Top Financial Network (www.58188. com) 2024-5-17 2:20:21:

　　 Leberteco

　　 Mass spectrometer sales volume increased and organic analysis product line expanded

Maintain the "overweight" rating. Due to the decrease of the net profit base in 2023 and the long R&D cycle of analytical instrument technology, we reduced the company's 2024-2025 forecast net profit by 38 (original 0.53)/0.56 (original 84)/079 million yuan respectively in 2026. According to comparable companies, the company will be given four times P/S in 2024, and the target price will be lowered to 29.19 yuan (original 50.19 yuan). Maintain the "overweight" rating. In 2023, the revenue of the three main businesses will increase, and the gross profit margin will decrease slightly. The impact of goodwill impairment will lead to the performance being slightly lower than expected. 1) In 2023, the company will achieve revenue of 416 million yuan, up 17% year on year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.56 million yuan, down 38% year on year. The increase in revenue was due to the year-on-year growth of 15%, 11% and 10% respectively in laboratory analytical instruments, clean and environmental laboratory solutions, and consumer parts and services. Under the influence of market price competition and depreciation of new product lines, the comprehensive gross profit margin declined slightly, and the performance in 2023 was slightly lower than expected, superimposed on the goodwill impairment of CDS. 2) In 2024Q1, the revenue will reach 105 million yuan, up 9% year on year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.57 million yuan, down 10% year on year, basically in line with expectations. High end ICP-MS/MS mass spectrometers have been delivered, expanding the layout of organic analytical instrument product lines. 1) Mass spectrometer: The sales volume of quadrupole mass spectrometer increased by 167% year on year, entering the stage of large-scale production. ICP-MS/MS has been delivered. The ICP quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometer has passed the practical application verification of customers in the semiconductor industry. 2) Gas chromatography-mass spectrometer: two single quadrupole mass spectrometer principle prototypes have been completed, and they have been started up successfully. On the basis of full coverage of inorganic product lines, the layout of organic instrument product lines has been broadened. The first assessment of equity incentive has been completed, and the growth is expected from 2024 to 2025. The 2023 assessment target value of the equity incentive plan has been completed. The growth rate of the operating income or net profit of the target value of the assessment in the attribution period of 2024 and 2025 shall not be less than 30% and 45% respectively, and the growth of the company in 2024-2025 is expected. Risk tip: the risk of technology iteration and the risk of subsidy policy change.

　　 Doctor's glasses

　　 Updated report: high base leads to pressure, and we look forward to stabilizing and improving

Maintain overweight. Q1's revenue was 296 million yuan/-4.47%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 25 million yuan/-32.9%, which met previous expectations. Maintain the forecast that the EPS in 2024-26 will be 0.91/1.1/1.32 yuan, the growth rate will be 23/22/20%, the target price will be 21.39 yuan, and the increase will be maintained. After the dithering, the revenue was stable and the expenses increased. 1) Q1 local life transformation stores wrote off revenue of 14 million yuan/-54.6% (online total of 38 million yuan/- 25.3%). Due to changes in platform traffic support policy/online peer competition diversion/offline store sales carrying capacity and other impacts, Q1's revenue increased by 1.26% after excluding Qiaoyin; 2) Q1 gross profit rate is 59%/-0.5pct, net profit rate is 8.5%/-3.87pct; 3) The expense rate is 47.8%/+4pct, of which the sales/management/finance/R&D expense rate is 39.7/7.21/0.54/0.35%, respectively,+3.31/+0.29/+0.06/+0.35pct; 4) The net operating cash flow was 59 million yuan/-33.8%, which was affected by the decline in revenue scale and the increase in stock. Promote franchise matters and plan to pay dividends in the middle of 2024. 1) By the end of Q1, there were 9134 users who had completed the registration process on the concrete glasses alliance platform (the original Jinglian e-shop platform), and 598 franchise store users who had completed the franchise signing process; In the future, it will gradually optimize the franchise mechanism, enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of franchise stores, and strengthen the hematopoietic capacity of franchise businesses; 2) The dividend is planned to be distributed in the middle of 2024 (including half a year and the first three quarters) or before the Spring Festival, and the upper limit of the current cumulative dividend is 60% of the net profit attributable to the parent company. Optimize the organizational structure to enable growth, and look forward to the layout of smart glasses. 1) The new data operation department and user operation department are expected to further enhance the organizational efficiency; 2) We have reached cooperation with Thunderbird, ROKID, Meizu, etc., and hope to promote the business layout of smart glasses matching. On April 12, MYVUAR smart glasses officially entered the company's offline stores nationwide; 3) Private brands and functional lenses are expected to continue to grow rapidly. Risk tips: store expansion, franchise business, smart glasses layout is not as expected, competition intensifies, etc

　　 AVIC High tech

　　 Sufficient business resilience and long-term prosperity

Event description The company released 2024Q1 quarterly report, and achieved revenue of 1.317 billion yuan in 24Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 5.22% and a month on month growth of 13.86%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 351 million, up 4.95% year on year and 87.64% month on month; Net profit excluding non attributable to parent company was 351 million, up 7.76% year on year and 71.44% month on month. Event comment The short-term change in demand rhythm slowed down the growth of revenue, and the steady increase in profitability demonstrated business resilience. 24Q1 The company's aviation new material business achieved a revenue of 1.305 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.05%. The growth slowed down in stages or was mainly due to the current transition period of new and old models and short-term changes in demand rhythm; The equipment business realized an operating revenue of 3.6811 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.88%, which is still in the stage of product upgrading. On the profit side, 24Q1's aviation new material business realized a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 365 million, up 4.95% year on year, and the equipment business realized a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB -8755100, up 520800 year on year. In 24Q1, the company's profitability slightly improved, with a gross profit margin of 41.21%, up 0.7 pcts year on year and 6.64 pcts month on month; The period expense rate was 9%, down 0.17 pcts year on year and 4.99 pcts month on month; The net profit rate on sales was 26.87%, up 0.39 pcts year on year and 10.54 pcts month on month. Contractual liabilities are still at a low level, waiting for demand recovery, and looking ahead to expand production to ensure future equipment delivery and business development needs. At the end of 24Q1, the balance of the company's contractual liabilities was 62 million, up 11.81% month on month, but still at a historical low, or reflecting that a new round of downstream demand has not yet materialized. In this context, the company is still actively doing a good job in capacity reserves to lay a solid foundation for ensuring future equipment delivery and business expansion. As of the end of 24Q1, the balance of construction in progress and fixed assets of the company was 275 million and 1023 million respectively, and the balance of construction in progress was at a historical high. At present, the company's projects under construction include the construction of a new prepreg production plant and a material storage and distribution center in Beijing Shunyi Aviation Industrial Park, as well as the reconstruction and construction of the wire laying room of No. 5 aviation industrial compound plant. The construction has been steadily progressing. In the past 24 years, the company's business objectives were low or affected by the pace of equipment delivery. In history, it has exceeded its profit objectives for many times. In 2024, the Company aims to achieve an operating revenue of 5 billion yuan, an increase of 4.60% over the actual value of 23 years, and a total profit of 1.282 billion yuan, an increase of 5.69% over the actual value of 23 years. The company's revenue growth target for 24 years is low or mainly because the annual delivery volume of some major downstream models is in the later stage of the climb, and the overall growth rate is slowing, while the new generation models have not yet reached the level of mass delivery; The total profit growth target is low but still higher than the revenue growth target, reflecting the company's profitability. Historically, the company's total profit target over the years is relatively conservative, and the total profit actually completed in 2018-2020 is significantly higher than the target value at the beginning of the year. Look ahead to the layout of COMAC commercial development and low-altitude economic high-end civil composite material market, and open the ceiling of long-term growth in the future. In 2024Q1, the company invested 163.2 million yuan to set up a holding joint venture subsidiary (51% of the company's shares) - Shanghai Aeroengine Composite Materials Co., Ltd., which is mainly engaged in the manufacturing of components such as resin matrix composite fan blades and casings for aeroengines. In addition to COMAC and COMAC market, the company has used the core composite technology accumulated over the years to promote the application of composite materials in unmanned aerial vehicles, electric aircraft and some emerging fields, and has provided some composite products to relevant companies in the low altitude economic field, including composite structures at propeller and other parts of the company using prepreg products. Risk tip 1. The delivery process of downstream OEMs is not as expected; 2. The company's project production progress and order acquisition were not as expected.

　　 Zoomlion

　　 Q1's export performance continued to shine, and structural optimization led to rising profits

Event description The company released its first quarter report, and in 2024Q1, the company achieved revenue of 11.773 billion yuan,+12.93% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 916 million yuan,+13.06% year on year; The net profit not attributable to the parent company was 777 million yuan,+19.45% year on year. The export performance of event comments continued to shine, and the international expansion achieved remarkable results. At the industry level, in 24Q1, 3705 truck cranes were sold domestically, - 34.5% on a year-on-year basis. Affected by the downward trend of the domestic industry cycle, the company's domestic revenue in Q1 was -9.32% on a year-on-year basis, with a smaller decline than that of the industry. The company's export performance continued to shine. In 24Q1, it achieved an overseas revenue of 5.703 billion yuan,+52.85% year-on-year (including export revenue+60.95% year-on-year), accounting for 48%. Compared with 2023, it increased by 10 pct. The company's overseas business system of "end-to-end, digital, and localized" achieved remarkable results. With the gradual improvement of the company's global layout, overseas revenue is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the future. The emerging sector accelerates its development, or contributes an important increment to the company's Q1 revenue. 1) The domestic market share of Zhongda Dig has doubled over the past 23 years. The Changsha Dig Machinery Intelligent Manufacturing Demonstration Factory has been put into operation, and the product reliability, cost control ability, production efficiency and intelligence level have been continuously improved. 2) The aerial work machinery has developed rapidly, the product type spectrum has achieved full coverage of 4-72 meters, and the penetration rate of electrified products is 90%+. The company is promoting the injection of Zoomlion, a subsidiary of the high-speed machinery business segment Lucheng Technology ) href=/002813/> Lucheng Technology （002813 ）After the transaction is completed, Zoomlion is expected to fully realize high-quality development. 3) The sales scale of mining machinery in 23 years was+140% year on year. The first 100 ton national chemical electric drive mining dump truck independently developed by the company went offline and entered the high-end mining equipment market. 4) Agricultural machinery focuses on tractors and grain harvesting machinery, relying on the technology accumulation and advantageous resources of the construction machinery sector, and continuously empowers agricultural machinery. 24Q1 The company's new business segment may continue to grow at a high speed, and is expected to continue to contribute to the increase in the future. Benefit structure optimization and cost reduction have significantly improved the company's profitability. The gross profit rate of the company in 24Q1 was 28.65%,+2.26pct year-on-year,+1.77pct month on month; The net interest rate was 8.67%,+0.43 pct year-on-year and+2.54 pct month on month. On the one hand, the proportion of Q1's overseas revenue increased by 10 pct to 48%, and the overseas gross profit margin in 23 years was 7.57 pct higher than that in China. The increase in the proportion of Q1's overseas revenue with high gross profit margin led to an increase in profitability. On the other hand, the company will reduce costs and increase efficiency through supplier integration, application and replacement of new materials, new processes and new technologies, localization of parts, and improvement of self production rate of key parts, and its profitability is expected to continue to improve. In addition, the equity incentive expense of 24Q1 Company was 216 million yuan, after excluding the impact, the company's profitability was higher. The domestic industry has bottomed out and stabilized. In March, the domestic sales of excavators in China reached+9.3% year on year. CME estimates that the domestic sales in April will be basically flat, and the domestic industry is expected to bottom out and stay flat throughout the year. The company's traditional lifting machinery and concrete machinery are expected to develop steadily, and the emerging mining machinery, agricultural machinery, high-tech machinery and mining machinery are expected to continue to contribute to income growth. With the gradual improvement of overseas distribution, overseas income is expected to continue the trend of high growth. The optimization of product structure and regional structure, combined with cost reduction and efficiency improvement, is expected to continue to drive the improvement of profitability and the company's long-term competitiveness. It is estimated that from 2024 to 2025, the company will achieve net profits attributable to the parent of 4.678 billion yuan and 6.19 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 16 times and 12 times of PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating. Risk tip 1. The recovery of domestic demand is less than expected, and the performance increase of emerging sectors is less than expected; 2. Overseas market expansion was less than expected.

　　 Huaqin Technology

　　 The comparative advantage of the boom continues, and the multi-dimensional growth curve appears

Event description The company released the first quarter report of 2024, and achieved revenue of 248 million in 24Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 32.61%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 114 million, up 29.4% year on year; Net profit not attributable to the parent company was 111 million, up 28.36% year on year. Event comment: The revenue in a single quarter maintained a medium high growth rate, and the profit growth driven by the expense growth of subsidiaries was slightly lower than that of the revenue side. The company achieved revenue of 248 million yuan in 24Q1, yoy+32.61%, and the revenue growth rate exceeded 30% for five consecutive quarters from 23Q1 to 24Q1, mainly due to the continuous growth of the company's batch production and small batch trial production business, and the gradual landing of new business to contribute to revenue. On the profit side, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 114 million, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, slightly lower than the income side, mainly due to slight fluctuations in profitability. The gross profit rate of the company in the first quarter was 58.76% (yoy-0.44pcts), which remained stable; The period expense rate was 13.73% (yoy+1.24pcts), of which the management expense rate was 6.53% (yoy+1.08pcts, mainly due to the increase of subsidiary expenses and Shanghai Ruihuasheng share based payment), and the financial expense rate was 0.23% (yoy+1.22pcts, mainly due to the increase of interest expenses), driving the net interest rate to 44.09%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.74pcts. With sufficient orders in hand, the company actively prepared goods, and the expansion project accelerated to ensure order delivery and business development. The downstream demand of the company is strong and the orders in hand are sufficient. By the end of March 2024, the orders of special functional materials in hand of the parent company of the company are about 800 million. The subsidiary Shenyang Huaqin Hangfa has signed orders of about 81 million yuan accumulatively, and the orders that have not been executed are about 55 million yuan. In order to ensure the smooth completion of orders, the company actively increased the stock of raw materials. The inventory balance at the end of 24Q1 was 188 million, an increase of 50.23% over the beginning of the year, a record high. In terms of capacity, the company's new material park raised investment projects and aviation parts intelligent manufacturing projects accelerated. At the end of 24Q1, the balance of projects under construction was 599 million, an increase of 31.17% over the beginning of the year, and the balance of fixed assets was 313 million, an increase of 8.53% over the beginning of the year. The new business development of the company has successfully opened up a multi-dimensional growth curve, which is expected to create a flagship platform for special functional materials. In 2023, the company's new businesses will expand smoothly. Part of Shenyang Huaqin's production lines will start the first article verification and trial production. As of March 2024, about 81 million orders have been signed, and about 55 million orders have not been executed. The intelligent manufacturing project of aviation parts will accelerate, and the proportion of engineering investment will reach 28.88%. At the same time, the gross margin of the company's parts processing business is only -6.58%, There is broad room for improvement by reference to peer companies; Nanjing Huaqin has made business progress in high-end civil fields such as industrial noise reduction and acoustic laboratory, and actively carried out follow-up research on aviation and underwater vehicles; Ruihuasheng New Materials was set up and actively carried out the preliminary construction of the project. At present, the newly established subsidiaries are still in the loss stage due to large initial investment. In the future, with business expansion and scale effect appearing, they are expected to gradually achieve profitability. Core recommendation logic, profit forecast and valuation: the company is the leader of a few domestic stealth materials covering the whole temperature domain. Based on the current situation, the company has outstanding technological leadership, outstanding industrialization capability, continuous production expansion, guaranteed delivery, and is expected to enjoy the boom dividend of Airfat stealth materials track alone; Looking into the future, the company is based on material technology, vertically extends the layout of Aviva parts processing, deeply binds downstream customers, horizontally expands the business of protection, camouflage and acoustic materials, creates a flagship platform for special materials, and opens the company's long-term growth space. It is estimated that the company's performance in 24-26 years will be 521/671/874 million, yoy+56%/29%/30% respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current market value will be 37, 29 and 22 times respectively. It is not ruled out that the future downstream model batch production will exceed the expectation and the profit forecast will be raised. Risk tip 1. The risk of income fluctuation caused by the order release rhythm; 2. The risk that the product price reduction will lead to a decline in profitability.

　　 SDIC Power

　　 Continuous repair of hot and hot double wing operation, steady performance highlights investment value

Event description The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 first quarter report: in 2023, the company realized an operating revenue of 56.712 billion yuan, an increase of 12.32% year on year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.705 billion yuan, up 64.31% year on year. In the first quarter of 2024, the company will achieve an operating revenue of 14.108 billion yuan, up 6.43% year on year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.035 billion yuan, up 26.14% year on year. Event comment The main business operation was fully restored, and the annual performance was excellent. Although the incoming water will continue to be dry in 2023, the company's hydropower generation capacity will be 94.206 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 5.03%, but the thermal power generation capacity will be 58.06 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 14.93%, and the growth rate of wind power and photovoltaic power generation will also reach 31.75% and 60.36% respectively. Under the strong performance of thermal power and new energy power, the company's total power generation was 161.973 billion kWh, up 3.35% year on year. In terms of electricity price, due to the YoY increase of Yalong River outgoing electricity price and the increase in the proportion of electricity of high priced units such as Lianghekou and Yangfanggou Power Station, the company's hydropower grid price is 0.3 yuan/kWh, with a YoY increase of 10.29%. As some units participate in the provincial spot price in 2022, the thermal power price decreases by 1.46% YoY. On the whole, the electricity quantity and electricity price maintained a strong performance. The annual revenue reached 56.712 billion yuan, an increase of 12.32% year on year. Due to the steady decline of coal price and the year-on-year increase of hydropower price, the gross profit margin of the company reached 36.08%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.04pct. At the same time, the company continued to promote the replacement of high interest debt, and financial expenses decreased by 14.59% year on year. In addition, thanks to the repair of the operation of the joint-stock company, the investment income reached 697 million yuan, up 155.33% year on year. However, as the impairment amount of overseas Singapore assets reached 200 million yuan, the company's credit and asset impairment amount reached 398 million yuan, which to some extent slowed down the performance. On the whole, driven by the continuous repair of the main power business, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.705 billion yuan, up 64.31% year on year, of which the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company contributed by Yalong River hydropower reached 4.5 billion yuan, up 17.49% year on year. The company plans to pay a dividend of 0.4948 yuan per share (tax included), accounting for about 55% of the net profit attributable to the parent company. The dividend will remain stable. Thermal power business continued to repair, with excellent performance in the first quarter. In the first quarter of 2024, the water from Sichuan and Yunnan will continue to be dry, and the hydropower generation capacity of the company will be 21.434 billion kWh, down 8.31% year on year; Thermal power benefited from the improved demand in the region and the commissioning of new units, generating 15.161 billion kWh, up 17.7% year on year; Driven by the rapid growth of installed capacity, the growth rate of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is 15.95% and 135.15% respectively. In terms of electricity price, the company's average on grid electricity price for hydropower in the first quarter was 0.318 yuan/kWh, up 4.26% year on year; The average on grid price of thermal power is 0.463 yuan/kWh, down 1.91% year on year. Under the strong performance of thermal power and hydropower electricity prices, the company's total power generation was 39.542 billion kWh, up 3.27% year on year; The on grid electricity price was 0.387 yuan/kWh, up 3.75% year on year, so the company's revenue in the first quarter reached 14.108 billion yuan, up 6.43% year on year. In terms of cost, the supply and demand situation of coal in the first quarter was loose, and the coal price continued to decline. The average market price of Q5500 steam coal in Qinhuangdao Port in the first quarter was 901.74 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%. The continuous decline of coal price will significantly release the pressure on the cost side of thermal power. The gross profit rate of the company in the first quarter was 40.28%, up 2.78 pct year on year. At the same time, the company's three expenses continued to fall back, and the investment income reached 195 million yuan driven by the restoration of the operating environment of the joint-stock company, with a year-on-year growth of 81.24%. On the whole, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter reached 2.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.14%. Under the background of dry water, the performance was stable. Investment suggestion: according to the latest financial data, we estimate that the corresponding EPS of the company from 2024 to 2026 will be 1.06 yuan, 1.14 yuan and 1.24 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 14.34 times, 13.37 times and 12.33 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating. Risk tip 1. The progress and benefits of the new project are not as good as expected; 2. Risk that wind conditions and light resources are not as good as expected.

　　 Yangtze Power

　　 The dividend rate is stable and consistent with the commitment, and the inflow fluctuation of multi factor hedging

Event description The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 first quarter report: in 2023, the company realized an operating revenue of 78.112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.43%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.239 billion yuan, up 14.81% year on year. In the first quarter of 2024, the company will achieve an operating revenue of 15.641 billion yuan, up 1.58% year on year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.967 billion yuan, up 9.80% year on year. Event comment: electricity continued to be repaired, and the annual performance achieved steady growth. In 2023, the total inflow of Wudongde Reservoir in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River will be about 102.908 billion cubic meters, 5.46% lower than the same period last year; The total inflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir is about 342.846 billion cubic meters, 0.71% higher than that of the same period last year. Although the incoming water is not good, the Baihetan Hydropower Station was not fully completed and put into operation in the same period last year, so the company's total power generation in 2023 will be about 276.263 billion kWh, an increase of 5.34% over the same period last year. The company's market electricity accounted for 37.76%, up 3.8 percentage points year on year. As the electricity price of Baihetan Power Station is higher than that of other power stations of the company, the company will achieve an annual operating income of 78.112 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 13.43%, which is better than the growth of electricity. The gross profit margin of the company is 57.83%, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7 pct. In addition, driven by the steady operation of the joint-stock company, the company's investment income reached 4.75 billion yuan, up 3.26% year on year. In terms of profit reduction factors, due to the company's acquisition of Wubai Power Station, a large amount of debt was raised, so the company's financial expenses reached 12.556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.05%, and the R&D expenses also reached 789 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 779.95%, limiting the growth of performance to some extent. On the whole, the repair of the main business is still strong, with the annual performance reaching 27.239 billion yuan, up 14.81% year on year. The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 8.20 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares, with a dividend ratio of 73.66% and a stable dividend level. The water supply is too dry to limit the hydropower output, and the performance of cost reduction and income increase is better than expected. In the first quarter of 2024, the total inflow of Wudongde Reservoir in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is about 14.849 billion cubic meters, 7.71% lower than the same period of the previous year; The total inflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir is about 49.767 billion cubic meters, 4.14% lower than the same period last year. Affected by dry water, the total power generation of the six cascade power stations within the company is about 52.747 billion kWh, a decrease of 5.13% over the same period of the previous year. Although the electricity performance is under pressure, or because the electricity price mechanism of some power stations belonging to the company was clarified last year, the electricity price may be increased this year under the influence of the confirmed time rhythm. At the same time, the electricity price of the company's electricity in Sichuan and Yunnan during the dry season is expected to increase with the year-on-year increase of the electricity price in the two provinces during the dry season, thanks to the company's operating revenue of 15.641 billion yuan in the first quarter, 1.58% year-on-year growth. In terms of cost, as a large number of fixed assets of Wubai Power Station have been transferred to fixed assets since the beginning of last year, the company's operating cost in the first quarter reached 8.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.31%, resulting in the company's gross profit of 7.529 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.20%. However, the company continued to optimize the debt structure. The financial expenses in the first quarter were 2.851 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.40%. Driven by the significant repair of the operating performance of the joint-stock companies, the investment income in the first quarter reached 900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.73%. Driven by increased cost reduction and substantial growth of investment income, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.967 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 9.80% year on year. Under the background of water pressure, steady performance demonstrated the company's excellent investment value. Investment suggestion: according to the latest financial data, we adjust the company's profit forecast. We estimate that the corresponding EPS of the company in 2024-2026 will be 1.34 yuan, 1.37 yuan and 1.46 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 19.08 times, 18.57 times and 17.45 times respectively, maintaining the company's "buy" rating. Risk warning 1. Electricity price fluctuation risk; 2. Risk of unexpected water inflow.

　　 New natural gas

　　 Increase the volume, control the cost and stabilize the price, and build the whole natural gas industry chain in the future

　　 Event description

The company releases the 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, the company will achieve a total operating revenue of 3.517 billion yuan, up 2.94% year on year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.048 billion yuan, up 13.45% year on year. In the first quarter of 2024, the total operating revenue is 1.131 billion yuan, up 11.11% year on year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 332 million yuan, up 126.85% year on year.

　　 Event comments

The effect of increasing volume and controlling cost is significant, and the profitability remains stable against the background of global gas price decline. With a complete technical system, Yamei Energy has made continuous efforts to increase production and reduce costs. In 2023, the average cost of CBM will be 0.85 yuan/m3, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. With the rapid production of MABI, the cost will continue to decline. In terms of output, the company's total output will be 1.704 billion m3 in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 16.16%. Among them, 1132 million cubic meters were produced in Panzhuang, a year-on-year decrease of 4.27%, and 572 million cubic meters were produced in Mabi, a year-on-year increase of 101%. In November last year, the daily output exceeded 2 million cubic meters and continued to rise. Looking forward to the future, the production of Mobil will climb and Zijinshan will be put into production soon, and the company's output will continue to increase. In terms of price, the average price of LNG in Northeast Asia will decrease by 52.91% year on year in 2023, but the company's CBM production is mainly pipeline gas sales, which is less affected by market price fluctuations. The annual average sales price is 2.09 yuan/m3, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%. Among them, the price of Panzhuang is 2.07 yuan/m3, a year-on-year decrease of 10.39%; The price of MABI was 2.13 yuan/m3, up 3.90% year on year. With the access of Mabi to the west first line and the recovery of Tongyu pipeline in the second half of 2013, the price still has room for improvement. Even if the global gas price declines, the company's CBM production business profit may have strong support.

After the opening of favorable price in Xinjiang, the profitability of urban gas business is expected to improve significantly. In 2023, the price of pipeline gas of PetroChina will rise, and the procurement cost of the company's Xinjiang urban gas business will rise, leading to a decrease of 7.9 and 11.73 pct in gross profit margin in 24Q1 compared with the same period, and a loss of 28 million yuan in net investment income. On April 23, Urumqi held a hearing on rationalizing the natural gas price mechanism, which included: verifying the gas distribution price of classified users; Rationalize the sales price of classified users; Establish and improve the ladder price system for residential gas consumption; Establish upstream and downstream linkage mechanism of gas source purchase and sales price; At the same time, the price of non residential central heating will be adjusted. In the first stage (2024), the sales price of gas for central heating will be adjusted by 0.33 yuan/m3 in the same direction on the basis of 1.37 yuan/m3, and the sales price of gas for industrial and commercial use will increase by 0.25 yuan/m3 compared with the current price. In addition, we will establish and improve the ladder price system for residential gas consumption. In order to meet different gas demand, the stepped gas consumption of residents is set to the first, second and third levels, and the price is increased progressively in excess. After this favorable price landing, the company's urban gas business profit is expected to improve significantly.

Through the strategy of "strengthening, extending and supplementing the chain", it is expected to build and consolidate the "whole industry chain of natural gas". In 2023, in addition to completing the privatization of Asian American energy, the cross-border merger and acquisition of Asia Pacific Petroleum Co., Ltd. to obtain the controlling right, and the joint development of Zijin Mountain Block, the two unconventional natural gas resources of deep coalbed methane and tight sandstone gas will be obtained at one fell swoop; Completed the bankruptcy reorganization of Benevolence, built the Henan market with LNG plant as the bridgehead and radiated to the surrounding areas; At the same time, Xinjiang Mingxin Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Co., Ltd. and Henan Xintai Clean Energy Technology Co., Ltd. were established with Karamay Urban Investment to carry out investment and development of oil and gas energy based on Xinjiang and the central region, as well as the whole country and even Central Asia. Through the strategy of "strengthening the chain, extending the chain and supplementing the chain", we have basically realized the business pattern of the whole industrial chain integration of "resources, pipelines and customers".

Without considering future changes in equity, it is estimated that the company's EPS from 2024 to 2026 will be 4.04 yuan, 5.22 yuan and 6.19 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on April 26, 2024 will be 8.37X, 6.48X and 5.47X respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

　　 Risk warning

1. Energy prices fell sharply;

2. The risk that the project product sharing contract cannot be renewed upon expiration.

　　 COOEC

　　 Full workload, sufficient orders, industry recovery, leading marine engineering companies continue to benefit

　　 Event description

The company releases the first quarter report of 2024. In the first quarter of 2024, the company realized a total operating revenue of 5.672 billion yuan, down 11.33% year on year; Net profit attributable to the parent company was 475 million yuan, up 5.96% year on year; Non net profit deducted was 400 million yuan, up 23.35% year on year.

　　 Event comments

In 2023, the workload will break through a new high and steadily advance in 2024Q1. In 2023, 472000 tons of steel products will be processed, an increase of 25% year on year, hitting a new record; 24800 ship days were invested, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. In the first quarter of 2024, the company will actively promote the construction of oil and gas projects at home and abroad. A total of 63 projects above designated size will be operated, of which 4 will be completed and delivered. Onshore construction of 19 jackets and 7 modules, offshore installation of 9 jackets and 6 modules, 68.9 km subsea pipeline and 39 km subsea cable laying have been completed. The construction business completed 136000 tons of steel processing, up 13% over the same period of the previous year; The investment in installation and other offshore operations is 4800 ship days. Due to different workload distribution, the total investment in ship days in the reporting period is 23% lower than that in the same period. However, the number of ship days for installation of large ship structures is 336% higher than that in the same period last year, and the number of ship days for self owned ships is 438 days higher than that in the same period last year.

Actively promote market development, and provide strong support for future workload with sufficient orders in hand. In 2023, the company will achieve a market contracting volume of 33.986 billion yuan, up 32.55% year on year. The overseas market contracted 14.176 billion yuan, an increase of 233% year on year, creating a new record for both companies; Second, we won the bid for a number of key overseas general contracting projects, such as Qatar ISND5-2, to achieve an effective breakthrough from international engineering subcontractors to general contractors, and effectively ensure the implementation of strategic objectives through market development. In the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved a contracted amount of 6.517 billion yuan, an increase of 11% over the same period last year, including 6.11 billion yuan domestically and 407 million yuan overseas. By the end of the first quarter, the orders in hand were about 40.5 billion yuan, providing strong support for future workload.

The potential of offshore oil and gas resources is huge, and CNOOC is expected to fully benefit from increasing reserves and production and capital expenditure. In terms of global oil and gas exploration rate, ultra deep water is far lower than land. The exploration rates of land oil and natural gas are 36.72% and 47.01%, respectively. The exploration rates of ultra deep water oil and natural gas are only 7.69% and 7.55%. The potential of offshore oil and gas resources is huge, and ultra deep water is the future trend. For China, the overall quality of proved oil and gas reserves is worse, and the overall quality of reserves in the sea area is better. In the future, offshore, deepwater and unconventional oil and gas will be important fields and directions of oil and gas exploration and development in terms of both quality and reserves. 2024 CNOOC （600938 ）The total capital expenditure budget is 1250-135 billion yuan, which is still a certain increase compared with the high base in 2023, and will ensure the prosperity of the offshore oil service industry in a certain period of time. In the future, as China continues to increase the exploration and development of offshore oil fields, it will continue to benefit the corresponding supporting oil and gas services and equipment suppliers, COOEC ) href=/600583/> COOEC （600583 ）Will benefit fully.

Announcing the shareholder return plan and improving the dividend will help increase the competitiveness of the company. In the context of state-owned enterprise reform, the company may pay more attention to asset quality and return on assets in the future, steadily improve profitability, and pay more attention to the improvement of free cash flow, and gradually increase the amount of cash dividends. In 2023, the dividend rate will exceed 40%, and the total dividend will reach a new historical high in 2016. The Shareholders' Return Plan for the Next Three Years (2024-2026) is released this time. Except for special circumstances, the company will distribute dividends in cash, with the dividend ratio not less than 30%, on the premise that the company's cash can meet the company's sustainable operation and long-term development.

Without considering future changes in equity, it is estimated that the company's EPS from 2024 to 2026 will be 0.49 yuan, 0.61 yuan and 0.78 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on April 30, 2024 will be 13.05X, 10.43X and 8.13X respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

　　 Risk warning

1. The international oil price fell sharply;

2. Risks brought by international market operation.

　　 Jerry Shares

　　 Net interest rate rebounded and Q1 performance increased by 6.84% year on year

　　 Event description

The company releases the first quarter report of 2024. In the first quarter of 2024, the company realized a total operating revenue of 2.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.52%; Net profit attributable to the parent company was 375 million yuan, up 6.84% year on year; Non net profit deducted was 360 million yuan, up 4.89% year on year.

　　 Event comments

During the period, the expense rate was well controlled, and the net interest rate rose in 2024Q1. In 2024, Q1 gross profit rate will be 35.72%, down 0.36 pct year on year, but the net profit rate will finally be 17.99%, up 2.08 pct year on year, mainly due to the good control of the period expense rate. In Q1 2024, the expense rate will be 13.50%, down 1.96 pct year on year. The sales expense rate was 5.55%, down 0.44pct year on year; The management expense rate was 5.06%, up 0.57 pct year on year; R&D expense rate was 3.73%, up 1.02 pct year on year; The financial expense rate was -0.84%, down 3.11 pct year on year. The significant decrease in the financial expense rate is mainly due to the high exchange loss of foreign currency monetary items in the same period of 2023. During the period, the expenses were well controlled and the final performance increased by 6.84% year on year.

The reserve increase and production increase during the 14th Five Year Plan will accelerate, and the demand for unconventional oil and gas exploitation will continue to increase. As the leader of fracturing equipment, the company will fully benefit. According to the 14th Five Year Plan for Modern Energy System, "China will increase its domestic oil and gas exploration and development efforts, adhere to the principle of developing both normal and non conventional resources and paying equal attention to land and sea, actively expand the exploration and development of unconventional resources, and accelerate the development of shale oil, shale gas, and coal-bed methane." By 2030, China's crude oil production is expected to maintain 200 million tons, and natural gas production will steadily increase, The relevant oilfield service market will also continue to grow. Looking forward to the future, with the increase of reserves and production and the continuous growth of oil and gas capital expenditure, the increase of unconventional oil and gas production will make the fracturing equipment industry a blue ocean market, as the leader of domestic fracturing equipment, Jerry Shares ) href=/002353/> Jerry Shares （002353 ）Will benefit fully.

Major breakthroughs have been made in domestic and international development, and there are sufficient orders in hand. The company won the bid for the centralized procurement project of all fracturing equipment with volume of PetroChina in 2023, maintaining the record of winning the bidding project of CNPC electric drive fracturing, and maintaining a leading position in the domestic fracturing market; In overseas market, the company successfully realized the sales and delivery of the second 35MW gas turbine generator set in North America; The successful sale of China's electric drive fracturing equipment to the North American market for the first time is another milestone after the sales of turbine fracturing and gas turbine generator sets in the United States; The new generation of new energy equipment, such as electric drive fracturing equipment, has become an important support for the company's high-end oil and gas equipment sector. From the perspective of order volume, in 2023, the company added 13.956 billion yuan of new orders, a year-on-year increase of 9.65%. Sufficient orders in hand will play a positive role in supporting future business performance.

The repurchase of shares and the new round of employee stock ownership plan were steadily promoted, demonstrating the company's full confidence. In January 2024, the Company reviewed and passed the Proposal on Share Repurchase Plan for 2024. The total amount of the repurchase funds is not less than 150 million yuan and not more than 250 million yuan, and the repurchase price is not more than 40 yuan/share. In April 2024, the company released the "Business Partner Phase IV Employee Stock Ownership Plan", and the total number of employees to be encouraged is not more than 35, and the total amount of funds is not more than 45 million yuan. According to the calculation of the purchase price of 30.29 yuan/share in the employee stock ownership plan, the total number of incentive shares is expected to be not more than 1485600 shares, and the share source is the shares repurchased by the company in the early stage, accounting for 0.15% of the company's total share capital. Share repurchase and employee stock ownership demonstrate the company's sufficient confidence.

Without considering future changes in equity, it is estimated that the company's EPS from 2024 to 2026 will be 2.96 yuan, 3.61 yuan and 4.32 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on April 26, 2024 will be 10.63X, 8.71X and 7.28X respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

　　 Risk warning

1. The international oil price fell sharply;

2. Part of the company's industrial transformation failed.