Distinguished guests, experts and scholars:

While the whole country is earnestly studying a series of important speeches of General Secretary Xi Jinping on the establishment of a modern Chinese financial system, Renmin University of China has decided to establish the Shenzhen Institute of Finance and hold the first Shenzhen Financial Forum. In this regard, I would like to express my warm congratulations! With the support of the Shenzhen Municipal Party Committee and the Shenzhen Municipal Government, the Shenzhen Institute of Higher Finance established by Renmin University of China will play an important role in cultivating high-level financial talents, promoting the comprehensive construction of the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area, and promoting high-quality financial development.

The theme of this forum is "high-quality development and financial development path with Chinese characteristics", In my opinion, the most important thing to promote high-quality financial development is to establish and improve the modern Chinese financial system, maintain an appropriate and effective supply of money and credit, promote a reasonable financing structure, and focus on the real economy services to do a good job in financial services.

In December 1993, the State Council issued the Decision on the Reform of the Financial System, proposing to establish a financial system compatible with the socialist market and set three reform goals. Since then, it has specifically proposed to establish a strict and effective financial supervision system. In 1997 and 2002, the National Financial Working Conference put forward the idea of "building a modern financial system in China", which is an extension of the goal of financial system reform in 1993. The financial system in this historical period is to support the realization of a well-off society in an all-round way.

In his report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, General Secretary Xi Jinping announced to the world that China has built a moderately prosperous society at a high level and started to build a Chinese style modernization in 2020. Chinese style modernization requires not only building a high-level socialist market economy system and a modern economy, but also developing modern society and culture, promoting the coordinated development of man and nature, and promoting the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind. To this end, It is necessary to establish and improve a modern Chinese financial system in order to adapt to and support the Chinese style modernization.

In January this year, the central government held a special seminar on finance for provincial and ministerial level leading cadres, whose theme was "Promoting high-quality financial development". General Secretary Xi Jinping's speech at the seminar was mainly about building a modern Chinese financial system. So I think, The modern Chinese financial system plays the role of the basic financial system in promoting high-quality economic development. It is predicted that the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee held in July this year will include the establishment of a modern Chinese financial system and the acceleration of the construction of a financial power in relevant documents.

Two important speeches by General Secretary Xi Jinping systematically clarified the theory, road, goal and important task of building a modern Chinese financial system. He proposed that: to establish a modern Chinese financial system, we must follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics, with the goal of building a financial power; Financial power should have six core elements; The modern Chinese financial system includes six pillar systems with different requirements: financial regulation, financial market, financial institutions, financial supervision, financial products and services, and financial infrastructure. To establish a modern Chinese financial system, we should accelerate the reform and opening up of the financial industry at the same time, and actively carry forward the Chinese financial culture. To establish a modern Chinese financial system, we should take three steps. The important speech of General Secretary Xi Jinping scientifically answered a series of important theoretical and practical questions about the development of the financial industry. It is an important part of Xi Jinping's economic thought and opened a new era of reform and development of China's financial industry. We should study these important speeches in depth in connection with reality.

What is a financial power? Financial power refers to a country whose financial strength and influence are leading the world level based on its economic strength and advanced technology. In the same historical period, there may be several financial powers in the world, the strongest of which is the financial hegemon in a monopoly position. Some experts and We Media compare China's major financial data with that of the United States and believe that it will take several generations for China to become a financial power, and the goal is far from being achieved. This is wrong. To build China into a financial power is to make China's financial strength and influence take the lead in the world, rather than catch up with the United States. General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed that the construction of China's financial power should take three steps to build a modern financial power with global leading comprehensive financial strength and influence by the middle of this century.

To establish a modern financial system with Chinese characteristics, we should follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics and achieve "eight insistences" 。 First, adhere to the leadership of the Communist Party of China. I have a deep understanding of this. In November 1997, the Central Committee decided to strengthen the centralized and unified leadership of the Party organizations in the national financial system; The central government decided to divest 2.28 trillion non-performing loans and inject 80 billion US dollars to create conditions for state-owned commercial banks to carry out shareholding reform. At the end of 2002, four state-owned commercial banks were insolvent as a whole, but within eight years, the four state-owned commercial banks had become listed companies. Ranked by core capital, it has ranked among the top 4 banks in the world for many consecutive years. After the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the provincial (district, city) committees set up financial committees and financial work committees, providing a strong political guarantee for the establishment of a modern Chinese financial system and the building of a financial power in the future.

To build a financial power, we need to have six core elements and establish six pillar systems. From now on, we should choose the key points and constantly enhance the strength and influence of various core elements in the world.

We should develop the RMB into an international currency with the largest money supply and the most stable currency value and exchange rate in the world. The data provided by SWIFT cannot be used to evaluate the internationalization status of RMB. At the end of the first quarter of this year, RMB settlement accounted for 4.2%, ranking fourth in the world. However, if China's cross-border RMB settlement is incorporated into the comparison, this proportion will rise significantly. The currency composition in the IMF SDR is 12.28% yuan and 7.44% sterling. According to comprehensive assessment, the influence of RMB internationalization is equal to or more than that of sterling. We will expand RMB foreign investment, reduce the trade surplus in goods to less than 2% of GDP, and achieve a basic balance between imports and exports until a slight deficit. It is predicted that by 2035, the influence of RMB internationalization will be the third in the world.

Establish a modern central bank system, strengthen the position and function of the central bank, and improve the ability to regulate powerful currencies. Improve the position and role of China's central bank in international financial governance. China is the first country in the world to use paper money. It is suggested to set up a national financial museum to expand the influence of China's financial culture in the world.

Promote the strategic transformation of large financial enterprises and cultivate transnational financial groups with international competitiveness. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council will centrally formulate the special development plan for Shanghai International Financial Center. It is expected that by 2035, the proportion of foreign capital holding stocks and bonds in Shanghai's financial market will increase from about 3% now to about 10%. Consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's international financial position. We should not only hold the bottom line of avoiding systemic financial risks, but also effectively resist the impact of international or regional financial crises on China, so as to ensure national financial security. According to Xi Jinping's financial statement, Supplement and revise relevant financial textbooks of financial colleges and universities, and train China's in-service financial executives And make it conscientiously innovate in the construction of Chinese modern financial system.

Keep the money supply moderate and provide a good financial macro environment for promoting high-quality financial development. For a long time, the central bank has implemented a prudent monetary policy, which has effectively promoted the stable growth of China's economy.

At the same time, We should see the current trend of declining efficiency in the use of monetary and credit funds. This is mainly reflected in: First, the correlation coefficient between the loan growth rate and GDP growth rate of each province, from 0.67 in 2015-2019 to 0.56 in 2020-2022, and further reduced to 0.2 in 2023. Second, some funds are idle arbitrage between large enterprises and financial institutions. Some central enterprises and leading private enterprises take advantage of price negotiation to "lend low and save high", or borrow funds through financial companies to earn interest margins. Third, through borrowing new funds to repay old ones or continuous delays, huge credit funds have accumulated in real estate enterprises and local government financing platforms. There are many reasons for the above problems, which need the close cooperation of the relevant departments of the State Council. As far as the central bank is concerned, attention should be paid to the connection between short-term operations in the current period and the realization of long-term management objectives.

It is suggested that the central bank should announce the expected growth targets of money supply and social financing at the beginning of the year. In March 2024, the Government Work Report proposed that "the scale of social financing, money supply and expected targets of economic growth and price level match each other". In my opinion, "matching" is only qualitative, and there should also be quantitative expectations. From 2020 to 2023, the stock of social financing scale will increase by 10.7% annually, the balance of money supply (M2) will increase by 10.1% annually, and the nominal GDP will increase by 7.53% annually. The growth rate of the latter is about 3 percentage points lower than the first two. The central bank can set and publish the annual social financing scale and the quantitative growth target of money supply at the beginning of the year according to the country's predetermined economic and price growth goals, plus the need for reasonable and sufficient liquidity, that is, the social financing scale and money supply are about 2 percentage points higher than the economic growth and price growth. Depending on the implementation result, it can be adjusted in the third quarter according to the approval procedure. Improve banking services and reduce reserved deposits of enterprises. At the same time, the financial regulatory authority monitors the liquidity of commercial banks' credit funds on a quarterly basis (cumulative loans granted ÷ cumulative loans recovered).

Reasonably control the deposit loan interest margin of commercial banks. The formation of commercial bank loan interest rate market is determined by deposit interest rate and operation and management cost, and a certain level of net asset profit rate should be given to commercial banks to stabilize the reasonable income of shareholders and the ability of commercial banks to supplement capital. Now, China has the conditions to gradually implement the low interest rate policy. However, I think the deposit interest rate should still be higher than the price rise, and maintain a certain positive interest rate in order to protect the rights and interests of depositors and stabilize the capital source of commercial banks. It is suggested that interest rates should play a better role in macro financial regulation.

Give full play to the role of interest rate policy in financial macro-control. After 2015, the Central Bank guided the formation of the market interest rate level through the Shanghai lending market interest rate, the commercial bank loan market quoted interest rate and the central bank's refinancing interest rate, which is a great progress. However, on the whole, it is complicated. It is difficult for domestic and foreign enterprises and residents to visualize the interest rate policy of the Central Bank, which is not conducive to the formation of interest rate expectations. In his speech at the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed that "we should enrich the monetary policy toolbox and gradually increase the purchase and sale of national debt in the open market operation of the central bank". On April 23, the article released by the Party Group of the Ministry of Finance also proposed to support the Central Bank to gradually increase the purchase and sale of treasury bonds in open market operations. At the end of 2023, the balance of national debt is 30.3 trillion yuan, and the central bank holds 1.52 trillion yuan. In addition to the long-term special national debt raised to enrich the capital of commercial banks, there is only 170 billion yuan. It is suggested that the state should appropriately expand the issuance of national debt In particular, the issuance of 6-month and 1-year short-term treasury bonds to urban and rural residents has increased significantly, increasing investment channels for urban and rural residents, obtaining stable returns, and creating conditions for the central bank to guide market interest rates through more buying and selling short-term treasury bonds.

As early as the third national financial work conference in 2012, it was proposed to adjust the structure of the financial industry and expand the scale of the securities and insurance industries. However, so far, little has been achieved. By the end of 2023, although the proportion of direct financing will rise to 38%, it is mainly debt financing, and the proportion of stock financing will only account for 3%. The central state-owned enterprises have reached 67% and are on the rise. The ability of social funds to transform into enterprise capital is too low, which leads to China's long-term "capital anemia", which is very unfavorable to the establishment of a modern Chinese financial system and the promotion of high-quality financial development 。 First, it is not conducive to the central bank's macro-control, leading to the central bank's monetary policy can only be relaxed; Second, it has reduced the ability of enterprises to cope with inflation and financial crisis; Third, it is difficult for enterprise groups to extend the industrial chain through merger and reorganization due to insufficient capital; Fourth, it is not conducive to improving the international competitiveness of Chinese enterprises.

General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that China's financial system has a large scale, but the fund allocation is not balanced and the financing structure is unreasonable. It can be said that there is no shortage of funds and capital. The key is to improve the financing efficiency, and focus on solving the problems of "uneven happiness" and "more money but less capital", and patient capital shortage.

To this end, We should vigorously develop the securities and insurance industries. The securities industry converts long-term social funds into enterprise capital, and more than 30% of insurance funds can be used for investment in enterprises. By the end of 2023, the market value of China's listed companies will only account for 63% of GDP; The amount of insurance assets ranks second in the world. However, the per capita insurance income (insurance density) is only 3635 yuan, and the proportion of insurance industry income in the total economic volume (insurance depth) is only 4.07%, less than half of the world average. These are far from the goal of building a financial power. To develop the securities and insurance industries, we should conscientiously implement a series of policies and regulations of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, and give full play to the business functions of existing securities companies and insurance companies. In addition, I think it is necessary to open up a new way for the development of the securities industry and the insurance industry, that is, to support large financial enterprises to concentrate their efforts on the main business, and at the same time, to set up wholly-owned or affiliated companies to handle the securities industry and the insurance industry.

This proposal may be controversial. However, two articles should be made clear. First, the national "11th Five Year Plan", "12th Five Year Plan" and "13th Five Year Plan" development plans have always clearly defined the need to steadily promote the pilot comprehensive operation of large financial enterprises. Second, large commercial banks set up securities and insurance businesses by setting up wholly-owned or affiliated subsidiaries, which is not "mixed operation", but "separate operation". Now, financial group holding companies can set up securities companies, such as CITIC Securities. Up to now, the establishment of securities companies by large commercial banks has not been approved. By the end of 2023, the number of wholly foreign-owned or holding securities companies has grown to 10, including 4 wholly foreign-owned securities companies established by foreign banks and financial groups, which are still in the process of increasing.

The pilot project of comprehensive operation of large commercial banks in China has made slow progress. By the end of 2023, the total assets of the five major commercial banks will be 169 trillion yuan, and the total assets of non bank financial companies will only account for 2.23%, 0.11 percentage points lower than that of 2019. In my opinion, it is not only necessary but also conditional for large commercial banks to set up subsidiaries and handle the securities industry and insurance industry in accordance with the Securities Law and the Insurance Law. Therefore, in order to change the problem of "more money but less capital" and patient capital shortage in China, it is suggested that the relevant departments should objectively summarize the comprehensive operation pilot work of large commercial banks in China over the past 18 years, objectively evaluate the risks of comprehensive operation of large commercial banks, strictly implement risk management control, and establish the development direction of comprehensive operation of large commercial banks in China in the future. I also hope that the Shenzhen Institute of Finance, Renmin University of China, will list "comprehensive management of large financial enterprises" as a research topic.

This afternoon's sub forum will mainly discuss five major articles on financial services (hereinafter referred to as "five financial services"). Here, I would like to make some simple comments on the common problems of doing a good job in five financial services.

First, the business nature of the five financial services. The five financial services are different from conventional financial services. They should not only adhere to the operating rules of the financial industry, but also reflect the sociality and public welfare of this service. The five financial businesses are special financial services independently operated by financial enterprises under the guidance and support of governments at all levels, rather than being simply summarized as policy businesses of the financial sector.

The second is to do a good job in five financial services. We should highlight the key points, from easy to difficult. Science and technology finance We should provide full chain and life-cycle financial services for technology-based enterprises, especially develop venture capital funds and property rights investment funds, and promote the transformation of scientific research achievements into products. Green finance We should vigorously support the research, promotion and application of clean energy to help achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Inclusive finance We should help micro enterprises and individuals to continuously improve their net income. Now watch the CCTV news broadcast. All the reports about "agriculture, countryside and farmers" will show farmers' professional cooperatives, which shows the vigorous development of farmers' cooperatives. We should continue to implement the spirit of the No. 1 Document issued by the central government for many years, summarize and expand the pilot project of new rural cooperative finance, and return the income from credit cooperation in farmers' cooperatives to farmers tax-free. Pension finance We should vigorously support the third pillar of old-age insurance. The pilot program in 36 cities across the country lasted more than a year. By the end of 2023, 40.3 million people had opened accounts for individual pension insurance, and the coverage rate was far higher than expected. However, only 9 million people had deposited funds, and only 18.2 billion yuan had been deposited. We should activate the capital market and increase long-term hedging products. It is suggested to improve the management measures, such as increasing the contribution of participants aged 50-60 from 12000 yuan to 24000 yuan a year, and not paying tax on capital gains when receiving pensions. Digital Finance , not only promote the business transformation of financial enterprises, provide convenience and competitiveness, but also support enterprises and individuals to promote applicable digital technology.

The third is to establish and improve the management system of five financial services. The relevant departments of the State Council shall define the concept and scope of five financial services, formulate guidance for each financial service, and formulate special management measures for some financial services. Large financial enterprises can set up business departments or professional branches in the headquarters. The funds for carrying out the five financial services come from the relevant financial enterprises, and the central bank can also provide appropriate re loans; Five financial services are subject to capital protection and meager profits. When necessary, finance at all levels will subsidize interest or set up five financial service risk reserves. Regularly count and publish the service volume of the five financial services, and set up sub accounts for special financial services with large business volume, so as to monitor the development of the five financial services.

The establishment of a modern Chinese financial system will inevitably face various challenges. First of all, we should properly handle the financial risks of real estate and local debt risks, and maintain the steady development of domestic finance. Secondly, we should resolutely respond to the intimidation and obstruction of the financial hegemons in building China into a financial power. We firmly believe that under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee, China will gradually establish and improve a modern Chinese financial system, accelerate the financial construction of a powerful country, and realize modernization and national rejuvenation.

Important! Important! Important!