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Intensive issuance of real estate policies is expected to result in greater price elasticity of rebar

2023-09-07 17:24:27    Source: Sina Finance


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Text of research report

Market trends: Tangshan iron and steel enterprises have received instructions on environmental protection, production limitation and emission reduction. Since September 4, the sinter production of the long process steel plant has been limited by 20% - 30% to the end of the month, and the blast furnace has not been affected temporarily. In August, the issuance of local government bonds reached the peak of the year.

According to the public bond issuance data, in August 2023, the national local government bond issuance scale is about 1.3 trillion yuan; In the first eight months, the issuance of local government bonds nationwide was about 6.3 trillion yuan, a record high in the same period. The blast furnace maintenance plan announced by Laigang and Zhongtian in the early stage was cancelled after verification.

Since the transaction on September 7, the commission for rebar (3793, -18.00, -0.47%) futures RB2401 contract transaction has been adjusted to one ten thousandth of the transaction amount, and the commission for intra day closing of current positions has been adjusted to one ten thousandth of the transaction amount.

Logic: The reality of steel has not improved significantly, and the demand recovery is not obvious. Recently, it has been repeated, and the stock removal has slowed down. The black industry chain has low inventory, and the price elasticity is large due to emotional policies. The demand for molten iron at the raw material end remains high, driving the price of raw materials up; Although the terminal demand side is general, the intensive introduction of policies, especially the adjustment of housing purchase policies and loan interest rates, has boosted the market mentality; In addition, the Iron and Steel Association also needs to pay attention to the problem of level control. On the whole, black profits are frequent, and steel prices are expected to remain strong. Pay attention to the demand recovery in the later period.

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