【 Building materials network 】In the first half of the year, the rubber industry chain was very depressed. The tire manufacturers had a large inventory of finished products and did not have much demand for raw materials, resulting in a continuous decline in rubber prices. However, since August, the market has seen an obvious recovery, with a monthly increase of more than 10%. Can rubber varieties continue to be strong under the pressure of high inventory in the future? Guotai Jun'an Futures Natural rubber Researcher Hu Hui believes that the demand for rubber is currently in a relatively good recovery state, and the second half of the year is dominated by the stock replenishment market, so the price focus will gradually rise in the later period.

Whether the decline of rubber on Wednesday indicates that the market will enter a range of fluctuations, Hu Hui explained that this is the market's expectation that there may be news of the National Reserve's purchase and storage. The expectation is quite uncertain, so there will be long profits to liquidate positions, resulting in a decline in prices. The impact of high inventory pressure on the future market is that it will suppress the height of the rebound market. At present, the potential short-term benefits are mainly the collection and storage of the State Reserve. The results of the state reserve acquisition and storage have not yet come out, and the market is only digesting expectations, which are still vague and uncertain; Once the reserve is better than the market expectation, it will be more beneficial in the short term. Hu Hui believed that after the arrival of the news of the National Reserve's purchase and storage, the rest of September would be a bit volatile or weak, and October might rise again.

As for the future trend of the rubber market, Hu Hui believes that the bottom of rubber has appeared this year, and the price focus should gradually rise in the next time of this year. In the short term, 21500 is a strong resistance to the 1401 contract. In the rest of September, the possibility of price sideways or falling back will be greater, and the price will continue to rise after the correction to 1950-20000. In the second half of the year, it was dominated by the replenishment market, so it believed that the price center would rise.