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□ Galaxy Securities Zhong Chen
Baosteel Warrant（ information quotation forum ）(JTB1) is the first listed warrant in China's securities market in recent years. As an innovative derivative financial product and a convenient T+0 turnaround trading mode, it has attracted a large number of speculative funds and caused significant price fluctuations
, which contains great opportunities and risks, it is necessary to use some technical means and methods to judge and estimate the resistance level or support level during its operation. In this article, we use the Mori price fractal line (note the difference with Gann's 8-point price method) as an analysis tool, and provide the conclusion to you, hoping to help investors in their trading.
From the listing of Baosteel warrants to the present (observation period), the price fluctuation range is (1.260 → 2.088) yuan. Since the highest price of 2.088 yuan meets the equation 1.5625<2.088<3.125, according to the Murray rhythm table, the Murray rhythm of Baosteel warrants in this price range SR=3.125 yuan. The interval value between the two adjacent top Murray price fractal lines is 3.125 yuan ÷ 8=0.3906 yuan by eight equal portions of SR, so the corresponding relationship between each top Murray line and the price of Baosteel Warrant is 0/8-0, 1/8-0.3906, 2/8-0.7812, 3/8-1.1718, 4/8-1.5624, 5/8-1.953, 6/8-2.3436, 7/8-2.7342, 8/8-3.1248. According to the series rules for constructing the Murray price fractal line (since the relationship (2.088-1.260) ÷ 0.3906=2.12>1.25 is tenable, only the top Murray price fractal line needs to be constructed, and no secondary Murray price fractal line needs to be constructed), and considering that the trading price fluctuation range of the warrant is very narrow (only 0.828 yuan), and referring to the above corresponding relationship, Therefore, only the odd Murray line can be used as the upper and lower boundary lines (usually the even Murray line should be used), that is, the 1.1718 yuan corresponding to the 3/8 top Murray line is the closest to the lowest 1.260 yuan in the warrant price fluctuation range [that is, the relationship (1.26-1.1718) ÷ (3.125 ÷ 8 ÷ 8)=1.81<4 holds; The 1.953 yuan corresponding to the 5/8 top Murray line is the closest to the highest price in the warrant price fluctuation range of 2.088 yuan. However, the price range formed by the top Murray line (similar to the actual trading price range of warrants during the observation period) has only three Murray lines, namely, 3/8, 4/8, 5/8 (corresponding to the prices of 1.1718, 1.5624, and 1.953), and the price interval span is large, which is not conducive to the investigation of subtle changes in prices. It is also necessary to use this as a framework and further refine the price space by using the Gann price eight point method, Here we use 1.953 yuan - 1.1718 yuan=0.7812 yuan, and then divide 0.7812 yuan into eight equal parts to get the interval value between the two adjacent price lines as 0.7812 yuan ÷ 8=0.0977 yuan, so the corresponding relationship between each equal line and the price of Baosteel warrants is: 0/8-1.1718, 1/8-1.2695, 2/8-1.3672, 3/8-1.4649, 4/8-1.5626, 5/8-1.6603, 6/8-1.758, 7/8-1.8557, 8/8-1.9534. According to the characteristics of the Muri price fractal line and the Ganen price eight point method, the 0/8 line and 8/8 line represent the ultimate support and resistance to the price; Line 1/8 and Line 7/8 belong to the weak line, and the price will not stay here for a long time; Line 2/8 and line 6/8 are both price reversal lines, which are the axis of price reversal, and are second only to line 4/8 in terms of force to force price reversal; Line 3/8 and Line 5/8 form a transaction intensive area. Line 5/8 is the top of the transaction intensive area, and Line 3/8 is the bottom of the transaction intensive area. Generally speaking, the price will spend about 40% of the time wandering between Line 3/8 and Line 5/8; The 4/8 cable provides the maximum support and resistance. In addition, the top Murray line represents the main callback proportion, and the secondary Murray line represents the secondary callback proportion.
From the actual callback trend of Baosteel's warrants after reaching the peak, the support and resistance levels given by the Murray price fractal line method are closer to the facts than the direct application of the Gann price eight point method. For example, Baosteel's warrants have stabilized from the 2.088 yuan on August 25 to the lowest intraday price of 1.358 yuan on August 30, The actual price of 1.358 yuan is closer to the price of 1.3672 yuan represented by the line 2/8 (the price of the line 2/8 of Gann's 8-point method is 1.467 yuan); Then it rebounded to the intraday high of 1.58 yuan on September 1, and was blocked. The actual price of 1.58 yuan was closer to the price represented by the 4/8 line of 1.5626 yuan (the 4/8 line price of Gan En's 8-point method was 1.674 yuan); After falling back to the lowest intraday price of 1.35 yuan on September 5 when encountering obstacles, it gained support (for reasons as shown in the first article). The warrant price has been fluctuating between 1.37 and 1.45 yuan these days. Since its price has been lower than the bottom of the trading intensive range represented by the 3/8 line, the 3/8 line (1.4649 yuan) will be the first strong resistance when it rebounds again. In terms of operation, it is advisable to buy warrants near Line 2/8 (1.3672 yuan) in the near future, and sell warrants between Line 3/8 and Line 4/8 (1.5626 yuan).
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
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