In the past few days, two typhoons, "Sula" and "Haikui", have landed on the coast of South China for five times, bringing serious wind and rain effects. Before that, Beijing Tianjin Hebei suffered a rare heavy rain at the end of July. In late June, North China experienced the strongest heat process in nearly a decade. In early June, tornadoes occurred in many places in Northeast China... With the global warming, various extreme weather events occurred frequently, and we witnessed the birth of one historical record after another. How to effectively improve climate governance capacity? How to effectively promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the economy? What are the opportunities and challenges for China's new energy development under the dual carbon goals? At the just concluded Second International Meteorological Economic Summit Forum, several industry heavyweight guests had in-depth exchanges and discussions on this issue.

The warming in the past 50 years is unprecedented in the past 2000 years

Qin Dahe, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, pointed out that according to the latest sixth assessment report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the warming in the past 50 years was unprecedented in the past 2000 years, and the global average temperature in the past 10 years exceeded 1.09 ℃ in the late 19th century. He has been engaged in scientific research on cryosphere and climate change for a long time and used two videos to show the impact of climate warming on cryosphere. One is the large-scale collapse of Hailuogou Glacier in Gongga Mountain in 2022, with a large number of ice bodies pouring down together with the melt water in the snow basin. The other is that on June 19 of this year, the Kezhou Glacier in Xinjiang caused a severe ice avalanche due to the high temperature. What are the consequences of melting glaciers? Relevant research shows that if the Antarctic glaciers melt completely, the global sea level will rise by about 58 meters, and if Greenland melts completely, the sea level will rise by about 7 meters. It is urgent to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

So, how to take the road of green transformation? Qin Dahe said that, first of all, we should not limit ourselves to climate change. We should promote sustainable development from a global perspective, and we should comprehensively consider water resources, pollution, biodiversity and other elements of the earth system. Secondly, we should put people first, measure the impact on humanity and the planet, and take action to improve well-being and reduce inequality. In addition, cities that only account for 2.4% of the land surface area consume about 78% of the world's energy and emit about 70% of the world's greenhouse gases. Therefore, the joint efforts of big cities and mega enterprises will help to achieve the global emission reduction goals.

Seeking the best carbon neutral path Global action

As the co chairman of the first working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Zhang Xiaoyao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, believes that China's commitment to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is not only due to climate change, but also related to the country's new development path. China should face the fourth industrial revolution directly, and even lead the fourth industrial revolution. Therefore, China should actively participate in global governance, and forge a new path of green, low-carbon and high-quality development. So, how to find an optimal carbon neutral path? Zhang Xiaoyao said that this requires a high and deep cross integration of natural scientists and social scientists, a comprehensive plan of multiple goals, and the interaction of at least five levels of the climate system, energy structure, industrial structure, economic society, and policy management.

Huang Tao, a professor of Peking University, analyzed the value reconstruction under climate change from the perspective of economics. At present, with the frequent occurrence of extreme disasters such as high temperature and rainstorm, people have already had an intuitive understanding of climate change and are worried about the future climate. This has improved the willingness of all people to pay for curbing climate degradation, thus promoting the whole society to carry out value reconstruction. However, this requires appropriate mechanism arrangements to be effectively implemented. For the government, long-term and orderly institutional arrangements are needed; For enterprises, it is necessary to take ESG as the representative to reshape enterprise values and management system; For residents, how to effectively change the public's value judgments and action choices still needs exploration and efforts.

Globally, the development of new energy has become a consensus, and all countries are actively seeking feasible solutions. According to Zhou Yuanbing, President of the Economic and Technological Research Institute of the Global Energy Internet Development Cooperation Organization, as the first international organization in the energy field initiated by China, the "Global Energy Internet Carbon Neutralization Program" proposed by the Global Energy Internet Development Cooperation Organization has been included in the sixth assessment report of the IPCC of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, It has become one of the seven typical scenarios in the world.

Roberta Boscolo, scientific officer of the World Meteorological Organization, also released the guide "Integrated Weather and Climate Services to Support the Net Zero Energy Transition" at this forum. The book provides 14 practical cases on integrated weather and climate services, and shows how to seek a better business model, strengthen capacity development, capacity building, and obtain more policy support to accelerate the energy transition, Achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Opportunities and challenges of new energy development under the dual carbon target

Under the dual carbon goal, China's new energy has achieved leapfrog development. He Yang, Deputy Director of the National Energy Administration, used a set of data to show the achievements of China's new energy development: from January to July this year, China's wind photovoltaic power generation reached 856.9 billion kWh, accounting for 17.1% of the total power generation, which exceeded the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents in the same period; In the first half of this year, the export volume of wind power and photovoltaic products exceeded 30.5 billion US dollars; In the first half of this year, China's wind power photovoltaic power generation capacity was equivalent to 220 million tons of standard coal, which is equivalent to reducing carbon dioxide emissions of 610 million tons. During the same period, China's export of wind power photovoltaic products reduced carbon dioxide emissions of 120 million tons for other countries, and the two together made a huge contribution to global carbon reduction and emission reduction of 730 million tons; The conversion efficiency of mass produced advanced high-efficiency batteries in China has now reached 25.5%, and the highest efficiency of research and development of crystalline silicon batteries is 26.8%, which has repeatedly broken world records.

However, at the same time, the development of photovoltaic silicon technology has also approached the theoretical upper limit of 27%, and has encountered obvious bottlenecks, which urgently needs technological innovation. As the chief scientist of GCL Perovskite, Fan Bin proposed in the report that perovskite is currently considered to be the third generation photovoltaic technology most likely to upgrade and replace crystalline silicon technology. It is an artificial crystal, which can achieve high photoelectric conversion efficiency through active design, and can significantly reduce manufacturing costs. When perovskite technology is introduced, the efficiency of crystalline silicon can be further improved to more than 35%. After the full development of perovskite technology, the cost per kilowatt hour of domestic power stations will be reduced from about 3 yuan to 2.4 yuan, and the energy consumption per watt and greenhouse gas emissions per kilowatt hour of power generation will also be reduced.

How does meteorology serve the high-quality development of new energy

Energy production and supply are closely related to meteorology. China's meteorological department has played an important role in the start and development of new energy. In addition, in summer, winter and extreme weather, the meteorological department will also timely provide meteorological warning, disaster monitoring and other information, which strongly supports the safe and stable supply of energy.

All key links of the new energy system are closely related to weather and climate change. So how to realize the development of high-quality new energy meteorological services?

Shen Yanbo, the scientific director of the Wind Energy and Solar Energy Center of the China Meteorological Administration, believes that from the perspective of energy production, wind energy and solar energy resources determine the new energy planning, layout and power generation benefits. In the future, we need to pay attention to the wind resource assessment of large wind turbines and the resource coordination of photovoltaic and solar thermal power generation in the overall layout; From the perspective of energy supply, the fluctuation of scenery resources has become one of the decisive factors affecting the construction and operation of the new power system. Fine weather forecasting will provide important support for solving the problems of power grid dispatching and power trading; From the perspective of energy consumption, extreme high temperature and cold weather have led to new high power loads; From the perspective of energy system security, the impact of large-scale meteorological disasters will run through the whole process of energy production, supply and consumption, so it is urgent to build a professional and refined early warning system for energy, electricity and meteorological disasters.

Against the backdrop of climate change, the green and low-carbon transformation of energy has a long way to go, and all parties need to work together to forge ahead. As one of the top ten summit forums of this year's World Trade Fair for Services, the Second International Meteorological Economic Summit Forum is hosted by the World Meteorological Organization, co sponsored by the Global Energy Internet Development Cooperation Organization and the China Green Carbon Foundation, and hosted by the China Meteorological Service Association. Its purpose is to gather scientific ideas, collide ideas, and build consensus on development, so as to help the development of new energy Promote the construction of a clean and beautiful world and make new and greater contributions.