Shanhai Yangyang: All the rising space of gold has been realized, and the data influence will be seen in the market at the end of the week!

Shanhai Yangyang: All the rising space of gold has been realized, and the data influence will be seen in the market at the end of the week!

(Data picture)

New economic data shows that the US economy is cooling down, strengthening the expectation that the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate hikes in September. The US dollar is falling again, while gold continues to rise slowly and reach new highs under the bull trend. On August 31, the key data that investors need to pay attention to: China's official manufacturing PMI in August, Germany's actual monthly retail sales rate in July, Germany's actual annual retail sales rate in July, France's final annual GDP rate in the second quarter, Germany's quarterly adjusted unemployment rate in August, Germany's quarterly adjusted unemployment change in August, the euro zone's adjusted CPI annual rate in August - the initial value of the end of the quarter, the annual rate of the U.S. PCE price index in July, The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits in the week ended August 26.

The US dollar peaked and fell on Tuesday. Stimulated by the data, it fell further on Wednesday. At present, it has dropped to 102.8, which is also the key point that Shanhai stressed to predict. If it falls below 102.8, the US dollar will continue to fall in the future market. After a period of time, it can fall to 99.6, the previous low. If it does not fall below 102.8, the US dollar will continue to remain strong in the near future, There is still room for shock and rebound. Therefore, the data on Thursday and Friday are crucial to the judgment of the current dollar. Relatively speaking, the temporary cycle of gold is to consider whether to continue to rise unilaterally or go high to adjust shocks.

Everyone has his own value in life, and not necessarily similar to others. When you are not good enough on one hand, it does not mean that you are worse than others, because on the other hand, others may not be better than you. There is no standard answer to happiness, and happiness has more than one way. The day you like is the best day. The way you like is the best way to live. Don't ignore the treasure of the present, take the most solid step at the moment, and the future will be vast. Gold continued to rise strongly on Wednesday, reaching the highest point in 1948. 8, and the bulls reached the third target point of Shanhai, the 1948/1950 high point. Then, since the bullish start in 1887, this wave of gold has completely gone through the expectations of the mountains and seas. Next, Shanhai no longer emphasizes where gold will rise, but makes a good prediction and accumulation at the moment. Today Thursday, the market also has important data. The annual rate of PCE price index is concerned in the US market, and the initial application for unemployment benefits data of that week will have an impact on the view of the temporary dollar and gold.

Although this wave of bulls has achieved all the predictions of mountains and seas, it should be emphasized that gold still remains a bull trend, and do not easily guess the peak. The resumption of the August market can be summarized as follows: gold fell in the first ten days of August and rose in the last ten days of August. The strength of the rising wave, Shanhai, has been bullish all the way from 1887 to 1948. All the space and profits in the middle have been seized. Next, it depends on whether gold will continue to rise strongly or adjust to shocks at a high level. Of course, at present, it can be sure that 1950 is not a temporary peak. Therefore, Short term trading should remain much lower. Technically, the daily line cycle was at the 1948 high, almost touching the high point of the daily line on the Brin upper track. Theoretically, this point is the medium-term point of the rise, which should be based on the adjustment space, and this adjustment should be based on the actual adjustment strength. At present, the daily line is positive, standing firmly above the average. If the daily line closes negative on Thursday, then the adjustment space will continue to Friday, The space for falling back cannot be ignored. If the daily line continues to close positive and break the daily line, Bolin will be suppressed on the track, and the Bolin track will be opened. After that performance, gold must not be short, and there will be more room for rising in the future market. 1980 or even 2000 are not excessive. Therefore, today's gold trend and closing line changes are very important. Based on the uncertainty of the daily line, gold is in the trend of bulls at the moment. This cycle, even if it is rising in 1948, should patiently wait for it to fall back to the support point to go long, The unilateral moving average of the H4 cycle is supported near 1940, so you can rely on this point to trade long. If you go up, look at 1950 first, and if you go down, look at the impact of the US market data. Of course, if stimulated by the data, gold falls below 1940, and the daily line naturally ends negative, then you will see the size of the specific adjustment space.

Spot silver rose to 25 on Wednesday, realizing the ultimate goal of this wave of silver bullish from 22.4. Then, this wave of silver should not continue to look at the upper space. Of course, silver is still a bullish trend at present, and 25 is not necessarily the top. However, from the technical perspective, the daily line has closed negative at a high level, which may lead to a reversal of the downward trend in the near future. Therefore, even if it is bullish in the near future, it is not necessary to catch up with the bullish trend. In this cycle, it is better to wait and see if there is room for adjustment in the future market to continue the bullish rise. Combined with the market data on Thursday and Friday, there is great uncertainty and market changes, so we can be ready for the long and medium term vacancy at any time. Pay attention to the daily analysis of mountains and seas.

Futures:

1: Hujin 2310 Contract

The idea of this cycle of Shanghai Jincheng will remain unchanged. It is also emphasized that the cyclical rise is not over yet, but it is not advisable to pursue the rise at present. Therefore, for the time being, it is better to hold short positions in this cycle rather than pursue the rise trade, and do not short orders when there is no obvious top. On Wednesday, Shanghai Gold rose slightly, closing close close to 463, with a small increase of 1/2 piece of profit. Although there is room for slow growth, the space above is not necessarily large, and long trading may catch up with the ceiling. It is worth noting that the current price is close to the previous high of 436.68, and this price must have some reference value in the market. Many people are afraid of whether it can effectively break the position. In addition, there are many data on Thursday and Friday, and the market may change. Therefore, Shanghai Gold continues to maintain short positions in this cycle. When the peak is determined on Thursday and Friday or the effective decline is made, new transactions will be given.

2: Financing fund

The idea of Rongtongjin also needs to be highly consistent, continue to look at the rising space, but do not follow the rising trend. On Monday, there are also two pieces of strength, and on Tuesday, there are also two pieces of strength, from 459 to 461. On Wednesday, there are still two pieces of strength, from 461 to 463. Therefore, keep the same idea in the early stage. This week, we will not follow the rising trend, and short will not meet the conditions, To take advantage of the trend, you need to wait for the adjustment of Rongtong Gold or the test of the support point to fall back, and you may see the 468 high above. In the near future, there are a lot of market data on Thursday and Friday, and the market changes greatly, which may reach the top in the near future. After confirmation, Shanhai will give a specific trading plan.

3: BOC 2310 Contract

On Wednesday, the bullish market of Bank of Shanghai broke out again. At present, it rose to 6007 high, almost a new previous high of 5980. However, as can be seen from the intraday trading, the rally was not strong, and it fell quickly after reaching 6000, below the normal closing band of 5980. Therefore, Bank of Shanghai still maintained a strong bullish trend for the time being, but this cycle must not catch up, and the previous trading was much lower, The bullish market has stopped at 5980, and we will not emphasize how much space there is above. As for short selling, it is not clear that it has peaked yet. It is worth noting that there are many data on Thursday and Friday, which may change the temporary trend. Therefore, the Bank of Shanghai should also be ready to do mid - and long-term short selling at any time.

4: Fuel 2310 contract

The fuel fluctuated for three days. Although there was an obvious upward trend on Tuesday, it still did not reach Shanhai's target point of 3700. Therefore, after the US market continued to go higher on Wednesday, Shanhai suggested that more than 3530 orders in the previous layout had gained 100 points and were out of the market. At present, it closed at 3630. Short positions were waiting for Thursday. The market changed on Friday. First of all, the current trend of fuel oil is still bullish, but it is just a high and volatile trend under the bullish trend, with the interval low at 3500. Therefore, the idea of keeping the fuel oil bullish above 3500 remains unchanged. The short-term high can be seen as 3670, the medium-term high as 3770, and the big rise is not high. Therefore, do not trade at this price of fuel for the time being. Either wait for the support point to fall back and go long, or see whether it can break a new high. If not, go short again.

5: Soda Ash 2401 Contract

The recent fluctuations of soda ash are dealt with by shocks, which makes it difficult to choose between transactions. On Monday, it saw a high and then fell. On Tuesday, it rebounded after reaching the bottom. On Wednesday, it hit a high and then fluctuated slightly. The temporary closing was 1877. According to the intraday trend, it should be a high shock under the trend of bulls, but it is also difficult to see the rise. It is not possible to give a long price in the medium term. Therefore, it is recommended to temporarily short positions, The upper part goes up by 2020 to see whether it is broken. If it is not broken, consider shorting. At the lower part, see the support effect of the daily line barefoot support point 1760.

The EIA data of international crude oil on Wednesday had little impact. It rose slowly and rose normally. The high just hit the first target of mountain and sea bullish 82. At present, it closed at 81.6. It was obvious that crude oil remained bullish and fluctuated. Intraday trading still needed to fall back to much lower levels. It was powerless after falling back to 80.8 at midnight on Wednesday. Then, on Thursday, we would look at the support point of 80.8 and continue to focus on the high point of 82. On Thursday, If it rises sharply on Friday, it can be seen that the daily line is near the high point 84/84.5 of Brin upper orbit. It is expected that more companies will be located in Europe within the day, and the US market will go out of space.

Author/Shan Hai

(The above article was originally written by Shanhai, please indicate the source when reprinted. Shanhai's warm tip is that investment is risky, and you should be cautious when entering the market. The above only represents Shanhai's personal view, not as an operational basis, and you should bear the operational risk accordingly.)

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