【 Building materials network 】Recently, domestic cyclical varieties have maintained a strong upward momentum. Although there was some adjustment on Thursday, we believe that their upward trend has not ended, and there is still room for further growth in the future.

Steel: policy recovery drives rebound

After the 1401 contract, the main force of steel in the last cycle, successfully reached the 3700 point mark, this week it broke through 3800 points and reached a new high. The main reason for the outbreak of thread market is that the policy side continues to have good news. Affected by this, short-term steel maintains a strong pattern of shock.

By July, the daily output of crude steel in China had dropped for three consecutive months, but the output was still above 2.1 million tons per day. Since August, the operating rate of enterprises has continued to maintain a high level, and the effect of production reduction is not obvious. On the whole, the supply pressure is still high. However, from the perspective of inventory, steel has always been in the de stocking channel, and as of August 9, it has declined for 21 consecutive weeks. At present, high temperature weather is prevalent in many places in China, which is not conducive to downstream construction. However, the inventory is still reduced, indicating that there is a certain demand in the downstream. At the same time, some users supplement the inventory due to the good expectations in the second half of the year. At present, the inventory has little pressure on the price.

From the perspective of downstream demand, various policies are delivering positive energy in both the real estate industry and infrastructure construction. New data shows that the newly started area of real estate in January July increased by 8.4% year on year, 4.6 percentage points higher than that in the previous month. The market is operating well. On the other hand, the infrastructure construction boom has returned again. After China Railway Corporation added fixed asset investment, local governments also approved urban rail transit construction in succession. As soon as the policy is issued, the market has a strong expectation of economic support. However, we must also see that the implementation of funds will be a necessary condition for the smooth implementation of the policies in the later period. The railway company continues to ease the problem of capital shortage by issuing bonds, while the debt ratio of heavily indebted local governments, even some local governments, has exceeded 100%. It is still necessary to pay attention to how to raise funds for large-scale urban rail transit construction.

To sum up, driven by policy expectations in the short term, TSSG is expected to maintain a strong pattern of shocks. In the medium term, we can focus on policy implementation and fund raising.

Copper: in the mid term rebound market

On August 8, Shanghai copper rose sharply, breaking through the upper edge of 49000-51000 points of the preliminary horizontal consolidation area, forming a breakthrough rising market, and the external copper also rose accordingly, which indicates that although copper prices are still in a long-term decline, a medium-term rebound has been formed, and copper prices will look up to 53800 points for a period of time. From a fundamental point of view, the rebound of copper prices is obviously the result of the recent positive policies of the Chinese government and the improvement of China's economic data in July.

The sharp rebound of copper price is also the concentrated release of technical rebound demand formed by long-term decline. If the strong support level of Shanghai Copper exceeded 52000 points in mid April is used to calculate the decline of this wave, the decline has lasted more than three months, with a decline of 4000 points; If the relative high point at the beginning of the year 53800 is taken as the starting point of the decline, the decline has lasted for six months, with a drop of 5800 points. The sharp decline is bound to generate technical rebound demand, which is one of the reasons for this rebound.

Tianjiao: rebound caused by improvement of supply and demand

The improvement of supply and demand in the industry and the improvement of the investment environment led to a strong rebound in the price of natural rubber.

In terms of supply, domestic Natural rubber Inventories are falling fast. As of the first ten days of August, the rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was only about 300000 tons. In the past two years, the rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has been growing. In May of this year, this inventory was up to 370000 tons. Domestic restrictions on trade financing of natural rubber affected the import of natural rubber. In June, the import of natural rubber was only 130000 tons, a new low in the year; In July, it only recovered to 150000 tons. This is different from the monthly import volume of 200000 tons last year, which is conducive to the de stocking of domestic natural rubber.

In terms of demand, with the acceleration of investment in domestic infrastructure projects, the market demand for heavy trucks and their supporting tires will rise. heavy truck pin The number of vehicles has exceeded 50000 for five consecutive months, an increase of more than 30% over the same period last year. The corresponding tire production and sales are also gradually rising, and tire enterprises are profitable. Among the listed tire enterprises that have published the China News, Guizhou Tire A and Sailun Co., Ltd. and other enterprises have seen their profits grow by more than 50% in half a year.

With the increasing expectation of "stable growth" in China, the supply and demand environment of natural rubber industry chain is likely to be further improved; At the same time, the investment expectation of the market is optimistic. Therefore, the price of natural rubber is expected to rise.