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Talking about Shuipi
What is "holding on to be brave and scared to be cowardly"?
Baosteel Warrant（ information quotation forum ）The trend of these two days is the answer. On August 22, warrants that had been absent from China's stock market for nine years returned to the market, and 387.7 million Baosteel warrants were listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
This is the scene that no one can imagine Thunder It happened before I could cover my ears. The theoretical reference price given by the Exchange was 0.688 yuan, but soon after the opening, Baosteel's warrants were locked at the limit of 1.263, up an astonishing 83.576%. On that day, 1.39 million hands were changed, with a turnover rate of 30%. The sudden rise of Baosteel's warrants was astonishing, and almost all the insiders were shocked and said they could not understand it. Has Baosteel Warrant really become what people call an ornamental?
The trend of August 23 has once again broken the glasses of critics. On the same day, Baosteel Warrants jumped high with 1.350 yuan and rose to 1.830 yuan an hour later, just one step away from the ceiling of 1.842 yuan, with a maximum increase of 44.89%. At the end of the day, it closed at 1.586 yuan, with a daily increase of 25.57%. The total number of transactions reached 12.83 million, almost 10 times the turnover on August 18. The turnover rate reached 336%, and the transaction amount exceeded 2 billion yuan, The power of T+0 is fully revealed.
Does Baosteel warrant still have value?
Theoretically, the value of warrants is shares The price minus the exercise price agreed upon at the time of issuance. Baosteel's current share price is only 4.57 yuan, while the exercise price of warrants is 4.50 yuan. In other words, if the right is exercised now, Baosteel's warrants will only be worth 0.07 yuan. Once Baosteel's shares fall below 4.50 yuan, the warrants will be a piece of waste paper.
So, who is robbing waste paper?
The fund manager said that we had no idea, we could only throw in 40% of Baosteel warrants in the hands of the fund, and the first day of selling came from the fund; The broker said that our brains are not in the water, so we will not take the hot potato from the fund. Don't think that we really can't account for it; What about retail investors? Retail investors have said that our minds are not fully occupied. How dare we touch the warrant if we don't understand it completely?
Funds dare not touch, brokers dare not touch, retail investors dare not touch, and only those who dare to touch warrants are fearless "cross the river dragon". The dragon tiger list shows that all the scavengers of Baosteel warrants are concentrated in Shenzhen.
What do you see in the Zhongbao Steel Warrant after crossing Jianglong?
Baosteel warrant is a kind of call warrant, which lasts for 378 days, and the exercise period is August 30, 2006. Who can guess what will happen in more than a year? This is one of them.
Baosteel warrants are a by-product of Baosteel's share reform, and Baosteel has promised to invest 2 billion to protect the market when its share price is less than 4.53 yuan, but it has also promised to reduce its holding price 24 months later by no less than 5.63 yuan and hold no less than 67% of its shares, which means that the number of shares that Baosteel can reduce is only about 1.225 billion shares, including 387.7 million shares that will be allocated to investors at 4.50 yuan, The pressure of underweight is not great. This is the second.
The stock price of Baosteel is now 4.57 yuan, with a P/E ratio of only 6 times, and its performance in 2005 can reach about 0.80 yuan. If the P/E ratio of Baosteel reaches about 10 times, it means that there will be a space of 8 yuan - 4.50 yuan=3.50 yuan in theory for Baosteel warrants. Even if it reaches only 5.63 yuan of Baosteel's commitment price for reduction, then there will be a space of 5.63 yuan - 4.50 yuan=1.13 yuan for warrants. This is the third.
Baosteel Warrant is an innovative product of Shanghai Stock Exchange's share reform. The CSRC said that the share reform had not been reversed, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange would dare to say that Baosteel Warrants were only allowed to succeed, not allowed to fail. With the banner of share reform, the escort of secondary management, and the tradition of speculation in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, what concept of Baosteel warrants cannot be added? This is the fourth.
Baosteel warrant is a kind of rights issue warrant. The popularity of warrants indicates that the market is in short supply, and the only way to stabilize it is to increase supply. Facts show that Guotai Jun'an, the underwriter of Baosteel warrants, has proposed to the Shanghai Stock Exchange to issue additional covered warrants of the same amount on the same day, which means that another 387.7 million shares of Baosteel shares will be reduced through warrants, and Baosteel Group will become the largest beneficiary. This is the fifth.
The share reform of Baosteel has attracted the attention of the public. The warrants of Baosteel have also attracted the attention of the public. It is better to go through the river with foresight, or to be a local villain with hindsight. What we have grasped is nothing but the weakness of the management.
The market value of Baosteel Warrants is only 600 million yuan, but it has made a turnover of 2 billion yuan. The exchange gains the most, but it amplifies the risk of investors. On August 19, the trading amount of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was RMB 9.96 billion, and the 2 billion trading volume excluding warrants was only about RMB 7.9 billion, which could only lead to the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index（ information quotation forum ）Look down for balance.
It has to be reminded that the trend of Baosteel's stock and Baosteel's warrants is just the opposite. On August 18, Baosteel's stock opened high and went low, falling from a maximum of 4.74 yuan to 4.63 yuan. On August 19, it opened flat and went low, sliding all the way from 4.63 yuan to 4.57 yuan. Which is true or false?
Warrants have two functions, one is to replace the stock to find value, the other is to replace speculation to amplify risk.
As early as 1992, Bao'an Shares, a listed company on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, also issued warrants. The subscription price was set at 20 yuan, and the opening price was 4 yuan. The highest price was 23.60 yuan. There was still 3.60 yuan more than the subscription price. The degree of madness can be seen, but it was finally delisted at 2.35 yuan.
The history is often strikingly similar. It is too early to draw a conclusion whether Baosteel Warrants will repeat the mistakes of Bao'an Warrants or use the force of share reform to refresh the history, and what role Baosteel Warrants will play in the institutional transition of China's stock market.
No one can tell exactly what medicine Baosteel warrants are selling in this gourd.
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
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