Article/Tan Haojun, columnist of Sina Financial Opinion Leader Column (WeChat public account kopleader)
The real estate market regulation has reached a critical moment, and the most urgent thing is to maintain the stability of the policy and create good conditions for the introduction of policies such as property tax. It is obvious that the suppression of real estate demand by financial institutions in terms of mortgage interest rates is not conducive to the stability of the property market, especially the rise and fall of house prices. If we continue to raise the price, what we just need will be suppressed too much, which is likely to become the driving force of future house price rise. At that time, real estate speculation may become a very important factor affecting the stability of the property market.
The latest data of the national housing loan market has been released. The latest report of Rong360 shows that in February, the average interest rate of the first home loan in China was 5.46%, equivalent to 1.114 times the benchmark interest rate, up 0.55% month on month; It rose 22.15% year on year. Data shows that in February, among 533 banks in 35 cities nationwide, 53 banks' first home loan interest rates rose, accounting for 9.94%; The interest rate of first home loans of 7 banks decreased, accounting for 1.31%; There were 469 banks whose first home loan interest rate was the same as last month, accounting for 87.99%.
How to promote the regulation of the property market in depth and how to control the interest rate of housing loans are facing a severe test. Because the interest rate of the first house loan has continued to rise, reaching 1.114 times of the benchmark interest rate, whether the direction of regulation has gone astray deserves serious attention and consideration.
The central government put forward the requirement that "houses are used for living, not for speculation". The basic meaning of diet is two levels: one is "living", the other is "speculation". "Living" is encouraged, "speculation" is restricted, and the purpose of restricting "speculation" is to meet "living". The requirement of emphasizing "living" is to restrict "speculation". If "living" is also restricted, it is to remove children and water together. Obviously, this does not meet the requirements of the Central Committee and distorts its meaning.
The fact is that, since last year, when we gave loans to residents to buy houses without restraint, for a period of time, housing loans accounted for more than 70% of the new loans. Now, we are constantly raising the interest rate of housing loans, especially the interest rate of the first house. How do financial institutions control the credit policy, how do they implement the requirements of the central government, and why is there a 180 degree turn, Positive response from financial institutions is required. After all, just need should be encouraged and supported by the regulation of the property market, which must be guaranteed. In other words, no matter which aspect, the rigid demand should not be restricted and pressure should be exerted on it. Obviously, the bank continues to raise the interest rate of the first house loan, which is to artificially suppress the demand.
What we are worried about is that such a desperate attempt to curb rigid demand will inevitably lead to a downturn in the real estate market and a strong internal momentum of market demand. Once the policy is adjusted, especially the regulation is relaxed, the house price will rebound rapidly, and then bring new harm to the majority of residents. Because, in the face of rising mortgage interest rates, many residents have to give up their demand for housing and wait for the mortgage interest rate to fall before buying.
More importantly, such an increase in the mortgage interest rate for the first house may also release a new signal, that is, house prices will further rise, and the contradiction between supply and demand will further worsen. Otherwise, why should we control housing loans so severely and raise the interest rate of housing loans again and again? Has the regulation of the property market reached the point where even "living" has to be abandoned? You should know that it is impossible for the residents of the first house to be linked with the word "speculation". "Living" is the primary goal of the first set of housing residents. Even if it is investment, it is also to buy the house first in order to prevent future price rise.
It should be noted that many second tier cities have relaxed their purchase restrictions, which is also intended to meet the rigid demand and improvement demand, and to better implement the requirement that "houses are for living". Under such circumstances, financial institutions should actively cooperate with the local government to meet the goal of rigid demand and improving demand, and give effective encouragement and support to rigid demand, rather than curbing rigid demand by raising the mortgage interest rate. If so, the policy will be really biased, which will violate the requirements of the central government and the wishes of the general population.
Some people may say that financial institutions frequently raise mortgage interest rates, which may be related to the shortage of funds. We do not rule out the reasons for this, but it is not nearly two months, but more than half a year ago. The continuous increase is obviously not directly related to the shortage of funds, but the financial institutions misunderstood the requirements of the central government, which led to the sharp rise and fall of housing loan interest rates and damaged the interests of the majority of residents.
We said that the real estate market regulation has reached a critical moment, and the most urgent thing is to maintain the stability of the policy and create good conditions for the introduction of policies such as the property tax. It is obvious that the suppression of real estate demand by financial institutions in terms of mortgage interest rates is not conducive to the stability of the property market, especially the rise and fall of house prices. If we continue to raise the price, what we just need will be suppressed too much, which is likely to become the driving force of future house price rise. At that time, real estate speculation may become a very important factor affecting the stability of the property market. Rigid demand is an important factor to maintain market stability and an important means to stabilize house prices. Any action that harms the demand may affect the stability of the market. This must be kept in mind. Therefore, financial institutions must understand the situation of the real estate market, and they must never do anything harmful to the real estate market.
(About the author: researcher of China Non performing Assets Industry Alliance)
