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Our reporter Zhang Xiang
Less than a year has passed since the listing of the first warrant, and the trading volume of warrants has continuously hit new highs. The birth of the myth of becoming rich also made the warrant hot. It is an ideal answer for many investors who want to make money and avoid risks.
Reviewing the operation of the warrant market in the past year, we can find that investors' profit models can be roughly classified into three categories. Investors with different risk preferences seek the source of wealth here in a mode suitable for themselves.
If you are optimistic about the positive shares, you should focus on the warrant
It is the most common operation mode of warrant to pry the warrant up by the rise of positive shares. Relatively speaking, it is also an easy way to control the risk of warrants. Taking Wuliang YGC1 as an example, the warrant was listed on April 3 with a closing price of 1.502 yuan on that day, but on May 16, 25 trading days later, its price had soared to 10.54 yuan, up 600% accumulatively. Although the increase was huge, the premium rate of warrants fell from 18.6% to 17.3% due to the fact that the positive shares also rose by 110% over the same period. The case of Wuliangye clearly illustrates the explosive profit opportunities brought by the leverage effect of warrants. Similarly, Capital JTB1 rose 315% from the next day of listing to May 17, but its premium rate increased from 22.3% to 53.9%, a rise of only 142%, due to the rise of 25% in the same period in the positive shares; Baotou Steel JTB1 rose 216.2% from May 8 to May 22, while the positive shares rose 42.1% over the same period, and the premium rate rose slightly from 32% to 33.4%.
Generally speaking, you should be optimistic about the long-term performance of a company and buy shares It is better to buy warrant. Of course, to judge the value of the warrant, we must also consider its valuation level, that is, the premium rate. As of last Friday, the average premium rate of 10 warrants was 33.6%, of which the premium rates of Baotou Steel JTB1 and Capital JTB1 were higher than 45%, which was relatively high; Wanhua HXB1 Ansteel The premium rate of JTC1 is 13.4% and 26.3% respectively, which is worth considering by investors who are optimistic about positive shares.
Pure speculation game of put warrants
At present, there are 10 call warrants listed, and as many as 15 put warrants. It can be seen that most companies that send out warrants are optimistic about their future prospects, so they tend to issue put warrants that are likely to become worthless when they expire.
However, it is precisely these put warrants with greater risk that have become the props of some hot money speculation. Under this kind of irrational speculation, the warrant has lost its focus on fundamental factors and has become a symbol of speculation. For example, after listing, JTP1 of WISCO closed at 1.86 yuan for three consecutive trading limits, while the current price is 0.83 yuan, with only a fraction left, and its premium rate also returned from 56.4% to 23.8%. The early listing of WISCO warrants and the scarcity of resources led to their initial speculation.
In the market since May, there has been another type of speculation - capital driven. Since May, all kinds of funds have been flowing into the market, and put warrants have failed to stand alone in this wave of speculation. From May 8 to 19, 12 put warrants (excluding the three that have risen recently) rose by 60% on average, of which Wuliang YGP1 ranked first with an increase of 144.8%. For most put warrants, there is basically no concern from mainstream institutions, thus becoming the target of short-term hot money speculation. In this purely hyped game, it would be very difficult to retreat without being a short-term master.
Risk free arbitrage of positive shares+put warrants
Put warrants have the function of locking down the downside risk of positive shares, so when the put warrants are significantly undervalued, the risk free arbitrage opportunity of positive shares+put warrants will appear. As a result, Shanghai JTP1 and Valin JTP1 were once the focus of the market.
As investors are optimistic about the future performance of G Valin and G Shanghai Airport, the price of their put warrants has fallen all the way after listing. On the first day of its listing, the sum of the price of Valin warrants and its regular shares was 5.285 yuan. On March 24, this value fell below the exercise price of 4.9 yuan, reaching 4.882 yuan, and reached the low point of 4.625 yuan on April 28. This means that if you do not consider the transaction costs, dividends and other factors, you can obtain 5.95% of the income after about one year by purchasing the regular shares and warrants at the same time at 4.625 yuan. Due to the rare hot market in the A-share market, this arbitrage opportunity with no risk but limited returns was ignored by most investors.
However, according to the trading seats, fund periodic statements and other information released by the comprehensive exchange, there are still some funds and brokers involved in arbitrage speculation. According to the author's statistics, the value of the arbitrage portfolio of Valin and Shanghai Airport has increased by 23% and 19% respectively since the low point. It can be seen that even for short-term operations, funds and other institutions have also achieved considerable gains.
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