With the implementation of favorable policies for real estate in various regions, A-share real estate sector has soared for several days. Wind data shows that since April 25, the Wind Real Estate Index has risen 26.69% in 15 trading days, and on May 17 alone, it rose as high as 7.01%. During this period, many stocks have gained gratifying momentum. I love my family, New Town Holdings and China Merchants Shekou have increased by 104.46%, 44.54% and 41.79% respectively.
According to the analysis of insiders, the market still has expectations for further deregulation and purchase restriction in the first tier cities, which may play a supporting role in the subsequent market. If more specific rules of "digesting the stock of real estate" are issued in the future, it may become the anchor of this round of plate recovery.
Real estate demand side is expected to improve
The real estate industry has again attracted investors' attention by issuing documents from multiple departments in combination with the new policies of the real estate market in multiple places. A number of securities traders interviewed by reporters predicted that the gradual improvement of market confidence will lead to stable sales, and the land market will usher in the adjustment of supply scale, pace, direction, etc. in many places.
"Hangzhou has liberalized the purchase restriction policy, and the purchase of a house can be settled, which helps stimulate more potential purchase demand and maintain the stability of the real estate market." Hu Shaohua, deputy director of Donghai Securities Research Institute, took Hangzhou's new property market policy as an example to analyze that the optimization of the restrictive policies in the property market has positive significance for the improvement of market sentiment, and is expected to increase the market heat in the short term, The high base effect over the same period last year has gradually subsided, and the demand for real estate is expected to improve.
"From the perspective of the sales market, the recent intensive implementation of policies will help to repair market expectations and drive market transaction activity. From the perspective of land market, referring to the disclosed 2024 land supply plan, the supply scale of commercial residential land in some cities has been reduced. It is expected that under the new requirements of the Ministry of Natural Resources, the scale, pace and direction of land transfer in some cities will be adjusted. " Xie Haoyu, chief analyst of the real estate industry of Guotai Junan Securities, said.
He Miannan, chief analyst of the real estate industry of Everbright Securities, analyzed that from the supply side, the regulation stressed that the financial industry was duty bound to support real estate financing, supported real estate financing through credit, bonds, equity, etc., stressed that financing of real estate enterprises with different ownership was "treated equally", accelerated the promotion of urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, and improved the mortgage rate and use of operational property loans, The financing cash flow of high-quality real estate enterprises is expected to increase; From the demand side, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development proposed that the city should be given full control autonomy, and the local government should increase the support for housing purchase by "implementing policies based on the city"; With the further improvement of the autonomy of local governments in regulating the property market, the urban differentiation and regional differentiation of the property market will further intensify in 2024.
Focus on the three main lines
The "combination fist" of major favorable policies on the demand side and the supply side is conducive to the recovery of real estate market sales and the rebuilding of confidence, and is also conducive to accelerating the construction of a new model of real estate development.
Referring to the follow-up investment opportunities in the real estate sector, He Miannan suggested paying attention to three main lines: first, stable leading real estate enterprises with comprehensive development capacity in the area, opportunities to participate in the renewal of megacities, and market share is expected to increase; Second, with the active promotion of consumer commercial public offering REITs, the real estate enterprises with diversified tracks, rich stock asset resources and core competitiveness in the commercial real estate track will be released first; Third, China's industrial parks have entered the period of "stock reform+innovative development", and are gradually moving towards professional operation and development. Public REITs are conducive to the revaluation of industrial park assets, and the investment direction of industrial parks should be emphasized.
You Zipei, chief analyst of the real estate industry of Zhongtai Securities, said that various data of the real estate industry from January to April were still at a low level. With the setting of the "de stocking" policy and the optimization and adjustment of the core housing policy, the future industry data is expected to gradually stabilize with the continuous introduction of the policy. Driven by the relaxation of the real estate policy in core cities and the "three major projects", It is suggested to focus on the real estate enterprises with stable performance and high safety in the first and second tier cities.
