Our reporter Wang Ning
In the past month (from April 8 to May 7, the same below), the deposit funds in the futures market have increased significantly. According to the exclusive information of Wenhua Financial Data, the reporter of Securities Daily has learned that up to now, the deposit capital in the futures market has approached 650 billion yuan, of which the deposit capital of commodity futures has successfully reached 400 billion yuan; At the same time, from the performance of individual varieties, gold continues to be known as the "gold king", with an increase of 8.8 billion yuan in capital in recent months.
Many analysts said that due to the recent large fluctuations in international fundamentals, the price of resource based commodities has risen, and the price center of such commodities is at a low level, some varieties have shown their ability to "absorb gold", such as precious metals represented by gold and silver, and non-ferrous metals represented by copper. In the short term, there are still investment opportunities for these varieties, and investors can enter on bargain hunting.
Commodity futures become the main force of capital growth
According to the data, the deposit capital in the futures market increased by nearly 70 billion yuan in the past month, and now it is close to 650 billion yuan, a record high. In terms of classification, commodity futures have become the main force of growth, increasing from 350 billion yuan to more than 400 billion yuan in the past month; At the same time, the deposit funds of financial futures also showed a growth trend, with an increase of about 20 billion yuan in the last month.
Many analysts said that the recent sharp increase in the deposit funds in the futures market was due to fluctuations in international fundamentals. Wang Peng, chief macro analyst of Galaxy Futures, said to reporters that, generally speaking, the deposited funds in the futures market are determined by many factors, such as the position, price and margin ratio. However, this round of fund increase is due to frequent risk events in overseas markets and financial market turbulence. Global investors, including domestic futures investors, have sharply increased their demand for risk management.
Cao Shanshan, a researcher of COFCO Futures, said through analysis that commodity futures dominated the sharp rise of this round of deposited funds. On the one hand, due to the relatively clear trend of various varieties, increased volatility and active transactions, funds were attracted to the market; On the other hand, industry participants are mostly short hedges. After the price rises, the participation of real enterprises increases, and positions and liquidity also increase simultaneously. "In terms of sectors, after the increase of varieties led by precious metals and non-ferrous metals, the volume and price increased significantly, and the deposit capital showed a significant growth trend."
Since April, the trading volume and positions of all commodity sectors have increased significantly. In the opinion of Wu Mengyin, a senior analyst of commodity strategy at Dongzheng Derivatives Research Institute, in addition to the seasonal effect, international macro and geopolitical conflicts play a major driving role. These factors all point to the fact that commodity valuations are on the rise, so the precipitation funds are also rising.
More than 40 billion yuan of fund has been deposited with varieties
In this round of higher commodity futures funds, some varieties played a major role. In addition to higher prices, the positions of institutional seats also increased significantly.
Taking gold as an example, the official website of Shanghai Futures Exchange shows that on May 7, the number of the top 20 main seats of the Shanghai Gold 2408 contract reached 188700, an increase of 66500 over the previous trading day, and the number of Guotai Jun'an and CITIC futures seats reached more than 11000.
At the same time, the positions of the top 20 main seats in the bulls also reached nearly 80000, an increase of 4724 compared with the previous trading day, and the positions of Guotai Jun'an, CITIC Futures and Zhongcai Futures all exceeded 10000. Yong'an Futures, Everbright Futures, Nanhua Futures and Baocheng Futures became the main players in increasing positions; In terms of short positions, the top 20 main seats held a total of 43000 positions, an increase of 4647 positions over the previous trading day. CITIC Futures, Qisheng Futures, Ping An Futures and Guotai Jun'an continued to rank high. Among them, CITIC Futures, Guotai Jun'an and Haitong Futures became the main players in short positions.
Judging from the ranking of the top 20 main seats in the main contract 2408, the long and short positions showed a significant growth trend in the past month. The data shows that on April 8, the long position of SHJ 2408 contract was only 41000 and the short position was only 28000; Long and short positions have doubled in recent months.
"The ability of gold, silver and other varieties to 'attract gold' is directly related to the increase in demand for risk management." Wang Peng said that the price of precious metals hit a record high in late April, and the amount of positions reached the highest level in history since 2019. In addition, the position of copper, deformed steel bar, hot rolled coil, pig and other varieties is also at the highest level in history. In combination with the changes in production and trade patterns of related industries, the increase of precipitation funds reflects the role and significance of derivatives as an effective management tool for the development of the real economy.
Data shows that at present, there are nine varieties with more than 10 billion yuan of deposited funds, namely gold, copper, silver, iron ore, soybean meal, rebar, soybean oil, aluminum and soda ash. Among them, the capital of gold increased by more than 8.8 billion yuan in the last month, up to nearly 45 billion yuan at present, and it is also the only two varieties with more than 40 billion yuan of accumulated capital in the whole market.
Analysts said that gold is a kind of commodity futures with strong certainty, and market traders are more cognizant of investment opportunities with high certainty. Cao Shanshan believes that after the favorable fundamentals of gold resonate with bullish funds, the price will rise to the current high. In the short term, the certainty will continue. The bullish funds are unwilling to leave the market and their liquidity is strong. It is expected that new funds will continue to be attracted in the future.
Wu Mengyin is optimistic about the performance of agricultural products in the short term. She believes that the futures prices of agricultural products may be supported by overseas market inflation, weather themes and other factors. "At present, the valuation of agricultural products has fallen to a historical low, short transactions are relatively crowded, inflation expectations are rising and the supply side is favorable, and there may be investment opportunities for oil products in the later stage."
