The growth rate is higher than expected, and the momentum is expected to continue - some foreign financial institutions judge China's export situation

2024-06-14 09:09 Xinhua Editor in charge: Wu Jing

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, June 13 Title: The growth rate is higher than expected, and the momentum is expected to continue - some foreign financial institutions judge China's export situation

Ren Jun and Youzhixin, reporters of Xinhua News Agency

According to the data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in May, China's exports in RMB grew 11.2% year on year, and those in US dollars grew 7.6% year on year, faster than that in April. Many interviewed foreign financial institutions said that thanks to the improvement of global competitiveness of Chinese goods, the improvement of foreign demand, the low base in the same period last year and other factors, China's export growth in May exceeded expectations, and the growth momentum is expected to continue in the coming months.

"In recent years, China's export performance has exceeded expectations, and the monthly fluctuation is small, supporting the continuous recovery of China's economy." said Tamur Baig, chief economist of the research department of Singapore DBS Group.

From the perspective of export destinations, China's exports to the United States, the European Union, ASEAN, Brazil and other places in May were better than last month. Xiong Yi, chief economist of Deutsche Bank in China, observed that China's exports showed good resilience again in May, especially China's exports to ASEAN and Latin America.

"China's export performance exceeded expectations and China has promoted the diversification of export regions in recent years. In the past, the United States, Europe, Japan and other developed economies dominated China's export destinations, but now the proportion of exports to emerging economies, especially Latin America, Africa, ASEAN and other places continues to rise." said Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JPMorgan China.

From the perspective of export structure, China's export products have improved "quality" to "new", and the export momentum of high-end, intelligent and green products is good. In the first five months, electromechanical products with high technology content and added value accounted for nearly 60% of exports. The export of ships, electric vehicles and household appliances increased by 100.1%, 26.3% and 17.8% respectively.

"Since this year, the rebound of global demand for electronic products has led to the acceleration of China's export of electronic products." Ji Mo, chief economist of DBS China, said that some leading indicators focusing on SMEs' exporters showed that global demand for Chinese goods is rising.

Zhu Haibin believes that in recent years, European and American countries have experienced high inflation and rising labor costs, and China's competitive advantage in export products is strengthening.

Many experts from foreign financial institutions predict that China's export will continue to grow.

"The trade activities of China's surrounding economies continue to be stable, indicating the steady recovery of foreign demand." Wang Tao, head of UBS Asia Economic Research and chief China economist, believes that although the U.S. government announced in May to impose tariffs on some products imported from China, these products only account for a small part of China's total exports, and the impact of tariffs on China's exports is limited.

Lu Ting, chief economist of Nomura China, is also optimistic about the continued positive trend of China's exports. He said that China's commodity competitiveness is strong, superimposed on the low base effect, Nomura has raised the expected growth rate of China's exports in 2024 by 0.7 percentage points.

key word: China's exports, foreign-funded financial institutions, export proportion, export structure, growth ratio

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