The steady increase of feed sales contributes to profits, and the upward profits of pig and chicken cycle are expected to improve. The rating company that maintains "buy" will release the 2023 annual report, and in 2023, it will achieve a revenue of 35.97 billion yuan, yoy+9.63%, a net profit attributable to the mother of - 457 million yuan, yoy-189.13%, of which the revenue of 9078 million yuan, yoy-2.29%, a net profit attributable to the mother of - 497 million yuan, yoy-404.45% will be achieved in 2023Q4. The early introduction gap of white feather chicken has been transmitted to broilers, and the supply is expected to be tight for 2024. With the pig cycle turning upward, the company's profitability is expected to further improve.
We raised the company's profit forecast for 2024-2025 and added a new profit forecast for 2026. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent in 2024-2026 will be 926/12.46/939 million yuan respectively (the original forecast for 2024-2025 will be 829/1097 yuan respectively), the corresponding EPS will be 1.01/1.36/1.02 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 7.2/5.4/7.1 times. The steady growth of feed sales contributed to profits, and the upward profitability of pig and chicken cycle is expected to improve, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The feed business is developing steadily, and the sales volume is growing steadily. The profit per ton is expected to improve the feeding business. In 2023, the revenue will be 16.47 billion yuan, yoy+5.29%, and the net profit will be 390 million yuan. The external sales volume of feed will be 4.3052 million tons, yoy+7.88%, and the net profit per ton will be 90 yuan/ton. By category, the sales of pig feed, poultry feed, ruminant feed and other materials are 155.65, 184.95, 74.21 and 157000 tons, yoy 0.10%,+22.70%,+0.87% and - 17.28%. In 2023, the company will continue to promote the proportion of large customers in the large-scale field, and the planned total export of feed will be more than yoy+10%.
The performance of white chicken breeding continued to improve, and the slaughtering capacity steadily increased. In 2023, the poultry business will achieve a revenue of 11.212 billion yuan, yoy+20.77%, and a net profit of - 320 million yuan. The annual breeding cost of white feather broilers was about 4.6 yuan/jin, the feed to meat ratio dropped to 1.55 (1.6 in 2022), and the European Index rose to 415, and the production performance continued to improve. The total annual slaughtering capacity of the company's white feather chicken holding shares exceeds 1.1 billion. In 2023, the slaughtering capacity will be 810 million, yoy+13%. It is estimated that in 2024, the slaughtering capacity will be 860 million, and the slaughtering capacity will increase steadily.
The pig business optimizes the structure of the pig farm, and promotes the cost reduction to maintain stability. In 2023, the pig business will achieve a revenue of 2.576 billion yuan, yoy+25.19%, and a net profit of - 470 million yuan. 1.16 million pigs were sold throughout the year, including 9.1/21/4 million pigs for fattening/piglets/breeding pigs. In February 2024, the company will be able to breed 40000 pigs and reserve 14000. It is estimated that 1.2-14 million pigs will be sold in 2024.
The company promotes the optimization of the internal pig farm structure, and it is estimated that the full cost will be reduced to 17.5 yuan/kg in 2024.
Risk tip: the company's cost is less than expected, the price rise of pigs and chickens is less than expected, epidemic risk, and raw material price risk.
