Our reporter Wang Ning
The containerization index (European line) futures continued to rise. In the past two days, the highest point of 2406 main contracts exceeded 4000 points. Since February this year, the long positions of the top 20 main seats have increased 1.2 times, and the futures prices of the main contracts have increased by 188%.
Many analysts said to reporters that the strength of the container shipping index (European route) futures since February is mainly due to the increase in the transportation costs of the liner companies. Among them, geographical risks have forced the routes between China and Europe to bypass the normalization and passively raised freight prices. From the perspective of relevant shipping enterprises, the consolidation market is currently entering the supply and demand mismatch period. In view of the upcoming peak consumption season in June, relevant enterprises should actively use derivatives for risk management.
Break 4000 points to a new record
The subject matter of the contract of the container freight index (European route) futures is the Shanghai export container settlement freight index (European route). The freight information required for the compilation of the index is collected from the member companies of the European and American route subcommittee of the China Export Container Freight Index Editorial Board. As of August 2023, the member companies are composed of 15 units. Among them, 14 units (10 liner companies and 4 freight forwarders) submitted European line settlement freight rate data to Shanghai Airlines Exchange. International container transportation is a kind of transportation mode that takes containers as the medium, ships on a fixed route according to the published schedule, attaches to a fixed port, frequently carries goods, and transports the goods delivered by the shipper from a place in one country to a place in another country. Therefore, the freight index (European line) futures can basically reflect the supply and demand of major containers from Shanghai to Europe.
Since February this year, the main contract 2406 of the container transport index (European line) futures has gradually climbed from 1400 points, and so far, it has remained at 4000 points; On May 13 and 14, the main contract set a historical high of 4034. According to the highest and lowest point during the period, the 2406 contract has increased by 188% since February.
At the same time, the position of institutional seats has also changed greatly. According to the official website of Shanghai Futures Exchange, the long position of the top 20 main seats of 2406 contracts was only 7273 at the beginning of February, which had increased to 15750 by 1.2 times as of May 14.
In the view of many analysts, the continuous strengthening of the main contract is mainly due to the increase in the price of the liner companies, which is caused by a variety of factors. Huang Tianchang, customer manager of Zhongyan Futures Market Department, told reporters that the increase of liner companies has brought strong support to the freight index futures. From the supply side, the geopolitical risk makes the route between China and Europe detour normalization, which reduces the turnover speed of transport capacity, reduces the level of transport capacity, and passively raises the freight price; From the demand side, the current consolidation market has a good demand support. China's foreign trade export volume continued to grow during the year, and the rising demand for long-term freight transport led to a shortage of spot shipping space in the short term.
Gao Mingyu, a researcher of SDIC Essence Futures, believes that in late April, multiple rounds of freight price increases of liner companies made futures prices rise at the same time, but from the perspective of the spot market, the main reason for the increase is the short-term mismatch between supply and demand, for example, the tight supply of transport capacity caused the shortage of containers in several ports to varying degrees. It can be seen that the supply and demand fundamentals of the spot market have been clearly reflected in the futures market.
Rational use of financial derivatives
At this stage, the container transport index futures maintain a high consolidation, and the main 2406 contracts are long and short around 4000 points. Analysts said that based on the expectation of the peak season in June, the futures price may maintain an upward trend.
"Since June to September is the peak season of the centralized transportation market, it is expected that the demand for cargo volume of China and Europe will be good again, and the freight rate is likely to rise, which will still support the rise of future prices." Huang Tianchang said, at the same time, the number of long-term cargo continued to squeeze the space, and the overall space remained tight, and the peak season of liner companies further increased or a high probability event. "A large number of import and export enterprises in China should actively participate in the derivatives market, make rational use of financial derivatives, hedge, and hedge freight risk."
Gao Mingyu also believes that the current supply of transport capacity continues to be tight. He said that the liner companies will probably raise the freight rate in June, which is expected to drive a new round of rising market. For the relevant shipping companies, the centralized transportation market will fall into the supply and demand mismatch pattern again. The entity enterprises can hedge the corresponding futures contracts in the scheduled shipment month according to the production and marketing rhythm, so as to avoid the rise of costs caused by freight price fluctuations.
It is worth mentioning that, as of May 14, the long position of seats of many institutions still showed a trend of overweight. The data shows that Yide Futures, Shenwan Futures and Hongyuan Futures have increased their positions to varying degrees; However, including Guotai Jun'an, Haitong Futures, Meierya Futures, etc., reduced their positions.
