In the past, the trend of globalization of asset allocation has continued to drive the popularity of QDII (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor) funds from the United States to Japan and then to India... However, risks have also gathered in hot spots, and global funds have begun to actively seek more cost-effective value "depressions". Based on this, The performance ranking of QDII funds has also been quietly reversed. Some QDII funds that can hold a large proportion of U.S. stocks within the scope of the fund contract continue to increase and allocate Chinese assets. Behind the changes, on the one hand, the domestic asset valuation adjustment is fully attractive, and on the other hand, it also shows the confidence and expectation of global investors in Chinese assets.
At present, overseas markets such as the U.S. and Japanese stocks have accumulated a large increase, showing obvious overbought in the short and medium term, which provides the possibility for subsequent short selling. At the same time, exchange rate risk, geopolitical risk, various transaction settlement risks and market liquidity risk are also affecting the investment experience, and the performance of related products has no choice but to give way. As of May 15, all QDII funds with annual returns of more than 20% were Hong Kong themed, while the same period last year was dominated by the U.S. stock theme. In addition, the recent fluctuations in the yen exchange rate also led to the withdrawal of the actual returns of related QDII funds.
Wind data shows that, as of May 15, more than 300 QDIIs have issued fund premium risk warning announcements in the year. Especially since May, the relevant announcements have reached the level of "daily change". In addition to the theme of bulk commodities, most products are concentrated in the United States, Japan and other stock markets, accounting for nearly 70%.
However, as China's economy continues to recover, the foundation for high-quality development of the capital market is consolidated, the asset valuation adjustment is fully cost-effective, and the investment environment continues to optimize and other positive factors are verified and strengthened, it has become an indisputable fact that China's equity market has more opportunities than challenges. The return of a large amount of capital to domestic assets will form a joint force with the stock capital, further promoting the return of the value of A-shares and Hong Kong shares.
This, to some extent, explains the consideration that QDII fund managers have been singing about more domestic assets and choosing to allocate more Hong Kong shares. According to the statistics of Guojin Securities Research Institute, in the first quarter, the number of Hong Kong equity theme funds (including Hong Kong equity QDII funds and Shanghai Hong Kong Shenzhen funds) in which the market value of publicly offered investment in Hong Kong shares accounted for more than 30% of the fund's net asset value reached 265, an increase of 12 from the previous quarter, with a total scale of 295.1 billion yuan. Among them, the proportion of Hong Kong stock positions of "Hong Kong Stock Connect High Hong Kong Stock" and "Hong Kong Stock Connect AH Balance" funds reached a new high in recent three years, reaching 81% and 39% respectively; The position of Hong Kong stocks in the category of "Hong Kong stocks QDII high Hong Kong stocks" also rose to 76%. In addition, there are some QDII funds within the scope of the fund contract that can hold a large proportion of U.S. stocks. By the end of the first quarter, the position of Hong Kong stocks had reached more than 80%, while the position of U.S. stocks had dropped to about 4%. Many top public fund managers said frankly that the time and space for adjustment of the domestic stock market has been long enough and deep enough, and the valuation is at a relatively low historical level. Overseas liquidity is expected to be improved in the second half of 2024, and there are still many high-quality domestic assets to be tapped. While focusing on increasing positions in the medium and short term strategy, we will also pay attention to the rhythm in tactics.
Nevertheless, the original purpose of QDII fund products is to provide domestic investors with more diversified investment tools. In the face of the current market situation, public funds should comprehensively strengthen their professional ability and be brave to be value discoverers in the capital market; Enhance the international vision and overall concept, better grasp the development law and underlying logic of the capital market, improve the level of strategic decision-making and professional service ability, provide comprehensive solutions based on long-term interests and short-term needs of investors, and effectively improve the sense of gain of fund investors.
