Our reporter Wang Ning
On May 7, the latest statistics of the China Futures Association showed that, on a unilateral basis, the turnover of the national futures market in April was 666 million hands, with a turnover of 56.74 trillion yuan, down 1.01% and up 28.49% year on year respectively; In the first four months, the cumulative trading volume of the national futures market was 2.176 billion hands, and the cumulative trading volume was 180.90 trillion yuan, down 6.86% and up 9.60% year on year respectively.
Many insiders believe that the "trade-off" situation in futures market transactions is mainly caused by the movement of the overall commodity price center. For example, the price of precious metals dominated by gold has hit a record high, and the corresponding transaction volume has increased.
The pattern of "one ebbs and the other grows" may continue
In the view of many analysts, the pattern of "ebb and flow" in the futures market may continue throughout the year.
Li Hui, deputy manager of Zhongyan Futures Investment Consulting Department, said that the main reason for the "one increase and one decrease" of the turnover and volume of futures market was the overall upward movement of the commodity price center during the year. Since the beginning of this year, precious metals and non-ferrous metals have increased significantly, and energy and chemical industry has also shown a rising trend driven by the price of crude oil. Compared with the same period last year, the price focus of most commodity futures has increased this year. While the trading volume of most varieties has not changed much, the transaction amount has increased significantly.
"Looking at the whole year, the transaction volume of the whole market is expected to increase while the transaction volume may decrease, which is the opposite of last year." Xiang Bo, a researcher of Zhejiang Merchants Futures, said that the transaction volume of the futures market hit a record high last year, ranking second in the history of transaction volume. Some agricultural and industrial products have strong performance, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals have weak performance, This year, however, the situation is opposite.
In terms of sectors, nonferrous metals and precious metals have become the main growth force this year. Data shows that the turnover and turnover of gold, silver, copper, industrial silicon and wire rod have increased to a certain extent during the year.
Li Ershi, the chief macro financial analyst of Guotou Essence Futures, said that the core reason for the "one up and one down" of transactions in the whole market was the structural differentiation of commodity prices in spring. In March and April, the market prices were mainly driven by leading varieties to increase the turnover, while most other varieties were relatively weak, so the overall market turnover declined.
The turnover of 14 varieties exceeded 100% year on year
Although the overall trading volume of the whole market has declined, from the perspective of a single variety, there are still many varieties with rapid year-on-year growth in trading volume. Data shows that the turnover of 14 varieties, including industrial silicon, fiberboard, eggs, silver, wire rod, gold, pigs and copper, exceeded 100% year on year in April.
The interviewed insiders believe that gold is the focus of commodity futures this year, and the price rise will inevitably drive the turnover higher. Li Hui said that the rise of gold price was mainly supported by the international macroeconomic situation and geopolitical factors. At the same time, the industrial products represented by copper were also significantly stronger.
"Precious metal prices continued to rise to a high level, and risk aversion became the main force." Xiang Bo said that non-ferrous metals returned to the rising trend after more than two years of sideways shocks, with Shanghai copper rising significantly. But in the short term, agricultural products will rise under the influence of the weather, which is represented by the oil and grease sector, driving the agricultural products sector to be active.
According to the transaction volume of individual varieties in each exchange, the top three varieties are gold, silver and copper in the previous exchange, soda ash, rapeseed oil and glass in the Zheng Exchange, palm oil, soybean meal and iron ore in the Dashang Exchange, industrial silicon futures, lithium carbonate futures and lithium carbonate options in the Guangzhou Stock Exchange; According to the top three in terms of trading volume, the last bourse was silver, rebar and fuel oil, the Zhengshang Exchange was soda ash, glass and rapeseed meal respectively, the Dachang Exchange was soybean meal, palm oil and PVC respectively, and the Canton Exchange was industrial silicon futures, lithium carbonate futures and industrial silicon futures respectively.
Xiao Jing, chief analyst of Nonferrous Metals at SDIC Essence Futures, said that this year, the domestic and foreign markets have formed a strong resonance for the bullion allocation of precious metals, and all countries are increasing their reserves of gold. "Compared with precious metals, the investment logic of domestic and overseas markets for non-ferrous metals represented by copper is different. For example, the overseas market is dominated by long-term transactions, while the domestic market is dominated by consumption. The domestic and overseas markets have more consistent views on copper fundamentals, and the overall position shows a continuous upward trend."
