On May 15, the three major indexes of A-share market fell in shock. In the case of the suspension of transactions by northbound funds due to the Hong Kong Buddha's birthday holiday, the transaction volume of A-share was significantly reduced. The transaction volume of A-share was less than 770 billion yuan, a new low since February 1. More than 1300 stocks in the whole A-share market rose, while real estate, building materials, coal and other sectors rose against the trend, and capital sentiment tended to be cautious. On the 15th, the net outflow of major funds from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 24 billion yuan.
Analysts believe that the rising rhythm of the short-term market may slow down in the future. In the second quarter, A-shares may be in the stage of preparation, and the market rotation of corresponding plates will continue.
Real estate sector rose against the trend
On May 15, the three major indexes of A-share market fell in shock. As of the closing, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and GEM Index fell 0.82%, 0.88% and 0.90% respectively, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index closed at 3119.90 points, covering the gap formed by the jump of May 6. Due to the suspension of trading in the northbound capital during the Buddha's Day holiday in Hong Kong, the market transaction volume shrank significantly, and the turnover of A-shares was less than 770 billion yuan, a new low since February 1. Among them, the turnover of Shanghai Stock Exchange was 333.06 billion yuan and that of Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 428.066 billion yuan. On the 15th, the number of stocks rising in the A-share market was 1325, the number of stocks with trading limit exceeded 60, and the number of stocks falling was 3881. Zhengdan shares rose by a limit of 20%. From the low point on February 8, Zhengdan shares rose by 875.27% in total.
From the perspective of the board, the real estate sector bucked the trend, and the concept sectors such as brokerage, CRO and green power were significantly adjusted. Only real estate, building materials, coal and light industry manufacturing industries among the Shenyi class industries rose, with the growth rates of 2.03%, 1.26%, 0.34% and 0.25% respectively; Among the industry sectors that fell, the decline of non bank finance, public utilities, and pharmaceutical and biological industries was the largest, falling 2.16%, 1.83%, and 1.54% respectively.
In the real estate industry, Everbright Jiabao, Tiandiyuan and Yunnan Urban Investment rose by more than 7%, Cinda Real Estate rose by 7%, Hainan Expressway, Tefa Service and Binjiang Group rose by more than 5%. Several stocks in the real estate sector have a common feature, and the main line has risen in the near future. On the news side, Hangzhou Lin'an District Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau recently announced that the People's Government of Lin'an District has decided to purchase a batch of commercial housing within Lin'an District as public rental housing after study. The announcement shows that the area of the purchased houses should not exceed 10000 square meters in principle, and the final purchase area of the existing houses or the houses that meet the delivery conditions within one year should be subject to the Specific Implementation Plan on Purchasing Commercial Houses for Public Rental Housing reviewed and approved by the district government.
In the non bank financial industry that led the decline, the resumed trading of Guolian Securities was up and down, most other securities companies fell, Zheshang Securities was down and down, Guosheng Financial Holding and Pacific Securities fell more than 8%, Founder Securities fell more than 7%, and Huachuang Yunxin fell more than 6%.
As for the reasons for the A-share market adjustment on the 15th, Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin Wealth Investment Fund, said that the market fell back on the 15th, and the trading volume continued to decrease, showing a periodic peak. In the case of insufficient motivation to do more, the market temporarily trimmed in line with the law of market operation.
The net outflow of main funds exceeded 24 billion yuan
On the capital side, under the adjustment of market shrinkage, the capital sentiment tends to be cautious. Wind data shows that on the 15th, the net outflow of main funds from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 24.674 billion yuan, of which 1832 stocks had a net inflow of main funds, 3263 stocks had a net outflow of main funds, and the net outflow of main funds from Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 sectors was 8.706 billion yuan.
In terms of industry sector, only the real estate industry saw a major net inflow of 1.552 billion yuan on the 15th among the Shenyi class industries. Among the 30 industries with net outflows of major funds, the net outflows of major funds in the non bank finance, medicine and biology, and electric power equipment industries ranked first, with net outflows of 4.444 billion yuan, 3.671 billion yuan, and 2.629 billion yuan, respectively.
In terms of individual shares, Tongfu Microelectronics, Vanke A, Industrial Fulian, Shanggong Shenbei, and Xinghu Technology were among the top net inflows of main funds, with 829 million yuan, 578 million yuan, 243 million yuan, 175 million yuan, and 153 million yuan respectively. WuXi AppTec, Zhejiang Merchants Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Chang'an Automobile and Pacific Ocean ranked first in terms of net outflows of main funds, with net outflows of 659 million yuan, 625 million yuan, 521 million yuan, 519 million yuan and 492 million yuan respectively.
In addition, in the real estate industry, with the exception of Vanke A, the net inflow of main funds of Huafa, I Love My Home, Jindi Group and Hainan Expressway ranked first, with 120 million yuan, 120 million yuan, 113 million yuan and 77 million yuan respectively.
For the real estate sector, Guosen Securities believes that at the current time point, the real estate demand side policy continues to be liberalized, and so far only six major cities have not fully opened purchase restrictions. Fundamentally, although the current sales of new houses and second-hand houses have not recovered significantly, they have not continued to deteriorate. Policy support and fundamental stability, coupled with low valuations and positions in the real estate sector, make real estate stocks have game value.
Focus on two types of stocks
Wind data shows that as of May 15, the rolling P/E ratio of Vandequan A was 17.15 times, and the rolling P/E ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 12.07 times. The overall valuation is at a historical low level.
As for the A-share market, Wang Yi, chief strategist of Huatai Securities, said that the market may enter a period of lull at the current position because the rebound may be supported by policy expectations with physical differences, economic data and marginal incremental funds to be relayed. The market may break through key points or require policies (sustainability and intensity) and endogenous momentum (profitability elasticity or industrial cycle) Two pronged approach, more incremental funds will come naturally. The market downside risk has weakened with the release of capital risk and the landing of the first quarter report. However, considering the weak financial data or the disturbance to the repair of risk appetite, and the policy expectation to be catalyzed, the market may enter a lull from the rebound, and the corresponding sector rotation will continue.
"With the rise of this round of market, the current market has gradually accumulated a certain pressure on profit taking, and the pace of short-term market rise may slow down in the future." Wu Xinkun, chief analyst of Haitong Securities Strategy, believes that A-shares may be in the build-up stage in the second quarter, short-term white horses are stable and more stable, and the medium-term main line focuses on China's advantageous manufacturing and hard technology.
Zhang Xia, chief strategic analyst of China Merchants Securities, said that under the background of a typical asset shortage, the growth rate of social financing increment is relatively low, and the interest rate center is relatively low, the two types of A shares are expected to provide relatively stable returns for investment. The first is the leading enterprises with excellent performance in various industries; The second category is industries with low credit relevance (such as export chain, consumption with low real estate relevance, science and technology medicine and other fields).
