At present, the power source of world economic growth is undergoing fundamental changes. For decades after World War II, the locomotive driving world economic growth was the United States. However, since 2008, China has become the locomotive of world economic growth. From 2008 to 2018, China's economy contributed 30.6% of world economic growth annually, making it the largest contributor to world economic growth. At present and for a long time to come, China will be the "anchor of stability" of the world economy.
China will extend the "four cycles"
The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward a grand blueprint for China to achieve by the middle of the 21st century. We will achieve socialist modernization by 2035 and build a strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful socialist modernization country by 2050. The so-called power should not only emphasize its own characteristics, but also be a power in international comparison and horizontal comparison. Looking ahead, China's economy will extend the "four cycles".
It will continue to extend the period of strategic opportunities. In 2002, the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that China will be in an important strategic opportunity period in the next 20 years from now. By 2020, China's strategic opportunity period has not ended, and a new strategic opportunity period is beginning. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the 2018 Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that China's development is still in and will be in an important strategic opportunity period for a long time. Peace and development are still the themes of the times. The trend of economic globalization has not been reversed. A new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial revolution will produce explosive forces. International cooperation is urgently needed to solve world problems. The external environment for China's development has not fundamentally changed. China has become an important force for world peace and development and is playing an increasingly important role in global governance. The "Belt and Road" initiative proposed by China has been responded by the international community and has become a global public product serving the world economic development. In just six years, China signed nearly 200 cooperation documents with more than 100 countries and dozens of international organizations to jointly build the "Belt and Road", forming a pattern of connectivity and joint development. The coordinated development strategy of Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area, Xiong'an New Area and a series of new regional development layouts have increased the resilience and swing space of China's economic development.
It will continue to extend the economic development cycle. The development cycle of China's high-speed and medium high-speed economic growth has lasted for 40 years, with an average growth rate of 9.4% in the past 40 years. It has maintained a growth rate of about 6.5% in the past three years, but every 1 percentage point increase is equivalent to 1.5 percentage points five years ago and 2 percentage points 10 years ago. According to the goal of China's GDP reaching 13.6 trillion US dollars in 2018, for every 1 percentage point of China's economic growth, the absolute amount is 136 billion US dollars, and the absolute amount of 6.6% growth is 1.4 trillion US dollars, which is about equal to the total economic volume of a country of the size of Russia and Australia. In 2019, China's economic growth is expected to be 6% to 6.5%. As long as 6% is achieved in 2020, the goal of quadrupling per capita GDP at the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China can be achieved. It is predicted that in the next ten years, the cycle of China's economic development will be prolonged. If there is a disruptive industrial revolution or technological revolution, China's innovation drive will achieve breakthrough progress, and make up for the shortcomings of common technologies, basic technologies and advanced technologies that currently lag behind the United States, the European Union and other countries and regions, China's economic growth will not only develop faster, And it will achieve higher quality development. China's economic development cycle will be prolonged, but also because reform and opening up have reshaped the economic micro main body. A number of internationally competitive enterprises have emerged in state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, and have entered the ranks of world-class enterprises. Chinese enterprises are full of vitality, power and competitiveness, which is an important foundation for China's long-term economic growth. The local government is also a great help and power for China's economic development.
Will continue to extend the manufacturing boom cycle. According to 39 industrial categories, 191 medium categories and 225 sub categories classified by the United Nations, China is a country with all categories. The developed countries and regions in the world, including the United States, Japan and Europe, do not have complete industrial chains. China's manufacturing industry has reached 30% of the global manufacturing output value in 2018, and is steadily moving towards the middle and high end. If we can say that in the past period of time, there have been deviations in some places in the adjustment of industrial structure. In the three industrial structure adjustments, we have continuously reduced the proportion of manufacturing industry and increased the proportion of service industry, and taken this as the goal of industrial transformation and upgrading, blindly pursuing the proportion of service industry. This time, the Sino US trade friction has taught us a truth: trade friction is an appearance, and the development level of manufacturing industry is the core of competition. The manufacturing industry, as the foundation, key and important tool of a powerful country, has received unprecedented attention. The development of the real economy will receive more and more support. China's huge production capacity gradually formed will become an advantage in the new round of global competition, greatly prolonging the prosperity period of China's manufacturing industry. In 2018, the growth rate of China's high-end manufacturing industry reached 19%, while that of traditional industries was less than 3%. China's strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries also developed more rapidly.
Will continue to extend the life cycle of consumers. The extension of life expectancy of Chinese consumers will bring new impetus for consumption to drive China's economic growth. In 2018, the average life expectancy of Chinese people reached 76.4 years old, and Beijing and Shanghai exceeded 80 years old. According to China's Health 2030 Plan, China's average life expectancy will reach 77 years by 2020 and 79 years by 2030. The main contradiction in Chinese society has transformed into the contradiction between the people's growing need for a better life and unbalanced and inadequate development, and the demand for a better life is the demand of the whole life cycle of people. The consumption demand of consumers in the whole life cycle will become the basic motivation to drive China to generate market dividends. Health consumption, medical consumption, sports consumption, pension consumption, leisure tourism consumption, cultural consumption, fashion consumption, beauty consumption, online consumption, etc. These meet the potential consumption demand beyond the basic consumption demand of food, clothing, housing, It will become a new growth point for China to maintain the strongest market in the world. The annual sales volume of China's catering industry has exceeded 4 trillion yuan, and eating out has become the main way of life; China's tourism reached 5 billion person times in 2017 and more than 5.5 billion person times in 2018; China's automobile sales and production reached 30 million, ranking first in the world for many years. The extension of the life cycle of the Chinese people, the improvement of their purchasing power and their living standards will make consumption the main driving force for China's economic growth, and the Chinese market dividend will become the endurance and confidence for China's sustained economic development, attracting global investment and resource allocation.
China will achieve "four 100%"
With the accumulation of quantity, a new leap will take place at a certain point. In the visible future, China will achieve "four 100%".
100% of the population will be lifted out of poverty. In 1978, the incidence of poverty in China's rural areas reached 97.5%, and 740 million people were lifted out of poverty after 40 years of reform and opening up. According to the current poverty standards, from 2013 to 2018, China lifted 16.5 million, 12.32 million, 14.42 million, 12.4 million, 12.89 million and 13.86 million people out of poverty respectively. In 2019, there are still 6 million people living in poverty, and they will be completely out of poverty. A country with a population of nearly 1.4 billion has achieved 100% poverty alleviation, which is truly unprecedented in history and unique in all countries today. This is a great creation in the history of human development in the world, a major contribution made by China to world peace and development, and the reason why China is recognized and appreciated by more and more countries and people. China's development path and achievements contrast with the fact that more than 800 million people in the world are still in absolute poverty and hunger, and even with tens of millions of poor people in some developed countries.
100% social security coverage will be achieved. China has established a relatively complete social security framework and will achieve 100% full coverage of social security. As one of the most basic economic systems in modern countries, China has enacted insurance, relief, subsidies and other systems through legislation to ensure the basic survival and living needs of all members of society, especially the special needs of citizens in old-age care, disease, unemployment, childbirth, death, disaster and life difficulties. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China requires that a multi-level social security system covering the whole people, coordinating urban and rural areas, with clear rights and responsibilities, appropriate guarantees and sustainability be built in an all-round way. At present, China has established pension insurance, medical insurance, unemployment insurance, work-related injury insurance and maternity insurance systems, and is improving the social welfare system, social relief system and social preferential treatment system. According to the deployment of the CPC Central Committee, "the social security system covering urban and rural residents will be basically established" by 2020, which means that the endowment insurance for 255 million elderly people and medical insurance for 1.39 billion people will achieve 100% full coverage.
It will achieve 100% full coverage of 5G network. China will focus on the overall, basic and strategic major projects of information infrastructure network, and take the lead in achieving 100% 5G coverage. China will accelerate the construction of information infrastructure in the digital economy era, and realize the ontology, standardization and integration of data through the next generation of information technology, such as the Internet, the Internet of Things, big data, cloud services, AI technology, etc. China's high-energy computing, smart city, world e-commerce trade platform, mobile payment, etc. are in the forefront of the world. With the advent of the era of interconnection, perception, visualization and intelligence of all things, new changes will appear in the manufacturing industry, service industry, trade industry, and even people's life and living style.
It will gradually realize 100% control of mountains, rivers and waters of the motherland. China has launched a large-scale land greening campaign, accelerated the implementation of major ecological protection and restoration projects, promoted the construction of forest cities, forest city clusters, forest parks, national wetlands, and national ecological reserves, implemented the system of river leader and lake leader, controlled air pollution, and strengthened the ecological governance of the motherland. By 2020, China's forest coverage will reach 23.04%, and 26% by 2035, reaching the world average in the middle of the 21st century. In February 2019, the journal Nature Sustainability published an article. A 17 year follow-up study showed that since 2000, China and India have contributed about 1/3 of the global green growth area. China's vegetation area only accounts for 6% of the global green growth area, but it has contributed 25% of the global green growth area. China's barren mountains are becoming "green waters and green mountains", and will further become "golden mountains and silver mountains". A beautiful China is forming and writing a more beautiful chapter.
(Author Chen Wenling is chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center)
