Analysis of Zhengdan Co., Ltd. (300641): It is good at comprehensive utilization of C9 aromatics and environmental protection to drive the growth of vinylidene materials
As a fine chemical enterprise with leading core technology, the comprehensive layout of C9 aromatics is basically formed: the company develops the whole C9 industrial chain by extending upstream and downstream. The raw material end has gradually changed from purchasing vinylidene benzene to purchasing reforming C9. After rectification, the intermediate products vinylidene benzene, methyl ethylbenzene isomer and high boiling point aromatics can be produced. The product end has independently developed high-end environment-friendly plasticizer TOTM, vinyl toluene monomer and high boiling point aromatics solvent. At present, TMA and TOTM are the company's main profitable products, with gross profit accounting for 70% and 11% respectively. Vinyltoluene is in the introduction period, with less profit contribution but great growth potential.
The coordinated development of TMA and TOTM, high-end environmental protection substitution is the main direction: the refined utilization rate of domestic reformed C9 aromatics is only 25-30%, and the downstream is dominated by mixing and extraction. Relying on the advantages of TMA and TOTM products, the company gradually focuses on C9 as its raw materials. In terms of downstream demand, it is estimated that the world consumption of meta anhydride will reach 230000 tons in 2020, and the domestic consumption will reach 129000 tons; TOTM consumption will reach 153000 tons. The non-toxic TOTM has obvious advantages in the fields of food and drugs, wires and cables, and strong consumption. In the future, it has great potential to replace o-benzene plasticizers to realize the transformation of plasticizer consumption. Vinyltoluene is the only company in the United States that has large-scale production technology. It is expected to open up growth space to carry out styrene substitution in high-end fields in the future.
Funded projects consolidate the position of the industry, and environmental protection supervision promotes downstream transformation: TMA is mainly concentrated in four enterprises in China, with the actual output of about 50000 tons, accounting for 50%. The 40000 ton/year trimellitic anhydride project funded by this fundraising will further consolidate the position of the industry. Excluding the self use output, the utilization rate of the company's main production capacity continues to exceed 100%, and the prospect of fund-raising projects is promising. In addition, driven by national environmental protection laws and regulations, the company's benzene like environmental protection products directly benefit. It is estimated that the total consumption of plasticizers in China will reach 3.65 million tons in 2020, and the market share of metabenzenes (about 100000 tons) will continue to expand.
Investment suggestion: It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2017-2019 will be 0.54 yuan, 0.70 yuan and 0.86 yuan respectively; For the first time, the investment rating of "Increase in Share-A" was given, and the six-month target price was 20.0 yuan, corresponding to 37 times, 29 times and 23 times of PE in 2017-2019.
Risk tip: continuous price war among competitors
