There are still many risks in the macro environment of soybean oil. The tight supply pattern of corn market has improved

Text of research report

[Soybean oil]

Spot market: Rizhao Bangji, a first-class soybean oil, quoted 8900 yuan/ton (y01+490 conversion), 10 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day.

(Data pictures are for reference only)

Market analysis:. The current expectation difference affecting the macro level of the commodity market comes from the path and time of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift in the future. With the depth of global economic weakness and the quality of China's weak recovery, there are still many risks and game factors in the macro environment.

(2) In terms of international soybean (5170, -65.00, -1.24%), the weather in the main production areas in the Midwest of the United States is still dominated by high temperature, and the dry weather may weaken the soybean yield.

(3) Domestic soybean oil supply and demand: in September 2023, the arrival of soybeans to the port will be 7.021 million tons (8.49 million tons predicted last month, 6.774 million tons in the same period last year). The overall demand in the future will remain stable, or fluctuate slightly around seasonal factors. Trading tips: soybean oil 01 contract, short-term or platform arrangement.

[Corn (2667, -22.00, -0.82%)]

Spot information: the average price of corn nationwide is 2821 yuan/ton, and the average purchase price of new corn mainstream of key deep processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2720 yuan/ton; The average purchase price of new corn mainstream of key enterprises in North China Huang Huai River is 3000 yuan/ton; The closing price of Jinzhou Port (15% water/unit weight 680-720) is 2850-2870 yuan/ton; The transaction price of Shekou Port bulk grain corn is 2990 yuan/ton.

Market analysis: from the perspective of external market, the USDA's August supply and demand report reduced the per unit yield, but the overall balance sheet of supply and demand is still loose, and the damage of recent weather factors to the corn yield is weakened, and the American corn is weak; From the domestic perspective, in the short term, with the supplement of spring corn, imports and substitutes in the new season, the tight market supply pattern has improved, and the time for a large number of corn in the new season to come into the market is approaching, and the risk of high corn prices is also gathering; The overall carrying capacity of the downstream is limited. The substitution of wheat has reduced the demand for corn. The feed enterprises maintain a rigid demand for procurement, while the processing enterprises have low inventory, and there is a certain demand for replenishment in the later stage.

To sum up, supply and demand are still loose in the medium and long term, so we can focus on the trend downward trend after the rebound.

Operational suggestions: short-term corn range shocks, with a range of 2600-2750 yuan/ton, but the long-term bearish mentality remains unchanged, and traders can wait for the signal to arrange empty orders at every high.

[Shanghai Copper (68860, - 280.00, - 0.40%)]

Spot information: Shanghai 1 # electrolytic copper price 69830-69940, up 55, up 80 - up 140, import copper index 92.57, down 0.36

Market analysis: In the middle and late September, the window of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was again ushered in. With the interest rate level above 5%, the Federal Reserve has the possibility of suspending or raising interest rates for the last time when it reaches the upper limit of long-term economic growth. The risk of small and medium-sized banks and other financial systems is difficult to change for the time being, and the last critical point is ushered in (the rise of interest rate support assets is fundamental). This is a trend issue; On the other hand, domestic policies continue to increase, housing loans, urban village reconstruction, interest rate reduction, equity five arrows and other policies have been substantially opened, and strong expectations are expected to rise again in the future. Especially in the context of the alienation of internal and external inventory, domestic inventory continues to be in an extreme state, and spot goods are strong in the old, but overseas inventory continues to accumulate, and factors affecting copper prices are difficult to resonate, Price fluctuation is relatively bumpy; From the perspective of price trend, the real high point of copper price appeared around May of last year, and the high point on the right side of the name appeared around May of this year. Both sides have already appeared, and the copper price in the big C stage is still a step short (most other varieties may have gone through). I hope investors can grasp the difference between the trend market and the stage market.

Operational suggestions

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