• Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting: Most officials believe that it is "probably appropriate" to raise interest rates again
• European Central Bank: Most members support a 25 basis point increase in interest rates
• The Bank of Japan plans to raise the 2023 price rise rate forecast
• The Bank of Israel: will take action in the foreign exchange market as needed
• The Bank of Argentina confirmed to raise the key interest rate to 133%
• Bank of Thailand: interest rates are at a level that supports long-term sustainable growth
• The Philippine Central Bank is still considering raising interest rates in November
• Bank of Nigeria: committed to accelerating efforts to eliminate foreign exchange problems
[Global Central Bank Dynamics]
• According to the minutes of the September FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, "most" Fed officials believe that it is "probably appropriate" to raise interest rates again, and most continue to believe that there is an upward risk to inflation. At the same time, officials generally believe that the risks faced by the target are two-way, not only the threat posed by inflation, but also the threat posed by high interest rates to the economy.
• The New York Federal Reserve survey shows that the one-year inflation expectation of the United States rose to 3.7%, compared with 3.6% previously. The three-year inflation expectation rose from 2.8% to 3.0%.
• The minutes of the September monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank showed that the overwhelming majority of members supported raising interest rates by 25 basis points, and some members tended to maintain interest rates at the current level. It was very difficult to make decisions between raising and suspending interest rates.
• The survey of the European Central Bank shows that the inflation rate of euro zone consumers is expected to be 3.5% in the next 12 months in August and 3.4% in July; The inflation rate in the next three years will be 2.5%, and the survey in July will be 2.4%.
• The Bank of France said that despite the conflict between Palestine and Israel, it still sees an obvious downward trend in inflation, and it is still expected that the inflation rate will remain stable at about 2% by 2025. The interest rate must remain high enough for a long time. At present, the interest rate is still appropriate, and it is not the right way to further increase the interest rate at this stage.
• The Bank of Italy said that Italian residents' deposits in domestic banks fell 5.4% year on year in August and 6.5% in July. Bank of Italy's loans to non-financial companies in August fell 6.2% year on year, the largest drop in history.
• The Bank of Japan plans to raise its 2023 price inflation rate forecast, and has begun to discuss raising the 2023 consumer price inflation rate forecast to nearly 3% from the 2.5% year-on-year increase predicted in July. Bank of Japan Governor Yoshio Ueda said that the Middle East conflict has exacerbated the high uncertainty of the global outlook; Current views on the global economic outlook remain unchanged.
• Japan's "National Bank Capital Settlement Network" system began to malfunction on October 10, resulting in the failure of about 5 million transfers and other transactions in 11 Japanese financial institutions for a period of time. On the morning of October 12 local time, the system was repaired.
• Assistant Chairman of the Federal Reserve of Australia Kent said that the impact of interest rate hikes in the past began to show, or monetary policy needs to be further tightened. The Federal Reserve of Australia is in the third phase of its policy, focusing on the development of data.
• The Bank of Israel said on the 9th that it would take action in the foreign exchange market as needed. The high level of reserves enables the Bank to support the economy in an emergency. At present, it has no intention to sell more than 30 billion dollars of foreign exchange.
• The Bank of Argentina confirmed to raise the key interest rate to 133%. According to the survey results of the Argentine Central Bank, economists predict that the inflation rate in Argentina is expected to be 180.7% by the end of 2023; It is estimated that the GDP in 2023 will shrink by 2.8% compared with the previous year.
• According to the minutes of the Bank of Thailand meeting, Thailand's economy continues to recover. Interest rates are at a level that supports long-term sustainable growth. See the upward risks of government policies on economic growth and inflation.
• Philippine Central Bank Governor Raymond said that he was still considering raising interest rates in November, and did not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates by 25 basis points.
• The Bank of Nigeria said that it would increase the liquidity of Nigeria's foreign exchange market by intervening from time to time; It is committed to accelerating efforts to eliminate foreign exchange problems and will continue to engage in dialogue with stakeholders to solve the problem.
• List of speeches made by Federal Reserve officials last week:
Vice Chairman Jefferson said that it may be too early to say that the Federal Reserve has completed the process of raising interest rates. The rising bond market yield may reflect the strength of the economy, or it may mean risks.
Director Barr pointed out that the U.S. banking system is sound and resilient, and supports the plan to strengthen bank capital ratio requirements. It is proposed that capital increase will mainly affect bank transaction business, with limited impact on bank loan costs.
Director Bauman said that the policy interest rate of the United States may need to rise further, and is monitoring the impact of bank risks due to rising interest rates. Institutional reform may cause financial stability risks.
Logan said that from the perspective of financial market and economic performance, long-term neutral interest rate may be higher.
Huck said that the rising interest costs have brought pressure on the federal budget, and the size of the budget deficit needs to be solved; The possibility of economic recession always exists, but economic downturn is not expected.
Collins said that he did not rule out the possibility of further tightening; The rise of treasury bond yield strengthens the view that the Federal Reserve is at or near the peak of interest rate; CPI data in September shows that it will take time for prices to recover and stabilize; It is too early to say that the inflation rate is falling back to the target of 2% in a sustainable way; See signs of rebalancing of the labor market; Be optimistic that the economy can get out of recession.
Bostik said that the impact of the Israeli conflict on the economy is uncertain, and the Federal Reserve needs to respond flexibly to risks and be ready to adapt to changes. At present, the policy is in a good position to return the inflation rate to 2%. Personally, I don't think it is necessary to raise interest rates, but if the prospect changes, it may be necessary to raise interest rates further.
Kashkari said that if the economy is more flexible, it may need to further raise interest rates; The elasticity of the economy and the job market is stronger than I expected; It is too early to announce a soft landing for the economy.
Daly said that inflation is still high, and the new neutral interest rate of 2.5% - 3% is absolutely conceivable; If market conditions tighten, the Federal Reserve may not need to take so many tightening actions; The tightening environment may be equivalent to another interest rate hike.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's market director Pelley said that there was no indication that the Federal Reserve needed to change its balance sheet plan; The federal funds rate still has influence in the money market, and the Federal Reserve still maintains strong control over short-term interest rates.
• ECB officials' speeches last week:
President Lagarde said that basic inflation in the euro area remained strong and wage growth was at a "historical high", reflecting the fact that the rise in labor costs was offsetting the impact of the past soaring input costs.
Vice President Jin Doss predicted that inflation would continue to slow down in the coming months; The economic growth rate in the second half of the year may be close to zero; The interest rate may remain at the current level for a period of time, and the future interest rate decision of the European Central Bank will depend on the data.
Management Committee Cassacs said that any interest rate increase in the future will be relatively small. The period of rapid interest rate rise has passed, and interest rate increase may be suspended. When the inflation prospect is below 2% for a long time, interest rate can be cut.
Senteno, the management committee, said that it is necessary to maintain predictability in policy; At present, we have not seen the impact of the new round of Palestinian Israeli conflict on the data; It is necessary to maintain the stability of the labor market and flexibly adjust policies according to data performance.
Holzman, the management committee, said that if all goes well, the European Central Bank's interest rate hike may end. However, if additional shocks occur, interest rates may have to be raised once or twice.
Hernandez Decos, the management committee, said that if the interest rate is maintained for a long enough time, the inflation target can be reached; Do not want to promise the future interest rate path in advance; GDP may show negative growth in the third quarter.
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the Bank of England may need to raise interest rates at least once again and keep them unchanged for most of next year; The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points to 5.5%, and then suspend interest rate hikes. There is no factor that will force Japan to intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the yen. The depreciation of the yen is mainly driven by interest rate differentials, reflecting the economic fundamentals under the background of rising inflation rates in other countries and the Bank of Japan's adherence to ultra loose policies.
• Dansk Bank pointed out that the inflation drivers are still mixed, but the inflation rate of the United States and the euro area may decline in 2023. Potential inflation and wage growth in the United States have begun to slow down, but they are still stuck in the euro zone. The tight labor market will continue to support the upward risk of core inflation in these two regions in the future. Most western central banks have now ended their interest rate raising cycles. Consumers' short-term inflation expectations have eased, especially in the United States, but they are still slightly higher than the pre epidemic level. In the past month, the long-term inflation expectation of the US market has risen slightly, but it is still in line with the goal of the Federal Reserve.
• The research report of BOCOM International pointed out that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in the end of the interest rate rise. The financial situation has significantly tightened in the recent period, making it less necessary to raise interest rates in November. However, whether to raise interest rates subsequently depends to some extent on the economic data such as the US inflation in September and the US GDP growth rate in the third quarter. As the US economy is still resilient, inflation is still high, and employment is still tight, the bank believes that the Federal Reserve is still likely to make the last increase in the year, and the probability of interest rate rise in December may be higher than that in November. After the FOMC meeting in September, the 10-year interest rate of US Treasuries once rose to above 4.8% from 4.35% before the meeting. The tightening of financial conditions reduced the need for further interest rate hikes expressed by several Federal Reserve officials, including the ever hawkish director Waller, who suggested that the Federal Reserve might choose to hold its ground at the November interest rate meeting.
• Bruna Skarica, an economist at Morgan Stanley Research, wrote in a report that the Bank of England may keep interest rates unchanged in the face of economic slowdown and reduced price pressure. The latest data shows that the British economy rebounded slightly in August thanks to the boost of the service industry and the fading of the strike action and bad weather last month. The British economy seems to be losing momentum rather than shrinking, and should be flat in September and beyond. However, downside risks still exist. With the loosening of the labor market reducing the pressure of wages on prices, the Bank of England should not consider further interest rate increases, and may cut interest rates from next May.
• Naomi Mugurum, a strategist of Mitsubishi UFJ, revised her main assumptions on the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and predicted that YCC and negative interest rates would be cancelled at the meeting in January 2024. The main reason for the revision is that the Bank of Japan is increasingly confident in its ability to achieve the "positive income expenditure cycle" and the "positive wage price cycle". Muguruma took into account the view expressed by members of the Bank of Japan's Policy Committee that the sustainability of wage growth can be judged before the results of the labor negotiations are announced next spring. Even if the Bank of Japan has enough information and data to make a decision, it will not forcibly decide to cancel the negative interest rate policy at the meeting in January if the long-term interest rate is unstable.
22:30 The Bank of Canada releases its quarterly report on business outlook survey and consumer expectation survey
22:30 Huck, Chairman of the FOMC Voting Committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve in 2023, delivered a speech on economic prospects
04:30 Huck, Chairman of the FOMC Voting Committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve, delivered a speech on economic prospects in 2023
08:30 The RBA released the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting
20: 00 FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams delivered a speech at the New York Economic Club
22:45 Balkin, the FOMC vote committee and chairman of Richmond Federal Reserve in 2024, delivered a speech on economic prospects
05:00 The 2023 FOMC Voting Committee and Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkari attended a discussion
06:30 Chairman of the Federal Reserve of Australia Bullock delivers a speech
00:00 Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech on economic prospects
00:30 FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams delivered a speech
02:00 The Federal Reserve announces the economic situation in Beige Book
03:15 In 2023, the FOMC Voting Committee and the Chairman of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Huck delivered a speech on the labor challenge
06:55 Lisa Cook, Director of the Federal Reserve, delivers a speech on the mission of the Federal Reserve
09:00 Bank of Korea announces interest rate resolution
15: 20 Bank Indonesia announces interest rate resolution
00:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers a speech at the New York Economic Club
01:20 In 2023, FOMC Voting Committee and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goolsbee participated in the Q&A session of an activity
01:30 Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivers a speech on the stress test
04:00 Bostock, the vote committee of FOMC and chairman of Atlanta Federal Reserve in 2024, delivered a speech on the topic of "the role of policy in solving inequality"
05:30 Huck, Chairman of the FOMC Voting Committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve, delivered a speech on economic prospects in 2023
06:40 2023 FOMC Voting Committee and Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan delivered a speech
07:00 The 2023 FOMC Voting Committee and Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan delivered a speech
14: 35 Bank of Japan Governor Yoshio Ueda delivers a speech
21:00 The Bank of Italy releases its quarterly economic bulletin
21:00 Huck, Chairman of the 2023 FOMC Voting Committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve, delivers a speech on economic prospects
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