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Warrants far exceeded the theoretical value within a few days, leaving people at a loss. Those familiar with the speculative characteristics of China's stock market had expected this. This is the first derivative of the stock market
Author: Our reporter Chen Wei/Wen
"Warrants have gone too crazy. We basically took Baosteel Warrants（ information quotation forum ）It's all sold out now
See how the next market will be interpreted. " A manager of a fund company talked about Baosteel Warrant (580000) in a sarcastic tone.
Let us remember that Baosteel's warrants were listed for the first time in many years, which attracted countless investors. Since the opening on Monday with a theoretical value of 0.68 yuan, Baosteel's warrants have soared for several days, reaching a maximum of 1.976 yuan. The closing price on Wednesday was 1.81 yuan, up 165% in total. The three-day cumulative turnover rate also reached 790%, setting a record for the highest turnover rate in China's stock market in recent years.
Four reasons for crazy hype
When Baosteel's warrants were wildly hyped, the regular share price was always around 4.6 yuan. Wen Guoqing, chief analyst of Hexun, believed that the intrinsic value of warrants could not support the current high price of warrants. Because the warrant price of 1.8 yuan means the future warrant exercise date shares The price must reach 6.4 yuan to reach the break even point, which means that Baosteel（ information quotation forum ）In the future, the price increase will reach about 42%, which is very difficult for Baosteel, which is at the top of the industry cycle. In addition, historically, the annual average increase of Baosteel is only 11.2%.
"Only from the perspective of speculation can we understand the current market," said Liu Xiangning, an analyst with United Securities Warrants. He believes that the good expectation of policy support is the source of confidence of speculators. Baosteel Warrants is an innovative product launched by the Shanghai Stock Exchange through share reform. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has stated that warrants can only be successful without failure. With the support of the management, speculators expect that the management will not let the warrant speculation have bad results.
The pilot characteristics of warrants have resulted in the uniqueness of Baosteel's warrants, and the lack of short selling mechanism has encouraged speculators' psychological expectations. These two factors are the basis of warrant pricing. Their absence makes market supply and demand become the decisive factors of short-term warrant prices, which makes speculators dare to play the game of "beating drums and spreading flowers".
The scarcity of the market is the best subject for speculators to hype. In the past, the market had a complex of "speculation when new", such as that of the year Closed end fund What's more, the number of warrants issued by Baosteel is limited, only 387.7 million. At present, the total value is less than 700 million yuan, which is only equivalent to a small cap stock. It is attractive to investors who prefer high risks and pursue high returns. The T+0 trading system is the driving force for speculators.
Liu Xiangning believes that it is the implicit support of the government, the split between investment and speculation caused by the lack of system, the scarce market varieties, and the unique trading charm that provide the necessary conditions for speculation of Baosteel warrants. As long as the relevant factors are not weakened, the highly speculative atmosphere of warrants is likely to continue.
Thoughts on crazy speculation of warrants
The hot speculation of Baosteel warrants has caused heated debate among all parties. In any case, future warrants will develop on this basis.
Wen Guoqing believes that the current price of Baosteel's warrants is too high, which will inevitably face the process of value return in the future. At that time, liquidity problems and abnormal price fluctuations may also occur, which may bring considerable adjustment pressure to the positive shares and affect the stability of the market. Ge Xinyuan, financial engineering analyst of Guosen Securities, also said that if the price of warrants dropped sharply, it might cause certain risks to the market. For example, when there are many situations of sharp decline without taking orders, the primary dealer may be forced to take orders of warrants at a high level due to obligation constraints, leading to the expansion of the risk of the primary dealer.
Some insiders believe that Baosteel warrants, as the product of share reform, will not only affect the secondary market, but also likely affect the follow-up Non tradable shares The level of consideration payment in the reform. Yang Guangwei, an analyst with Changjiang Securities, said that from the perspective of the current profitability of Baosteel warrants, it exceeded the expectations of shareholders of tradable shares who obtained consideration. This will inevitably drive more major shareholders of non tradable shares to follow suit, thus reducing the cost of share reform, and more conducive to the reduction of non tradable shares in the future. However, the interests of shareholders of tradable shares have increased many uncertainties, and may even suffer losses.
However, some analysts believe that the craziness of warrant trend cannot be fully understood from the negative. A fund manager said frankly that the surge of Baosteel warrants should not be viewed too negatively. What China's securities market lacks is not value investment, but stable speculative power, which is the lubricant of the market.
Liu Xiangning also said that the understanding of warrants cannot be seen only from the short-term trend. This may be what the parties concerned are willing to see, for example, investors can use it to "train" to adapt to the more complex financial product investment environment in the future; The relevant competent department can also use the event to urge the decision-making level to make a decision to improve the warrant trading system as soon as possible.
It is understood that Guotai Jun'an, as a primary dealer, has applied to the relevant departments for the issuance of Baosteel covered warrants. The original expected approval time was 20 days, but now it is likely to be ahead of schedule to curb excessive speculation, and the idea of continuous issuance and creation of warrants, and the establishment of a real warrant market maker system may also be realized ahead of schedule.
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
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