Summary of 2023 Annual Report and 2024 First Quarter Report of Biological Products Industry: Stable Growth of Blood Products; Renewal of Insulin Contract Helps Domestic Substitution
Core point:
The biological products sector has passed the performance low point, and the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic has been cleared. According to wind data, in 2023, listed companies in the biological products sector will achieve a total revenue of 138.412 billion yuan (+14%, the following are year-on-year caliber), net profit attributable to the parent company of 26.151 billion yuan (- 4%), and net profit not attributable to the parent company of 24.985 billion yuan (- 1%). The decline in the profit side is mainly due to inventory impairment and asset impairment of some enterprises for COVID-19 vaccine. The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic has been cleared, and the impact of centralized purchase of some products has been gradually digested, and the overall plate continues to warm up.
Blood products entered the performance cashing period of new plasma stations. The growth space of blood product companies depends on the increase of plasma collection volume and profit per ton of plasma. (1) The growth of plasma collection mainly depends on the number of new plasma stations. From 2021-2023, there will be about 62 new plasma collection stations in China, and the sector has entered the performance fulfillment period of new plasma stations.
(2) In terms of profit per ton of slurry, thanks to the post epidemic IVC catalysis, all kinds of blood products have been released, and enterprise inventory and channel inventory have been rapidly digested. In 2023, Boya Biotech's profit per ton of slurry will exceed 1.2 million yuan, ranking at the forefront of the industry. (3) In 23 years, the receivables and finished product inventory of blood products enterprises were at a low level in nearly five years. In the short term, the overall supply and demand of blood products were still in a tight balance.
The performance of the vaccine industry is under pressure, and the release of heavy varieties+domestic vaccines is expected to promote the development of the industry.
Although the impact of COVID-19 vaccine has been digested, the vaccine sector is still affected by the decline in the number of newborns and the intensification of product competition, and the performance of most vaccine enterprises is under pressure. Vaccine enterprises are actively looking for ways to break the situation; (1) The impairment related to the provision of COVID-19 vaccine was at a low base in 23 years, and the growth of conventional products resumed. The business operation of the company in 24 years is expected to gradually improve year on year and month on month; (2) Continuous promotion of the pipeline under research+large-scale marketing of heavy products to support medium and long-term development, such as PCV13, diploid rabid vaccine, blister vaccine, etc; (3) With the historical opportunity of COVID-19 vaccine, domestic enterprises actively promote internationalization.
The insulin contract renewal is implemented, which is good for domestic substitution. The results of insulin renewal proposed to be selected were released, with an average decrease of 3.8%. The domestic products were basically selected from Group A, of which 6 products of Ganli Pharmaceutical were all selected, and the bid winning price increased by 5% to 48%. Tonghua Dongbao and TUL all selected from Group A, and Tonghua Dongbao's newly added aspart insulin 30 injection was selected from Group A. Domestic enterprises are expected to share the volume reported by some foreign-funded enterprises, This round of centralized purchase renewal is beneficial to domestic substitution.
Investment advice. (1) Blood products: The growth space of blood products company depends on the increase of plasma collection volume and profit per ton of plasma, and Tiantan Biology, Boya Biology and Hualan Biology are mainly recommended; (2) Vaccine: the variety is the king, and Zhifei Biology, which has a echelon of products with high commercial value, is mainly recommended, focusing on Wantai Biology, Baike Biology, etc; (3) Protein medicine industry: new patients of growth hormone are expected to benefit from the recovery of post epidemic diagnosis and treatment, and Changchun High tech and Security Biology are recommended; Insulin contract renewal is implemented, which is good for domestic substitution. Ganli Pharmaceutical and Tonghua Dongbao are recommended.
Risk warning. Sales did not meet expectations; R&D progress is not as expected; Risk of industrial policy adjustment.
