The bond market fluctuated sharply in the last few trading days of April, "hurting" bank financial investors.
"Most of the low-risk bank financial products purchased and the assets allocated are deposits and bonds. Recently, the bond market has been recalled, and the financial returns have also fallen, and the daily returns of the two products on hand for nearly a week are basically negative." The return of negative daily returns makes investors worry about whether bank financial management is still worth investing in under the background of the bond market recall?
Xiao Wu is the epitome of many bank financial investors at present. In fact, investors' concerns are not unreasonable. As an important investment target of bank financial products, the fluctuation of bond assets will undoubtedly affect the income of bank financial products.
However, many insiders said in an interview that this round of bond market adjustment is in line with expectations and is not expected to repeat the phenomenon of "breaking the net tide" in 2022. The reason is that the main position of financial products is short and medium end bond assets. With the addition of short-term characteristics and stable valuation assets, the overall fluctuation range of product net value is controllable. In addition, the market learning effect is obvious, the industry's asset resilience has improved, and the experience and ability to deal with the debt market adjustment are more sufficient.
The bond market fluctuates
"A few trading days before the May Day holiday, the bond market experienced a sharp adjustment. The sharp drop seems to be caused by the concentration of earnings after the yield continued to hit a new low. There are many reasons behind it," said Yin Ruizhe, chief fixed income analyst of SDIC Securities.
The fluctuation of bond market affects the nerves of bank financial investors. "Since the end of April, the net value of the bank's financial products has been falling. During the May Day holiday, when checking the earnings, it was found that three of the seven days since April 24 had suffered losses in a single day, which was the first time since the beginning of the year." Ms. Zhang, an investor, said that she bought a medium and low risk financial product, and the change in net value caused her concern.
Even Xiao Lin, who bought a bank's live money wealth management product, said: "In recent days, it has been zero income. After reading the product description, all the funds are invested in bank deposits, bond repurchases, interbank deposit receipts, bonds, etc. Only to comfort himself that the debt base has plummeted, and it would be good if my product net value is not green."
Investors' concerns are not unreasonable. "Since 2024, as the supervision of corporate deposit business has become stricter, the investment mode of some channel deposits in financial management may be restricted, and the newly increased scale has returned to the bond market investment." Xiao Jinchuan, co chief macro analyst of West China Securities, said.
"Bond assets are important investment targets of bank financial products, accounting for a large proportion in asset allocation of financial products. The fluctuation of bond asset returns has a greater impact on the net value of financial products." Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union, told China Securities News.
In 2022, the bank wealth management, which has always been known for its soundness, suffered a sharp retreat, because the sharp fluctuations in the bond market triggered a rapid decline in the net value of bank wealth management products with bonds as the main asset allocation, and some products fell below the net value of 1 yuan.
Adjustment is not unexpected
In response to the question of whether this round of bond market adjustment will once again trigger the "net breaking tide" of bank financing, the reporter of China Securities Journal interviewed many people in the industry, and got the reply that "the bond market adjustment meets expectations, is expected to have limited impact on financial products, and the industry scale is still net inflow."
"It's normal for a correction to rise too fast." Sun Pujie (a pseudonym), general manager of the research department of a city commercial bank's wealth management company, told reporters that this round of bond market adjustment is expected to have little impact on bank wealth management. After the impact of 2022, the asset resilience of the wealth management industry has improved a lot. In addition, at present, the fluctuation range of interest rate bonds is greater than that of credit bonds, while bank financing mainly holds credit bonds.
When analyzing this round of bond market fluctuations, a person from a state-owned bank's wealth management company mentioned to the reporter: "Interest rate debt fluctuates greatly, especially the pressure of long-term adjustment is great. We observed in this round of bond market adjustment that, first, the decline of wealth management products with short-term assets as the main position is relatively controllable at present. From the information of peers, we have not seen large-scale redemption. Second, the amount of funds in hand of institutions is still large, institutions have strong motivation to add positions, and emotional recovery is fast. "
In addition to the position structure, industry insiders told reporters that the improvement of anti volatility ability is also an important reason why bank financing is relatively less affected in this round of adjustment. After several rounds of bond market adjustment in the early stage, the industry's general liquidity reserves are more abundant, and the experience of dealing with bond market adjustment is more abundant.
"The market has a learning effect, and the losses suffered by the end of 2022 will not be repeated. Now the wealth management company has made a large-scale transformation to low wave. Institutions have made efforts in product positioning, strategy formulation, and asset layout, so their ability to resist fluctuations has been improved." Another person from the urban commercial bank wealth management company told reporters.
Zhang Yu (not his real name), the deputy general manager of the research department of a city commercial bank's wealth management company, said: "The previous net breaking trend reflects that the wealth management market has been in the bull market stage of bonds for a long time since the net worth transformation, and the preparation for market adjustment is insufficient. However, after the last adjustment, it has already had a relatively mature plan and experience, in particular, it has reestablished the position of stable income and reserved assets and strategies of stable income. "
The main logic of bond market remains unchanged
Ren Tao, a distinguished researcher of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, told the reporter that the impact of the bond market callback on financing funds should be seen differently. Generally speaking, financial fund allocation bonds have relatively strict requirements on duration, relatively restrained, and the impact of long-term debt adjustment is relatively limited.
"However, for the financial funds that have intervened in the long-term debt market through leverage and other means in the past period in order to win profits, they may face certain challenges in the near future, and the pressure of net worth withdrawal will be relatively large. Considering that the central bank has repeatedly warned about the risk of over allocation of long-term debt market, it is suggested that financial funds should pay more attention to the control of liquidity risk and leverage duration in the allocation of bonds, and adjust positions to avoid market adjustment risk. " Ren Tao said.
Looking ahead to the future, the above-mentioned state-owned bank wealth management companies said that the slope of economic recovery was moderate, the capital level had not changed significantly in the short term, the "asset shortage" pattern of the bond market had not been broken, and the mismatch between supply and demand of bonds with small supply and large capital demand still existed. At the same time, the mainstream institutions' perception of this debt market adjustment is mainly news driven emotional overshoot, and the main line logic has not been materially reversed.
"Objectively, the market interest rate is going down, and the interest rate cut is still expected. It is difficult to make a higher rate of return in the current market environment." Industry insiders said that the current benchmark reduction of financial product performance is more rational adjustment based on objective market reasons.
In the longer term, it is the correct solution for bank financing companies to catch the market situation in time and improve the product yield. Pratt&Whitney Standard said that in the context of "asset shortage", institutions need to carry out more product research and development, and control portfolio fluctuations and net worth reversals through asset diversification. It is necessary for institutions to improve their ability to control and analyze the macro-economy, and improve their ability to manage the risk of multiple assets.
"During the period of bond market adjustment, if the yield can be kept stable, the wealth management company can bring stable happiness to investors," said Sun Pujie.
"Short term fluctuation is the normal performance of the market operation, especially in the context of the market not turning, the adjustment has brought better allocation opportunities," said the above-mentioned state-owned bank financial management company.
