Wen/Tan Hao, a columnist of Sina Finance
Since December, the bond market has suddenly become the focus of attention of the entire investment community; On the other hand, more people are concerned about whether the window of investment opportunities has been opened?
A few days ago, Gao Shanwen, a member of RIH and chief economist of Essence Securities [Weibo] Doctor issues ten thousand words long text《 Bond distress 》And further pushed the discussion to a climax.
At the weekend, I communicated with Li Haipeng, a member of RIH and head of the Fixed Income Department of China Southern Fund. His views are the same as those of Mr. Gao Shanwen, but also different.
I will present the views of two Niuren who think independently. I believe it will be helpful for your bond market investment.
The following is the essence of my dialogue with Li Haipeng.
1、 Li Haipeng believes that there are three main reasons for the recent price adjustment of the bond market. From the third quarter of 2011 to this year, the bond market has gone through a bull market for almost two years, and the return rate of many bonds has dropped from more than six points to more than four points, which has accumulated considerable bubbles. 2. Central Bank [Weibo] Adjustment of monetary policy.
3. The squeeze of non-standard assets on standardized bonds. Not only banks, including insurance and investment companies, are selling low yield standardized bonds and buying higher yield non-standard assets such as trusts.
2、 Many people use the logic of investing in stocks to understand the bond market, which is wrong. The investment logic of stocks mainly depends on buying and waiting for the price to rise. The investment logic of bonds mainly depends on coupon. More specifically, on the basis of managing credit risk well, we should try our best to obtain high coupon and properly use leverage and other trading means.
3、 Many people say that it is the winter of bonds, but Li Haipeng believes that now may be the best time to invest in bonds. During the bull market of bonds in the first half of the year, the expected return of most varieties was about 5% at that time, but now it is generally 6% - 7%. With a little leverage, it can exceed 8%.
From this point forward, even if the market price does not rise or fall, the expected return of bonds can reach the range of 8% - 9%. For example, the three-year Jiuquan Steel Bond, with 8% coupon; Urban investment bonds resold in Yuxi, Yunnan, with 8.2% coupon.
4、 Dr. Gao Shanwen put forward two views: 1. The interest rate of short-term bond market is close to the periodic top. 2. The center of medium and long-term interest rates will continue to move upward.
Li Haipeng expressed that he agreed with the first point of view and reserved the second point of view. From the experience of international interest rate marketization, in the early stage of general interest rate marketization, interest rates are rising. But in the long run, the level of interest rate depends on the macro-economy. At present, the two largest capital inflows in China are local government financing platforms and real estate development. In fact, only these two can bear high interest rates.
Other enterprises can hardly bear it. But those enterprises are actually the main body to solve the employment problem. Therefore, if the high interest rate is maintained, it will do great harm to the real economy.
For example, recently he talked with a friend of a large state-owned enterprise that the interest rate for issuing bonds is now up to 6%, and they have given up because they feel unacceptable.
Therefore, the trend of medium and long-term interest rates needs to be observed, and the situation of China's economic transformation and reform in the future should be observed. Once China's economic transformation is successful and the proportion of government financing platforms and real estate is reduced, it is impossible to maintain such a high level of interest rates all the time.
5、 Investment opportunities in the bond market. From the perspective of opportunity, Li Haipeng believes that a good opportunity has been entered at present. The static yield of some varieties at this time point has reached 9%, which was not seen in 2005 and 2008.
The best investment target is high-grade, medium and short-term credit bonds. If you want to see more discussions on this bond market investment opportunity by RIH members such as Li Haipeng and Gao Shanwen, please follow the WeChat official account RIH118.
(The author of this article introduces: senior financial media person, founder of RIH investment reading conference, and quantitative investor. The original Entropy College timing system accurately grasped all the big trends of A shares in history. WeChat official account RIH118.)
