Dynamic report of small metal industry: supply and demand resonate; antimony price breaks through upward supply concerns; the valuation center of eliminating molybdenum standard is expected to move upward
Core viewpoints
Antimony: antimony concentrate/antimony ingot/antimony oxide rose 8.9%/8.5%/8.4% respectively this week. At the supply side, the shortage of antimony concentrate raw materials continued. Superimposed on the impact of environmental protection supervision in Hunan Province on the production capacity at the smelting side, the domestic antimony ingot/antimony oxide output continued to decline month on month. On the demand side, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of domestic photovoltaic glass production from January to April was 55.9%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of domestic integrated circuit production from March to April was 28.3%. The demand for photovoltaic glass continues to increase, and the demand for flame retardants is expected to rise in the context of the recovery of the electronic cycle.
Molybdenum: As of May 16, domestic ferromolybdenum steel bidding volume was about 7100 tons; From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of ferromolybdenum steel was 37.2%, and the added value of China's industries above designated size in April increased by 6.7%, which fully reflects the strong demand of domestic manufacturing industry. As an important additive for the upgrading of manufacturing and military materials, the demand for molybdenum continues to improve. Zijin Mining's 2028 mineral molybdenum output guidance will be 25000 to 35000 tons, which is significantly lower than our previous expectations. The valuation center of eliminating molybdenum standard due to supply concerns is expected to move up.
Industry dynamic information
Antimony: The price of antimony concentrate (50%) this week was 98000 yuan/metal ton, up 8.9% from last week; The price of antimony ingots (99.65%) was 115000 yuan/ton, up 8.5% from last week; The price of antimony oxide (99.5%) was 103000 yuan/ton, 8.4% higher than last week. At the supply side, the shortage of antimony concentrate raw materials continued. Superimposed on the impact of environmental protection supervision in Hunan Province on the production capacity at the smelting side, the domestic antimony ingot/antimony oxide output continued to decline month on month. On the demand side, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of domestic photovoltaic glass production from January to April was 55.9%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of domestic integrated circuit production from March to April was 28.3%. The demand for photovoltaic glass continues to increase, and the demand for flame retardants is expected to rise in the context of the recovery of the electronic cycle. Under the resonance of supply and demand, the center of antimony price is expected to continue to rise.
Molybdenum: The price of molybdenum concentrate (45% - 50%) this week was 3695 yuan/ton, down 1.9% from last week; The price of ferromolybdenum (60% Mo) was 240500 yuan/basic ton, down 1.6% from last week.
According to Yilan, as of May 16, the domestic ferromolybdenum steel bidding volume was about 7100 tons; From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of ferromolybdenum steel was 37.2%, and the added value of China's industries above designated size in April increased by 6.7%, which fully reflects the strong demand of domestic manufacturing industry. As an important additive for the upgrading of manufacturing and military materials, the demand for molybdenum continues to improve. Zijin Mining's mineral molybdenum output guidance in 2028 is 25000 to 35000 tons, which is significantly lower than our previous expectations. Supply concerns are eliminated, and the valuation center of molybdenum standard is expected to move up.
Tungsten: The price of scheelite concentrate (65%, domestic) this week was 153000 yuan/ton, up 6% from last week; APT price was 228000/ton, up 6% from last week. The shortage at the end of the mine caused by environmental pressure and the natural decline of the grade of the old mine is still continuing. The supply of short-term tungsten concentrate is relatively rigid, while the growth of military tungsten alloy and photovoltaic tungsten wire is highly deterministic, and the short-term price is relatively strong. In the future, tungsten recovery and overseas Bakuta tungsten mine mining may become the core factors to ease the tension of tungsten concentrate.
