Dr. Schmidt, former General Secretary of the International Rubber Research Organization, held the second session in Qingdao on September 17 Natural rubber The international forum predicted that the global production of natural rubber would increase significantly after 2011 and begin to decline after 2015.
　　
Schmidt said that 11 Asian countries began to replant a large amount of rubber from 2005 to 2008, and most of the replanting took place in these years, and the trees planted in 2005 had no production until 2012, which had an impact on the production of natural rubber. When the price of natural rubber is low, the actual output is lower than the normal output; When prices rise, the actual output is greater than the normal output. Therefore, despite the economic crisis in 2009, the actual output was still greater than the normal output. He predicted that the normal output would rise from 2012 until 2020.
　　
He predicted that the rubber production would not increase before 2012, because the trees planted in 2008 could not be cut before 2012. The trees intensively planted in 2005-2008 will make the output of natural rubber increase significantly in 2011 and 2012, and will begin to decline after 2015.
　　
He believes that the consumption in 2010 was greater than the output, and the price of natural rubber rose. Because the demand in 2011 is still largely higher than the supply, it is estimated that the price of natural rubber will still rise next year. After 2012, the situation will change. Therefore, for producing countries, the growth rate of ordinary output may determine the price.
　　
It is reported that Dr. Schmidt served as the General Secretary of the International Rubber Research Institute from 2005 to 2009, mainly responsible for establishing and updating models to predict the demand and supply of rubber, as well as the natural and synthetic rubber The expected price of. As the initiator, he led the cooperation between the Alliance of Natural Rubber Producers and the national synthetic rubber production institutions.