Dynamic report of small metal industry: resource scarcity+supply rigidity+demand determination antimony price is easy to rise but difficult to fall
Core viewpoints
Antimony: antimony concentrate/antimony ingot/antimony oxide rose by 4.2%/6.0%/4.4% respectively this week. On the supply side, the shortage of antimony concentrate raw materials continues, and the domestic antimony ingot/antimony oxide operating rate is still in a position. Looking forward to the future, we continue our previous view that even if the environmental protection supervision is over, the smelting capacity in Hunan can resume production, but due to the shortage of raw materials, the smelter will also face the dilemma of "no rice for cooking"; The import volume of polar gold ores is difficult to meet the growth of downstream demand, and the impact of the import shock of Russian antimony ores on prices may be limited. On the demand side, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of domestic photovoltaic glass production from January to May was 57.4%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of domestic bromine apparent consumption from January to April was 5.2%. The demand for photovoltaic glass continues to increase, and the demand for flame retardants is expected to rise in the context of the recovery of the electronic cycle.
Industry dynamic information
Antimony: The price of antimony concentrate (50%) this week was 125000 yuan/metal ton, up 4.2% from last week; The price of antimony ingot (99.65%) was 150500 yuan/ton, up 6.0% from last week; The price of antimony oxide (99.5%) was 129500 yuan/ton, up 4.4% from last week. On the supply side, the shortage of antimony concentrate raw materials continues, and the domestic antimony ingot/antimony oxide operating rate is still in a position. Looking forward to the future, we continue our previous view that even if the environmental protection supervision is over, the smelting capacity in Hunan can resume production, but due to the shortage of raw materials, the smelter will also face the dilemma of "no rice for cooking"; The import volume of polar gold ores is difficult to meet the growth of downstream demand, and the impact of the import shock of Russian antimony ores on prices may be limited. On the demand side, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of domestic photovoltaic glass production from January to May was 57.4%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of domestic bromine apparent consumption from January to April was 5.2%. The demand for photovoltaic glass continues to increase, and the demand for flame retardants is expected to rise in the context of the recovery of the electronic cycle. Under the resonance of supply and demand, the center of antimony price is expected to continue to rise.
Molybdenum: The price of molybdenum concentrate (45% - 50%) this week was 3845 yuan/ton, down 1.3% from last week; The price of ferromolybdenum (60% Mo) was 250500 yuan/basic ton, unchanged from last week. According to the tungsten and molybdenum cloud merchants, the domestic ferromolybdenum steel volume was about 11600 tons in May, and the cumulative volume of ferromolybdenum steel volume from January to May 2024 was about 63000 tons, an increase of about 37% over the same period last year; According to comprehensive analysis, the monthly average steel bidding volume from January to May 2024 is 12600 tons, which is about 20% more than the monthly average steel bidding volume in 2023. As an important additive for the upgrading of manufacturing and military materials, the demand for molybdenum continues to grow. Zijin Mining's mineral molybdenum output guidance in 2028 is 25000 to 35000 tons, which is significantly lower than our previous expectations. Supply concerns are eliminated, and the valuation center of molybdenum standard is expected to move up.
