Recently, according to Japanese media reports, US government officials revealed that the United States is coordinating with Britain and Australia to invite Japan to participate in military and technical cooperation under the cooperation framework of the "Orcus" alliance. If agreed by Britain and Australia, the United States may issue an official invitation during the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Takeo Kishida to the United States in April.

Continuous release pull signal

In September 2021, the United States, Britain and Australia signed a trilateral agreement to establish the "Okus" alliance cooperation framework, which aims to promote Australia's military development through the so-called "two pillars". Among them, the "first pillar" is the deployment of US nuclear submarines in Australia and the transition to the joint development and construction of the next generation of nuclear submarines by the three countries, which is expected to be completed in 2055 at a cost of 368 billion Australian dollars (about 242.5 billion US dollars); The "second pillar" is to jointly develop advanced technology projects, accelerate the coordinated development of key technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, unmanned aerial vehicles and hypersonic, and promote their transformation into combat effectiveness. The "Orcus" alliance originated from helping Australia build nuclear submarines, but with the continuous expansion of the "second pillar", the United States, Britain and Australia have launched a number of substantive cooperation projects in artificial intelligence, unmanned aerial vehicles and other fields, and there is even a trend to expand technology research and development to weapons joint testing, intelligence data sharing and other fields.

It is reported that in order to enable Australia to obtain nuclear submarines as scheduled, the nuclear submarines of the United States and Britain will be deployed near the Sterling Naval Base in Australia in the near future. At the same time, the United States, Britain and Australia decided to hold a joint maritime UAV exercise this year to enhance the ability to "jointly operate unmanned maritime systems and share and process maritime data".

It is reported that since the establishment of the alliance, the United States has always been open to finding new partners, but Australia is not in favour of recruiting new members. As the main beneficiary of the framework, it is worried that the accession of new members will delay the scheduled development plan. However, Australia's attitude has changed recently. Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Marcus recently said that he expected Japan to participate in the development of hypersonic weapons and artificial intelligence and other technologies under the cooperation framework of the "Orcus" alliance.

Wanted to welcome back or join the gang

The Japanese government has not yet made a clear response on whether to accept the invitation. There are opinions within the Japanese government that Japan has established bilateral cooperation mechanisms with the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. Technical cooperation can be achieved bilaterally. Whether joining the "Orcus" alliance will produce better results is unknown. Moreover, Japan is restricted by the Peace Constitution, so it is difficult to participate in the nuclear submarine technology project in a short time. Even if Japan succeeds in joining the alliance, it is also difficult to become a "real member" of the alliance.

According to the analysis, in recent years, Japan has been forming cliques for regional security strategic competition, making arrangements to get rid of the constraints of post-war order, and taking a cautious stance on joining the "Orcus" alliance, which is just a trick of playing hard to get.

The national security strategy issued by the Japanese government in 2022 proposes that strengthening the military alliance with the United States and strengthening military interaction with the so-called "like-minded countries" will be the main path to enhance Japan's military capabilities. Since then, Japan has continuously increased the frequency of joint military exercises with the United States, and extensively sought cooperation within the United States ally system to expand the "circle of friends". At the same time, Japan has deeply promoted military and technical cooperation with the United Kingdom and Australia. The three countries of Japan, Britain and Italy have launched a joint research and development project for the next generation of fighter aircraft. Japan and Australia have carried out joint training for many times under the framework of the Reciprocal Access Agreement, and even discussed the feasibility of launching Japanese made medium range missiles in Australia. In addition, when visiting Australia in 2023, Taro Aso, Vice President of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party, expressed his hope that Japan would join the "Okus" alliance.

Whether Japan succeeds in joining the alliance or not, the expansion of the "Okus" alliance sends a dangerous signal, which will have a negative impact on regional peace and stability, and deserves attention and vigilance. (Zige)

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