● Our reporter Ma Shuang
In May, the price of feed raw materials has changed from the decline since April and ushered in a continuous rise. Analysts said that with the recent rise in soybean meal and corn prices, the later feed prices are still facing the possibility of passive increase. However, at present, the pig production efficiency of large groups and large-scale farms has significantly improved. Even if the feed price has risen, it can also be compensated by adjusting the selling rhythm, so the impact on pig production costs is limited.
The price of raw materials rebounded significantly
After the May Day holiday, the feed raw material market has changed significantly. Wind data shows that on May 21, the spot price of Dalian soybean meal reported 3550 yuan/ton, 190 yuan/ton higher than that on April 29, with a cumulative increase of 5.65%; On May 21, the ex warehouse price of corn (national standard third grade) in Harbin was 2230 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the end of April.
"The recent rise in the price of domestic soybean meal is mainly driven by the strengthening of the price of American soybean futures in the external market." Bi Hui, a senior agricultural product researcher at Baocheng Futures, said that the price of American soybean futures is easy to rise in the short term but difficult to fall, which will boost the domestic soybean market. However, supported by the high cost of imported soybeans, the downstream demand for replenishment, and the fast pace of oil factory picking up, the overall domestic soybean price continues to run strongly, which will support the price of soybean meal from the cost side.
As for corn, Bi Hui said that at present, the northern food source has been transferred to grain traders, and the northeast deep processing enterprises have begun to purchase dry food. Driven by the rising price of the northern corn market port, the price of corn in coastal ports has become stronger.
Generally speaking, the feed cost accounts for 60% - 80% of the pig breeding cost, so it plays an important role in the production and operation of breeding enterprises.
Previously, feed prices continued to decline. Wind data shows that the spot price of Dalian soybean meal was reported at 3760 yuan/ton on March 22, and then fell in shock. On April 12, it was reported at 3320 yuan/ton; Relatively speaking, the overall ex warehouse price of corn (national standard third grade) in Harbin has not changed much.
From the perspective of pig raising cost, the reduction of feed cost also helped many head pig enterprises achieve cost reduction in April. For example, Muyuan Shares said that the total cost of pig breeding of the company in April this year was 14.8 yuan/kg, 0.3 yuan/kg less than that in March. The feed cost of the company decreased and the production performance improved. Wen's shares recently said in an investigation by the agency that thanks to the significant effect of disease prevention and control and the decline in the price of feed raw materials, the company's pig raising cost control is relatively ideal. In April, the company's comprehensive cost of pig breeding dropped to about 14.4 yuan/kg, a month on month decrease of 0.4 yuan/kg.
Fan Guohe, an analyst of Zhongrong Huixin Futures, said that the number of breeding sows and commercial pigs on hand had declined recently, and the feed cost was also at the bottom of the range, supporting the profit and cost of pig breeding.
There is room for rising feed prices
Looking forward to the future, Bi Hui believes that in terms of soybean meal, the short-term cost of imported soybean will support the price of soybean meal. Although the stock of feed enterprises has rebounded, it is still at a low level as a whole. In the later stage, it will focus on testing the ability of market demand to undertake the supply increment. Although the short-term soybean meal price will inevitably fluctuate under the influence of the external market, the overall strong trend will not change.
In terms of corn, with the transfer of northern food sources to grain traders, the phased grain sales rhythm dominates the domestic corn price, and focuses on the depopulation of northern and southern port stocks. In addition, the market has a bullish expectation for the price of live pigs in the second half of this year, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has significantly improved. From the perspective of feed demand, it supports the price of corn, which has become the basis for the gradual strengthening of corn prices.
From the perspective of feed cost, with the recent increase of soybean meal and corn prices, the later feed prices will still face the possibility of passive increase.
"At this stage, even if the feed price increases passively in the later stage, the impact on pig raising costs will be relatively limited." Bi Hui explained that, because the pig production efficiency of current large groups and large-scale farms has significantly improved, even if the feed price rises, it can be compensated by adjusting the selling rhythm. In addition, before the Dragon Boat Festival, the pig market may usher in a small peak. In the context of rising pig prices, the income growth brought by increased pig sales will offset the adverse impact of rising feed prices, and will also help to continue to improve the efficiency of pig breeding.
