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Author: Wang Li

Produced by: Global Finance

In the disclosure quarter of the annual report, Liu Jianjun, the president of the Postal Savings Bank in 2023, will still lead the performance conference, and he will still act as the chairman in the annual report.

In less than a month, Liu Jianjun will serve as the acting chairman for two years, which has been seriously overdue. However, the speculation in major media in April last year that Zheng Guoyu, who resigned as the vice president of ICBC and became the new general manager of China Post Group, or will serve as the chairman of the Postal Savings Bank has not been settled.

When did the head of the Postal Savings Bank make his debut? From the current point of view, it seems to be very calm. There is no more news spread, and this matter was not mentioned at the performance conference.

It must have been hard for Liu Jianjun to "shoulder" two of the most important positions in the past two years, but fortunately, the development momentum of the Postal Savings Bank in the past two years is still good, and the 2023 transcript does not say good, but certainly passes.

The investment interest income has exceeded the loan

In 2023, the performance of Postal Savings Bank will achieve double growth, but the growth rate is not high. The operating revenue will be 342.507 billion yuan, up 2.25% year on year; The net profit was 86.424 billion yuan, up 1.25% year on year. Of which, the interest income was 498.327 billion yuan, an increase of 24.087 billion yuan or 5.08% year on year,

It is not easy to achieve growth. According to the analysis of Global Finance, the current interest income of Postal Savings Bank can achieve growth, which is driven by the scale factor. Among them, the loan scale growth and interest rate downward factors offset to obtain a positive interest income of 10.273 billion yuan, and the investment scale factor and interest rate factor offset to obtain a positive interest income of 10.657 billion yuan. Obviously, the capacity of the scale factor of loans is weakening. The interest income of loans due to the scale is far higher than that of investment scale. However, due to the continuous decline of the loan yield, the final interest income has been lower than that of investment.

Therefore, the main income factor of Postal Savings Bank can be summarized as the growth of loan and investment scale.

As of the end of the reporting period, the Bank's total assets amounted to 15.73 trillion yuan, up 11.80% year on year. Of which, the net loan of customers was 7.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 937.535 billion yuan or 13.44% over the end of the previous year; Financial investment was 5.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 428.689 billion yuan or 8.64% over the end of the previous year. In terms of structure, the net amount of customer loans accounted for 50.33% of the total assets, an increase of 0.73 percentage points over the end of the previous year; Financial investment accounted for 34.26% of total assets, down 0.99 percentage points from the end of last year.

At the same time, the deposit growth rate of the Bank will be lower than the loan growth rate in 2023, and the deposit growth rate of the Bank will be 9.76% year-on-year in 2023. Although the deposit loan ratio of the bank has been further improved, the level is still low. In 2023, the deposit loan ratio of the Postal Savings Bank will increase by 1.68 percentage points, but only 58.39%.

Liu Jianjun said at the performance meeting that the total amount of loans will maintain a moderate growth in 2024, and basically arranged a credit growth scale similar to that of the previous year.

The business and management fees increased year on year. In 2023, the business and management fees will be 222.015 billion yuan, an increase of 16.31 billion yuan or 7.93% year on year. The main driving factor of the growth is the growth of savings agency fees and others. The savings agency fees and others increased by 12.4% year on year, while the employee fees only increased by 1.81% year on year. The increase of deposit agency fees and others is mainly due to the increase in the scale of individual customer deposits absorbed by postal agency outlets. Postal agency outlets are indeed very effective in collecting deposits.

The Postal Savings Bank has a special operation and management mode, namely "self operation+agency". Almost every comment on the Postal Savings Bank can not get around this feature. The Postal Savings Bank mainly focuses on agency outlets in county areas. It can be said that the agency outlets provide the Postal Savings Bank with a long-term stable source of funds and a deep sinking customer base.

Vice President Xu Xueming revealed at the performance meeting that the agency rate fell by 3 BPs and the interest payment rate of individual deposits fell by 9 BPs last year. In 2022, the bank adjusted the deposit agency rate once and also formulated a new passive trigger standard. According to the annual reports disclosed by the four major banks this year, the Postal Savings Bank may be at the time of adjustment again.

"With the rapid decline of interest rates and the sharp narrowing of inter-bank net interest margin, we began to prepare for a new round of adjustment since the second half of last year." Xu Xueming said at the performance meeting. He also said that he would, according to the agency framework agreement, perform the corresponding corporate governance procedures within the specified time from the date of triggering the passive adjustment, and complete the adjustment of agency fees in a timely manner.

Increased asset quality risk

The non-performing loan ratio of Postal Savings Bank is basically at the lowest level among state-owned banks. As of the end of the reporting period, the non-performing loan ratio of the bank was 0.83%, down 0.01 percentage points from the end of last year.

However, with the expansion of the loan scale, the risk of asset quality of the bank is also increasing significantly. For example, although the non-performing rate was lower than the same period last year, it was higher than the previous three quarters.

The provision coverage rate has also been declining in recent years. It will be 347.57% at the end of 2023, down 37.94 percentage points from the same period last year. In 2021, the bank's provision coverage rate will be 418.61%.

From the perspective of the five level classification of loans, the bank's balance of special mention, sub category, suspicious category and loss category loans is rising, and the migration rate of special mention, sub category and suspicious category is also rising, which means that the risk of non-performing loans rising in the future is large. The balance of non-performing loans in 2023 is also obviously growing, and only because of the expansion of the base of loan scale can the non-performing loan rate be maintained.

With the rapid growth of loan scale, the corresponding provision for loan impairment has also increased. In recent three years, the bank's provision for loan impairment has increased.

In terms of overdue loans, except for those overdue for more than 3 years, the balance of other types of short-term and medium-term overdue loans is growing, which means that the risk of non-performing growth in the future is still large.

From the perspective of non-performing rate of loans classified by industry, the highest non-performing rate of the bank is other personal consumer loans. The growth of non-performing personal loans is a common problem facing the banking industry at present. Among corporate loans, the highest non-performing rate is the real estate industry.

In terms of risk control, the Postal Savings Bank had to strengthen management, and the number of tickets remained high every year. According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter of this year, the Postal Savings Bank topped the list of bank penalties with fines and confiscations of more than 17 million yuan.

Last year, the senior management of state-owned banks changed a lot, but the chairman of the Postal Savings Bank, who had been vacant for nearly two years, was still quietly vacant.

On April 25, 2022, the Postal Savings Bank announced that Zhang Jinliang resigned as chairman, non-executive director, chairman and member of the strategic planning committee of the board of directors due to job transfer. The resignation takes effect on the same day.

Since then, Liu Jianjun has started the "shoulder to shoulder" mode. According to the Measures for the Implementation of Administrative Licensing Matters of Chinese funded Commercial Banks promulgated by the original CBRC, "the time for performing duties on behalf of Chinese funded commercial banks shall not exceed six months. Chinese funded commercial banks should select qualified personnel to take office within six months."

On April 1 last year, China Post announced that the company held a leadership (enlarged) meeting on March 31. Entrusted by the leaders of the Organization Department of the Central Committee, the leaders of the Cadre Bureau of the Organization Department of the Central Committee announced the decision of the Central Committee on the appointment of the general manager of China Post Group Co., Ltd. Zheng Guoyu was appointed as the director, general manager and deputy secretary of the Party Leadership Group of China Post Group Co., Ltd. and removed from his post as the executive director, deputy president and member of the Party Committee of ICBC. The appointment and removal of relevant posts shall be handled in accordance with relevant laws and the Articles of Association.

At that time, many media reports speculated that Zheng Guoyu would be the chairman of the Postal Savings Bank. But so far, there is no new news.

How long will Liu Jianjun's "shoulder picking" last?

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