A new trend in foreign exchange: gold? Defeat magic with magic

Everyone is more or less weak now, right? Ha ha, this is the real face of the trading market.

(Data map)

Who is not? I am also waiting for the PCE data at night. I wish I had a time remote control in my hand now, so that I can fast forward the time to tonight. You should understand that as long as you are in this market, most of the trading scenarios are passive, and there are few cases where you can see benefits immediately after entering the market. In short, habit is good.

As for the explanation of the data of ADP small non-agricultural farmers, I have written clearly in my article last night. I don't want to repeat it here. Those who haven't seen it can review it by themselves. You must be very curious about tonight's PCE data, and also want to know whether it is good or bad gold. Of course, I have my own analysis in it, but the data can only be analyzed, No one can predict the result, just like last night's GDP, who could have expected such a large difference to benefit the result?

Of course, what is the market sentiment of gold from Monday to now? It's not inflation.

But the decline in the number of job vacancies shows that the US job market has cooled. After the ADP was announced, the number of people also met the pessimistic expectations of the market. Now for the big non farm workers on Friday, there are 95% of the emotional explosion points that it will definitely benefit gold. In addition, the unexpected chill of GDP data has increased the expectation of the US economy being suspended, These are all things that the Federal Reserve would like to see very much, so with these things, the market will naturally not think that the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates within the year, or even cut interest rates in advance.

The above is a conventional analysis. Maybe you will ask with these things now, are you still bearish on gold after this? I can't answer this question now, because I know that if gold falls in the future, the mood will rebound, and then there will be a new explanation in the market. You will also use this explanation to question bulls, and you are still bullish on gold? So there is no point in answering this question.

Compared with the current market sentiment, PCE is obviously an outsider, but it can play a key role in disrupting, because no matter what data you compare, you always want to get the result of inflation decline, so that you can make a final decision on the future trend of the interest rate market. So tonight is the best time for me to watch the gold sentiment fight back.

Many people's focus was on the good data last night, but they ignored a very surprising data, called the total number of existing housing sales, which recorded an increase of 0.9% in July when the interest rate was so high, even when the employment market and wage cooling were reported. Do you know what the market expected- 0.4%. The hot real estate market will also drive up housing inflation to a certain extent. In addition, the soaring sales will also drive the growth of furniture and electrical appliances and other retail industries, as well as crude oil, which also rose significantly throughout July. I will not go to see PCE fall below market expectations at this time. The rebound is the result of my analysis.

Not only me, but also the market thinks so. It's just that I have analyzed the reason. You may also ask, what if it's Lido tonight? I have only one answer. If this market is always created by the word "just in case", I can't do anything. If I can't, I will give up the idea of bullish gold price at this stage and stop losing. But I will certainly find opportunities to try to be short in the future. It's a simple logic. I am seriously analyzing the market. Your market always gives me surprises and contingencies. What can I do?

Why do I say defeat magic with magic? Just look at the market.

This is the overall trend of the gold daily line, basically including the rising and falling of the current stage.

The first rise was also caused by the fall. Do you remember what it was for? It was the seething CPI in June, because many people believed that this data would fall back to a large extent. Whether it was due to the high base inflation value in June last year or according to the depressed economic data of the United States at that time, it could serve as a condition for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Therefore, after the CPI fell significantly, gold staged a wave of rebound.

However, the performance of the labor market beat this trend. The performance of both the wage market and the job market was very good. Suddenly, the market felt that its previous expectations were too radical and excessive, and began to fall back. The dollar began to rise from the bottom, resulting in the subsequent downward trend. Of course, the performance of the U.S. economic data in July was relatively good, The Federal Reserve started the talk of potential economic re acceleration, and the interest rate market turned from a turning point to a rising point, creating this swing market.

So the current wave, again, is due to the pessimistic expectations of the labor market. As for the primary rise in 1885, I will not comment more. It was driven by silver. During this period, the dollar has not yet turned down, but the market since 1915 is normal, so the current rise of $30 is basically driven by the expected position, Then we just need facts to verify whether these emotions are excessive or accurate. Today's PCE bulls certainly want to see unexpected benefits, but we just think that it can bounce back to suppress this expected position. Therefore, the approximate target of downward repatriation is around 1920.

Technically, in fact, this surge started ahead of schedule, because there was a goal of 1850 before, and your daily downward trend line is like this, so gold is now reaching the bottom ahead of schedule, changing the previous downward rhythm, but it is still in the position of 1885 decline. I will not want to look for pressure anymore, I tell you, The pressure level is endless, including support. How much money can you keep trying in the market with 100 times leverage?

The empty position in 1945 was still there yesterday, and this is the pressure area of gold now. Therefore, the main purpose of my next trading market is to see that the top of this wave of positions expected to rise is 45, and then to give up and press down, and then to see the break at 1900 after the non farm. It doesn't matter whether I'm dreaming or not. How I do it can't be controlled by others.

As for you who may also have short trades, you should handle your own exits when you fall back tonight according to your own situation. Don't let yourself fall into poverty and follow my ideas and trades blindly.

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