【 Building materials network 】Based on the macro atmosphere, supply and demand changes and other Analysis and cognition of factors, we have Glass The performance outlook of spot and futures markets is as follows:

From the supply side, it is more likely that the future capacity will slow down. At the beginning of 2019, because the industry profit is still sustainable, the enterprise's maintenance momentum is relatively low. However, with the gradual downward movement of the demand side in the later period, the industry profit will be significantly reduced after the contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, which will lead to the active contraction of capacity. From the time cycle, The problem of overcapacity cannot be properly dealt with overnight.

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From the demand side, the performance of the glass demand side in 2019 will be weaker than that in 2018, mainly because there is room for reduction in the demand for architectural glass, while the increment of cars and exports is relatively limited and accounts for a relatively small proportion. In the medium and long term, the overall pattern of weak demand for low value-added glass is difficult to change, and its internal opportunities are still concentrated in the supply side contraction and upgrading of product structure in some periods of time.

From the cost side, the glass production cost may not increase significantly in 2019. If coal and Soda ash If the price falls back, the profit space of the industry will be opened again, that is, the cost support for the glass price will gradually weaken.

From the perspective of spot price cycle, the current node is at a relatively high level in another cycle, and 2019 will not have much room to rise compared with the current price level. However, based on the low inventory level at the end of the year, the impact of environmental protection policies, and the relatively loose financing of enterprises and other factors, the volatility of prices may be widened, However, a cyclical downward trend may have taken shape.

Based on the above analysis, we mainly focus on selling short at high prices in the formulation of the glass futures investment strategy in 2019. At the same time, we need to pay attention to the choice of time cycle and price level. It is suggested that investors should mainly wait and see or light position test when the futures price of the recent month contract is significantly lower than the spot price of the reference place and the time is within 2 months before delivery; When the futures price is slightly discounted or even at the spot price of the reference place, it is necessary to take the trend short thinking as the main idea, and adjust the position proportion depending on the margin of increase and discount and the market atmosphere. Here, it is particularly emphasized that because of the seasonal rule of glass price, the expected spot price of the corresponding delivery period should be taken into consideration when selecting the spot price target in the basis, rather than just referring to the spot basis value. In addition, it is suggested to reduce intertemporal arbitrage because the fluctuation law of the price difference of intertemporal contracts no longer has an obvious trend. In terms of unilateral speculation, in addition to proper reference to the basis and the upper and lower edges of the range, we still need to pay attention to the changes in the commodity market atmosphere and position structure.

Risk factors mainly exist in the following aspects, such as large fluctuations in the macro-economy, tighter real estate policies than expected or re stimulate the real estate industry, significant production reduction at the supply side, continuous rise in the cost of raw materials and other costs, which will lead to substantial fluctuations in the prices of glass spot and futures. Once the above situations or risks occur, Relevant investment strategies need to be adjusted in time.