Chen Zhiwen, reporter of Shenzhen Business Daily
After a disastrous fall since the beginning of the new year, yesterday's A-share market finally ushered in a retaliatory rebound. Affected by the sharp drop in the external market, the stock index opened lower again in the morning yesterday, and the Shanghai Index almost fell below the low point of 2850 in the early days. At this sensitive location, the securities companies struggled to protect the market. The GEM was the first to turn red in the session, and then the decline of the Shanghai Index narrowed around 2900 points. In the afternoon, the enthusiasm of the two markets was fully activated, and theme plates were everywhere, driving some blue chip plates to become stronger. Near the end of the session, the Shanghai Index recovered 3000 points. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index had closed at 3007.65, up 1.97%, with a turnover of 218 billion yuan; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 3.67% to 10344.94, with a turnover of 334.2 billion yuan. The GEM reported 2175.01 points, up 5.59%.
On the market side, 2452 individual stocks in the two cities rose, 95 fell, 129 non ST stocks rose and 8 fell. The industry sectors of the two cities were all in the red, the aviation sector soared by 7%, the Internet and software services soared by more than 6%, and the semiconductor, industrial machinery and other sectors were among the top performers. In terms of concept, gene sequencing, network security, satellite navigation, etc. rose by more than 7%, and security, intelligent wear, mobile games, smart cities, etc. were among the top gainers. Bank and oil and gas sectors gained relatively weakly.
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Yesterday, the news surface picked up obviously. First, the management continued to maintain stability and calm market confidence. The CSRC once again shouted that March 1 is not the starting point of the registration system reform. The registration system is a gradual process, and the pace and price of new share issuance will not be relaxed all at once, which will not cause large-scale expansion of new shares. Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges issued a document: continue to pay attention to and strictly monitor the reduction of major shareholders. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has taken special measures to strengthen supervision. Since the release of the new regulations on shareholding reduction, the major shareholders of listed companies have not yet shown obvious signs of reducing their shares through block trading. According to the Wall Street Journal, at least 75 A-share companies announced that their major shareholders would continue to hold shares in the past week and a half. According to a person close to the Chinese regulator, the regulator turned to a secret and informal method to rescue the market, including urging major shareholders not to reduce their holdings and entering the market through government related funds.
Second, the central bank released liquidity to the market. The central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase of 160 billion yuan yesterday, and the interest rate remained unchanged at 2.25%. So far, this week, the public market realized a net investment of 40 billion yuan, continuing the pattern of net investment last week; With the net outflow of hedging currency and the shortage of funds before the Spring Festival, the central bank may reduce the reserve ratio or interest rate in the short term.
Third, China's settlement data showed that the number of new investors in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges last week was 300400, up 55.1% month on month, ending the three consecutive weeks of decline. The net inflow of security deposits last week was 149.4 billion yuan. This will be conducive to resolving the risk of "two financial strength".
In addition, China's import and export data in December far exceeded expectations, with exports up 2.3%, imports down 4%, and a trade surplus of 382.05 billion yuan, an increase of 24.7%.
Is the market bottoming out?
Compared with the method of promoting weight plate protection, the effect of promoting GEM is obviously better, which was proved during the stock market rescue last year. The GEM yesterday received a merger of Changyang Line, and the positive line entity completely covered the negative line of the previous day. Does this indicate that the market has bottomed out?
According to Damo Investment, the current technical indicators are at a low level, and after continuous correction, there is little room for the index to continue downward correction in the short term. However, due to limited incremental funds, it is expected that the index will continue to fluctuate around 3000 points in the future. From a fundamental point of view, the main reason for the decline of the index since the New Year is still the concern about the uncontrolled devaluation of the RMB. However, recently the Central Bank has stabilized the central parity of the RMB through various means, and suppressed arbitrage trading through the strategy of withdrawing offshore RMB liquidity. Currently, the price gap between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits has been basically filled, It is expected that the trend of RMB depreciation will be controlled in the future. It is expected that the 2900~3000 point line of the Shanghai Stock Index is the periodic bottom area of A-shares, and there is limited space for the index to continue to fall sharply.
Ningbo Haishun believes that the theme concept stocks are warming up across the board, small and medium-sized enterprises are performing strongly, and the stock market is generally rising. The shortcoming is that there is no obvious volume expansion. Without the cooperation of capacity, the strength and sustainability of the rebound still need to be considered; In addition, after the market has experienced a sharp decline, it takes time to repair technical indicators and restore popularity, which cannot be achieved overnight. It is suggested that investors should not blindly chase the high and control their positions.
Jufeng Investment Advisors believe that the market has been severely oversold recently, and there will be a rebound after the slump. After falling below 2900 points, the Shanghai Stock Index began to repair itself, the pressure of major shareholders to lift the ban was gradually released, the pressure of RMB devaluation was eased, and the number of listed shares was controlled, which was conducive to market stability.
Qin Hong, a consultant of Jin Bailin, believes that yesterday's rebound does not mean a new round of rising market for A-shares. After all, the Changyang K Line on Thursday greatly consumed the energy of bulls, especially the ability to follow the trend of buying. What's more, the current trading volume of A-share market has not significantly expanded, which indicates that the market game is still dominated by stock funds. As a result, the market lacks sustained and effective price pursuit. It is expected that the short-term Shanghai Stock Index is very likely to repeatedly pull around the 3000 point line.