In the middle of January, some prudent investors began to expect the "Spring Festival effect" of the bank financing market.
From the experience of previous years, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, there will often be a wave of "Spring Festival market" in the bank financial product market. However, since the beginning of 2016, based on relatively loose capital and liquidity, the yield of wealth management products has not been satisfactory, and the yield still shows a downward trend. People in the banking industry said that monetary policy could still be further relaxed in the future, and the yield of wealth management products was not optimistic in 2016, and the downward trend was still a probability event. At present, investors should buy relevant products in time to lock in relatively high returns.
Looking back at the bank wealth management market in 2015, the expected yield of wealth management products has been in a state of "continuous decline". Only in December of the end of the year, the yield of RMB non structural wealth management products stabilized and rebounded slightly.
"However, due to the overall easing throughout the year, it is difficult for the bank's financial products to show a sharp jump." Yan Zijie said.
It is worth noting that a media report recently said that the regulators hoped that commercial banks would reduce the overall yield of wealth management products through window guidance. However, from the current market situation, the yield of bank financial products has been in the downward channel.
A new research report released by Shenwan Hongyuan also pointed out that with the decline of the return on innovation, the decline of the return on fixed income products caused by the stock market callback, and the scarcity of non-standard and other relatively high-yield assets, the return on financial products will decline significantly in 2016. As for the scale of bank financing, the report is expected to increase significantly. "Under the condition that the current yield of wealth management products is higher than the deposit interest rate in the same period, and the risk preference of the whole people is declining, wealth management is still an important option for many residents to deposit. According to the growth trend of wealth management products, it is conservatively estimated that the scale of wealth management will reach about 28 trillion by the end of 2016."
As for the yield level of the current market, the statistics of Oriental Wealth Choice Information show that the yield rate of the products with the largest circulation in the current market with a period of 1-3 months, for example, is about 4.3%.
On the eve of the Spring Festival, it is unlikely that the expected yield of financial products will rise significantly. "Even if there are holiday wealth management products, the expected yield is slightly higher, but most of them are short-term products, plus the retention of the raising period and the final maturity date of funds, it is not cost-effective." A bank wealth manager told reporters.
Yan Zijie also predicted that the average expected return rate in 2016 might fall to 3.5% - 4%. He suggested that the period before the Spring Festival, especially before the introduction of the central bank's further easing policy, would be a good time for people who have a demand for investment in bank financial products. They could choose some joint-stock banks and large urban commercial banks' medium - and long-term products to lock in high yields.
(Source: Shanghai Securities Jinpingping)