45740-45840 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of Shengshui copper was 45760 yuan/ton - 45860 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures copper market was flat. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, compared with the trading day after the festival, the holders were eager to sell for cash. The pressure on the current copper supply increased, the discount slightly expanded, the risk aversion of the middlemen increased, and the corresponding operations were reduced before the festival. The downstream received goods on demand before the festival. The transaction atmosphere tended to be flat, and the oversupply situation was obvious, highlighting the characteristics of the festival.
Internal market trend: the main contract of Shanghai Copper (46000, 90.00, 0.20%), 1707, shot up and fell back. The intraday trading volume was 46350-45850 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 46000 yuan/ton, up 0.07% on a daily basis, down 0.75% from the intraday high. Shanghai Copper is still operating at the intersection of the moving average, which shows that there are repeated air trades and short-term operations are relatively oscillatory. In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near low, far high, and the positive price difference between Shanghai Copper 1706 contract and 1707 contract expanded to 60 yuan/ton.
Market factor analysis: The Asian dollar index continued to oscillate at a low level for nearly a week, and the current trading volume is near 97.12, which is close to a six-month low. At the same time, as of May 20, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States that week was 234000, which was at a very low level. The average number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 235300, a 44 year low, indicating that the U.S. labor market continued to tighten, again providing support for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June. In terms of copper industry information, Japan's production of rolled copper products in April was 67649 tons, up 6.9% year on year and 2.5% month on month.
Market research and judgment: On May 26, the Shanghai Copper 1707 contract spiked and fell back to 46000 yuan/ton, indicating heavy selling pressure above. Shanghai copper fell into range oscillation this week, indicating cautious trading. It is suggested that the Shanghai Copper 1707 contract can sell at a high price and absorb at a low price between 45500-46300 yuan, with a stop loss of 500 yuan/ton each. [Jinhuanyu Cable]
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