Will trams be the future when the new energy market in Europe and the United States fades and Apple exits?

Ford and General Motors have formulated electric vehicle development plans, but they have encountered difficulties and losses in the implementation process; Mercedes Benz will no longer adhere to the strategic layout of completely transitioning to electric vehicle sales in its main markets before 2030; Apple stopped the "Titan" car building plan; Tesla also said that the expansion rate this year will significantly slow down.

Ford, General Motors and Stelantis, the three major automobile manufacturing giants in the United States, are facing the challenge of electric vehicle transformation, and they have failed to reach their sales targets. At the same time, a batch of new cheap foreign electric vehicles began to pour into the global market.

For example, BYD in China is particularly focused on producing plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Last year, they sold 3 million electric vehicles, surpassing all their competitors. At present, their production capacity in China is enough to produce 4 million vehicles a year. BYD is planning to set up factories in Brazil, Thailand, Hungary and Uzbekistan, and may set up factories in Indonesia and Mexico in the near future.

Although Ford and General Motors have formulated electric vehicle development plans, they have encountered difficulties and losses in the implementation process. Their balance sheets appear stable on the surface, but there is actually a structural weakness. Billions of dollars of profits mainly depend on the sales of pickups SUVs and crossover vehicles. If American interest in trucks and SUVs wanes, Ford and General Motors will face real trouble.

Since the 1970s, Japanese, Korean and European automobile manufacturers have entered the U.S. market with higher fuel efficiency and better quality products, gradually seizing market share, resulting in the disadvantage of American local automobile manufacturers in market competition and sales decline.

Will this happen again? The future situation may be similar to the mobile phone market, leaving only Apple, and the electric vehicle field may only have Tesla.

The European Union is currently considering a potential policy adjustment, which may delay the original plan to ban the sale of new fuel vehicles across the Union from 2035.

At the same time, at Mercedes Benz's annual global shareholders' meeting, the company's CEO Ola Conlinson announced a major strategic update. In view of the fact that the development speed of the electric vehicle market has not been popularized as expected, Mercedes Benz has decided to make adaptive amendments to its previously set goals and no longer adhere to the strategic layout of completely transitioning to electric vehicle sales in its main markets before 2030.

The latest data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association shows that December 2023 marks the first reversal of the continuous growth of new car sales in Europe after 17 months, and the weak demand for electric vehicles is the key to this downward trend drive factor. In the same month, the overall new car sales in Europe decreased by 3.8% compared with the same period last year.

Notably, in the German market, the core area of the European automobile industry, the sales of pure electric vehicles dropped by nearly half year-on-year in the month. This sharp drop in the German electric vehicle market is directly related to an important policy change: since the beginning of the 2024 New Year, namely January 1, the German government has completely terminated the "environmental bonus" purchase subsidy plan for many years, and no longer provides financial support for electric vehicles.

In 2023, Mercedes Benz's electric vehicles will only account for 11% of the total sales. If hybrid vehicles are also taken into account, this proportion will rise to 19%, but it is still far below the threshold of full electrification.

However, Mercedes Benz has slowed down the layout of new energy vehicles, which is not the abandonment claimed by many media.

In 2023, the cumulative sales volume of Mercedes Benz passenger cars and light commercial vehicles will be about 2.492 million, up 1.5% year on year; The sales volume of pure electric vehicles was about 240000, up 61% year on year; The sales volume of pure electric light commercial vehicles was about 23000, up 51% year on year.

In the field of intelligence, Mercedes Benz has become a "dual license" car enterprise of L3 conditional automatic driving and L4 automatic driverless parking. Just last December, Mercedes Benz also obtained the road test license for Beijing conditional autonomous driving (L3) expressway in China.

In China, BMW Brilliance and Mercedes Benz (China) signed a cooperation agreement. The two sides will establish a joint venture in China with a 50:50 share ratio to jointly operate the super charging network.

In addition, Volkswagen acquired 4.99% shares of Xiaopeng Auto and reached a strategic technical cooperation framework agreement. Xiaopeng Automobile and Volkswagen also concluded a joint procurement plan for the common parts of their models and platforms. By integrating the scale advantages of both sides and relying on the world-class Volkswagen Group

The joint procurement plan aims to reduce the platform cost, give play to the synergy of strategic cooperation, and enhance the product strength of the B-class pure electric vehicle jointly developed by both parties.

It can be seen that Europe still regards electric vehicles as a strategic future, and has slowed down the pace of steady progress.

With the transformation of fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, the number of parts required for vehicles has decreased from about 30000 to about 10000. This change has brought new opportunities to the automotive industry, and a number of emerging automotive brands have begun to emerge and show strong development potential. Suppliers have adjusted their strategies, transformed and upgraded. At the same time, a number of new generation suppliers have also taken the opportunity to rise. Leading enterprises from other industries have also begun to cross the border into the field of auto parts manufacturing. In 2024, the pattern of the automobile industry is bound to be reshaped.

Whenever an emerging industry shows a strong momentum of development, many enterprises will rush in and participate in competition. After a period of intense market competition, mergers and reorganization, and the bankruptcy and withdrawal of some enterprises, the number of enterprises will gradually decrease, and eventually reach a relatively stable market share distribution, and the entire industry will also transition to a more healthy and sustainable development state.

In 2024 and even in the future, the market of electric vehicles will inevitably continue to grow. Who else will disappear? Who else wants to rise?