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Huang Xiangyuan
Time went back ten years. At that time, the warrants in the stock market were like lottery tickets. When the warrants rose, they were like winning the lottery, even more exciting than winning the lottery. There are only a few lucky winners in the lottery, but once the warrants soar, a large number of people will benefit! Because of this, the speculative stock market has more reasons to use warrants as lottery tickets. However, people who gamble on warrants like lottery do not think that there is only a difference between winning the lottery and not winning the lottery. There is no difference between the big lottery and the small lottery
The risk of losing money. However, as much as the huge profits implied in warrants, the risks are as great as they are. Although the warrant market in that year once brought a surprise to the stock market, when it was delisted, it also left many hates to investors.
Now, warrants are back in the stock market. The new mission is to provide a new consideration tool for the split share structure reform. The feature of this tool is that it turns the argument between non tradable shareholders and tradable shareholders in consideration into a game in the market. If the price of the non tradable shares' warrants compensated for the tradable shares is too low, the tradable shareholders can choose to buy them, otherwise, they can sell them. Therefore, the smooth operation of the market can be expected in theory.
However, due to the introduction of the short mechanism, warrant design is actually not possible to simplify complex issues, but may complicate simple issues. If the introduction of short selling mechanism in the environment without full circulation will only increase the market risk, then the risk of warrants under the condition of introducing short selling mechanism will only be greater than the original, but it is impossible to become smaller.
Warrants are essentially options with leverage characteristics, and the risk return ratio is far from that of stocks. Investors still remember the huge waves of warrants in the market in 1994 and 1995. Especially in November 1995, under the influence of the extension of trading time of the warrant, the light industry A right was renewed from Suspension The previous 1.45 yuan rose to 5.24 yuan, and fell back to 4.60 yuan, up 217% on the day. Sino Italian A-share soared from 1.1 yuan last trading day to 4.59 yuan, a one-day increase of 317%. At the same time, the closing price of Jilin Light Industry was only 3.94 yuan, while that of Xiangzhong was 3.84 yuan. The price of its regular shares was much lower than that of its warrants. This abnormal price inversion reflects the high risk and difficult supervision of warrant market transactions. This time, warrants are back in the Jianghu, reminding people to pay close attention to the risk of warrant market.
The introduction of warrants in the pilot reform of non tradable shares is a way to broaden our thinking. At present, the market appreciates warrants more than stock dividend, the main reason is not only its broader adaptability, but also its greater flexibility in speculation. When speculative thinking is still serious, the introduction of warrants may have a huge impact on the existing market investment behavior. Reviewing history and learning from past experiences and lessons will help avoid further detours and better play the positive role of warrants, a new product.
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