The risk of falling back will start to release after Baosteel's warrant reaches two yuan higher

Ge Xinyuan

Baosteel Warrant（ information quotation forum ）The highest price yesterday was 2.088 yuan, which has exceeded 2 yuan. Before the listing of Baosteel Warrants, some investors joked that Baosteel Warrants would get 2 yuan. At that time, everyone thought it was a big joke, but today, the joke has been true.

The price of Baosteel's warrants reached 2.088 yuan, which means that investors who bought the warrants at this price must pay back their capital when the share price of Baosteel shares reaches 6.59 yuan at that time if the holding period expires. If the cost of capital is considered, the share price of Baosteel shares will reach 7.3 yuan or more a year later before they can be profitable. However, the arbitrage balance share price between warrants and regular shares was as high as 8.03 yuan, that is, only one year later, the share price of Baosteel exceeded 8.03 yuan. Buying Baosteel warrants at the highest price yesterday was higher than buying Baosteel warrants

At present, the funds in the warrant market are those who prefer high risk. Investors have found another profit model in Baosteel's warrants, which is to make full use of the T+0 trading characteristics to win short-term price differential returns.

Since the warrant transaction is T+0, the warrant investors make full use of this feature to carry out reverse transactions and win the maximum yield. In theory, using T+0 trading can obtain the return rate of all bands highly stacked on that day. Except for the one-day limit increase on the first day, all bands of Baosteel warrants with an increase of more than 3% accumulated 109% on August 23. On August 24, the volatility of warrants slightly decreased, but the cumulative amplitude also exceeded 60%. The combination of T+0 trading and high volatility makes warrants a very good type of trading, forming a special profit model different from stock trading - use T+0 reverse trading to earn every band of the day as much as possible.

Generally, investors who choose this kind of operation strategy will not keep their warrant positions overnight, but will choose to clear positions before the closing, and then establish positions at the opening of the next day. Therefore, if the proportion of such investors is high, the warrant trend will regularly move out of the figure of rising opening and falling closing. Another performance is that the turnover rate of warrants is very high. On the second trading day, the turnover rate was 331%, and yesterday it reached 429%. That is, each warrant was bought and sold for at least two rounds in one day.

The operation mode of such super short-term speculation has great risks. At present, the supply of warrants is seriously insufficient, so the price separated from value can be maintained. Once the supply of warrants increases, Or when Baosteel's warrants are nearing maturity (due to the expected effect, it is not even necessary for the warrants to be nearing maturity, as long as most investors realize that the value of the final warrants comes from the exercise income, the speculative boom will subside), then the characteristics of short-term speculation will lead to the instantaneous loss of liquidity in warrant trading, and a more drastic decline will complete the value return.

The trend of Baosteel warrants yesterday has shown a dangerous sign. After the opening price reached 2.088 yuan, it fell step by step, and changed hands 226% throughout the day. It is estimated that most of the investors who bought the warrants that day have been covered. According to our estimates, the average loss is at least 6%. Of course, the speculative trading of short-term Baosteel warrants is not likely to ebb so quickly, but it can be expected that the good time when it can easily earn more than 30% of profits on the second and third trading days will be hard to reappear. The return of the value of Baosteel warrants may have begun, and the ideal situation is of course to gradually achieve a soft landing, However, it is inevitable that the price risk of warrants will be released.