Original title: These two figures can show the trend of China's economy

The macroeconomic data of April was recently released, and the trend of China's economic recovery was confirmed again.

On the whole, although the growth rate of some indicators has slowed down due to the impact of holidays, staggered months, base effect, etc., the main indicators of industry, export, employment, prices and so on have generally improved.

Among them, two economic indicators are facing a reversal. From these two figures, we can see the trend of China's economy.

One is import and export.

In April, the growth rate of import and export of goods turned positive from negative, up 8% year on year. Cumulatively, the import and export scale from January to April reached a record high in the same period.

Against the background of the increasing complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment, the growth rate of import and export has changed from negative to positive, exceeding market expectations, showing the resilience of foreign trade.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, told Sanlihe that exports were better than expected. On the one hand, global manufacturing PMI kept expanding and demand was good. On the other hand, export products from China became more competitive, and new energy vehicle exports continued to grow at more than double digits.

Imports also performed well. In April, the import of goods increased by 12.2% year on year, significantly faster than the export growth, which reflects the good trend of the recovery of domestic demand.

The second is price.

The month on month CPI in April increased from a decrease of 1% last month to an increase of 0.1%. From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 0.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of last month.

Among them, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices also increased from a decline of 0.6% last month to an increase of 0.2% month on month.

Although this data seems small, it has great implications, which indicates that the price level has begun to stabilize and rise, and consumer demand is in a sustained recovery trend.

At present, China is striving to expand domestic demand and promote consumption. Whether from the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday or the May Day holiday, the booming holiday economy makes the outside world feel the "hot" economy and society. With the gradual implementation of consumer policies such as trade in of consumer goods, the consumption potential is expected to be continuously released.

In addition to the reversion of these two indicators, there are many indicators showing the trend of expansion or improvement.

Among them, industrial production accelerated. In April, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.7% year on year, 2.2 percentage points faster than that of the previous month. The growth rate of more than 80% of industries and nearly 60% of products rebounded.

The manufacturing purchasing managers' index has been in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the year-on-year growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size has increased for three consecutive quarters.

At the same time, new driving forces continue to accumulate and the economy is gaining new momentum.

From January to April, the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size accounted for 32.4% of all industries above designated size, and the added value of high-tech manufacturing industry accounted for 15.4%, which has continued to increase since this year; The output of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 33.2% and 18.2% respectively year on year.

The reversion of two economic indicators and the improvement of indicators in many fields convey the stamina of economic growth and expand the space for economic development.

Of course, there are both good achievements and great challenges.

The data in April showed that the current real estate market is still in adjustment, which has slowed down economic growth to a certain extent.

However, recently, a series of new policies on heavy real estate have been introduced, including lowering the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans, canceling the lower limit of the national commercial personal housing loan interest rate policy for the first and second housing, and reducing the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first housing to no less than 15%.

In addition, destocking also ushered in a good situation. In cities with large inventory of commercial housing, the government can order and purchase some commercial housing as affordable housing at reasonable prices.

A series of new policies, with great efforts, will bring substantial benefits to the real estate market.

The reversal or improvement of many indicators and the injection of confidence and vitality into the real estate market are crucial to the continued recovery of the economy.

Produced by "Sanlihe" Studio