[Shenzhen Business Daily] (Reporter Chen Faqing) The price of aircraft is going to rise. On January 12, Airbus announced that it would increase the average catalog price of all Airbus models by about 1.1% from January 2016. The reporter learned that with the rapid development of China's civil aviation industry, the growth of transport capacity will become the norm, and the fluctuations of crude oil prices and exchange rates in the international market will bring huge fluctuations to airline earnings, so avoiding risks has become an important topic.

Aircraft procurement costs rise

Civil aviation airliners in China are mainly Airbus and Boeing. According to the latest price, the latest A330-800neo aircraft costs 252.3 million dollars, the A330-900neo unit price is 287.7 million dollars, and the A380 Big Mac costs 432.6 million dollars. For the aircraft whose purchase unit is more than 100 million dollars, even if it increases by 1%, it is a huge number.

In the past 2015, Airbus successfully delivered 635 aircrafts, hitting a record high in the company's history and achieving 13 consecutive years of growth. By the end of 2015, Airbus's reserve orders had climbed to 6787, a new industry record, valued at US $996.3 billion at catalog prices. If these reserve orders are increased by 1.1 percentage points, the total value will increase by 10 billion dollars.

The reporter learned that, except for the three major domestic airlines, all Spring Airlines fleets use Airbus to fly, and 1.33 billion yuan of the funds raised from the listing will be used to purchase nine Airbus A320 aircraft. In addition, in the authoritative media report on October 29 last year, it is said that China has also reached an order for 130 aircraft with Airbus, with a total value of about 17 billion dollars. If the order is converted to a confirmed order, the Chinese aviation enterprises will pay nearly 200 million dollars more for this change based on the price after the Airbus price increase.

However, this is just the beginning. Aircraft procurement is usually not paid in full, which means there is interest. The reporter learned that at present, more than 70% of the debt of Chinese aviation enterprises is calculated in dollars, and changes in the exchange market will have a huge impact on the annual earnings.

The reporter learned from the quarterly report of Air China that in the first half of 2015, Air China's performance increased in advance, with net profit increasing by 701%~743% year on year; According to the report in the third quarter of 2015, Air China realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 6.28 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 98.1% year on year. The depreciation of RMB has reduced the growth rate of net profit of aviation enterprises.

Falling oil price drives up the revenue of aviation enterprises

Nevertheless, the benefits of domestic listed aviation enterprises in the first three quarters of last year are still very optimistic. The reporter learned that, in addition to the consumption income brought by the continuous growth of civil aviation travel, the international crude oil price continued to decline, which played a "bottom-up" role in the actual income of aviation enterprises.

At the beginning of 2016, the international crude oil price began to hit new lows. On January 11, the crude oil price in the New York market began to fall below $30 per barrel for the first time in 12 years. The reporter learned that thanks to the low level of international oil prices last year, the three major domestic listed airlines made a lot of money. Data shows that the revenue of China Southern Airlines in the first three quarters of last year was 85.33 billion yuan, up 4.28%; Net profit was 4.66 billion yuan, up 270%. China Eastern Airlines' revenue in the first three quarters of last year was 71.963 billion yuan, up 4.57%; The net profit was 5.33 billion yuan, up 159%.

In particular, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released a new pricing mechanism for refined oil products on January 13. When the international oil price is lower than 40 dollars per barrel, the domestic refined oil price will not be lowered. However, the reporter learned that the aviation kerosene pricing mechanism is completely linked with the international crude oil price at present, and is not affected by the new refined oil pricing mechanism, which means that aviation enterprises will continue to enjoy the benefits brought by the decline in international crude oil prices. According to Zou Maogong, an aviation expert, aviation fuel has always been the most important cost of airline operations. In the past, aviation fuel expenditure accounted for about 30%~40% of airline operating costs. With the decline of oil prices since last year, the proportion of aviation fuel cost has been less than 30%. Some analysts believe that in 2016, the price of crude oil will continue to fall, and is expected to reach $20/barrel, or even $10/barrel.

Reduce USD liabilities

Avoiding the risk of US dollar appreciation

The reporter learned that at present, the US dollar is continuously strengthening and the RMB is depreciating, and the three airlines are also adjusting the debt scale of the US dollar.

The reporter learned from Air China's 2015 semi annual report that at the end of the first half of last year, Air China's total liabilities were 152 billion yuan, with a debt to asset ratio of 69%. Among the three major airlines, Air China has 71% of its liabilities in US dollars, the smallest proportion; China Southern Airlines has the highest dollar debt ratio, 94.7%. China Southern Airlines is planning to reduce its US dollar debt to nearly 70%. On January 5, China Eastern Airlines announced that in order to optimize the company's debt structure and reduce the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, it has repaid the principal of US $1 billion debt, reducing the scale of US $debt.

Some aviation enterprises are grasping the pace of listing to solve the capital problem of the company's development. At present, both Donghai Airlines and Qingdao Airlines are preparing for listing, and relevant professional securities institutions of Donghai Airlines have entered the market. The relevant person in charge of Donghai Airlines said in an interview that through raising funds, it is expected to invest 30 billion to 50 billion yuan accumulatively in the next 10 years. "In five years, 50 Boeing B737-800 and B-737MAX airliners, 4 to 6 Boeing B787 wide body airliners will be introduced, and the fleet size will reach 70."