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Yu Wen
On August 22, Baosteel（ information quotation forum ）The first warrant will be launched, followed by Yangtze Power（ information quotation forum ）It is also expected to launch consideration warrants. How to judge the value of two A-share market warrant pioneers?
Long term electricity warrant calculation
Since the certificate of Changjiang Electric Power is distributed free of charge, for the convenience of discussion, it is advisable to give examples. Suppose an investor holds 10000 shares of Yangtze Power, and according to the consideration plan of Yangtze Power, 1500 warrants can be obtained. Because of the commitment of the consideration plan, the warrants can be sold to China Three Gorges Corporation at a price of 1.80 yuan/share. Therefore, once the warrants are listed and circulated, the minimum price is also 1.80 yuan/share, The price fluctuation after circulation depends on what kind of price investors will reach when they evaluate the share price of Yangtze Power in the next 18 months.
According to the prediction of the current industry research report, most industry analysts prefer that the earnings per share of Changjiang Power in 2006 will be 0.45 to 0.50 yuan. Based on 18 times of the price earnings ratio, the target price for the next 18 months will be between 8.10 yuan and 9 yuan. In the next 18 months, when the warrants expire, investors with warrants can buy a share of Changjiang Power at 5.5 yuan per share. Then, In 18 months, the maximum value of the stock price fluctuation range is 8.10 yuan to 9 yuan minus 5.5 yuan, which is between 2.6 yuan and 3.5 yuan. Therefore, the lowest price range of the Yangtze Power Warrant in the next 18 months is 1.80 yuan, and the highest price range is 3.5 yuan.
The operation strategy of investors will be clear. If the warrant price of Yangtze Power is lower than 1.80 yuan, there is almost no risk. If it fluctuates between 1.80 yuan and 3.5 yuan, it can be used as the basis for buying or selling according to the current market situation and the price of the shares. If the investors holding 1500 warrants have not bought all the time, and the exercise is due, if the share price of Yangtze Power is 9 yuan, then the profit of this investor will be 1500 yuan (9-5.5), and the final result will be 5250 yuan. If the new investors buy 1500 warrants at 1.80 yuan, then Yangtze Power will also be 9 yuan when the exercise is due, then the profit of the investors will be 1500 yuan (9-5.5-1.8), The final result is 2550 yuan, the profit margin is 2550/1.8 amount 1500, and the result is 94.44%. However, if the secondary market price at the time of exercise is lower than 7.3 yuan, investors will start to lose money.
Baosteel warrant calculation
Similar Baosteel shares can be analogized. Baosteel shares can obtain 1 share warrant for every 10 shares. If an investor holds 10000 shares of Baosteel shares, then 1000 share warrants can be obtained. Since Baosteel shares have not yet decided to buy back the warrants, it is relatively troublesome to determine the share price of the warrants. However, since the exercise price determined by Baosteel is 4.5 yuan, and if the current reference price for automatic ex right of stock price is about 4.2 yuan, that is to say, the price difference between the two can be used as the price of warrants, the secondary market price of Baosteel's warrants after price circulation is about 0.3 yuan/share.
If the investor holds the right until its maturity and exercises the right, and the secondary market price at the time of exercise is 4.5 yuan, then the corresponding profit margin is 1000 yuan (4.5-4.2), and the result is 300 yuan. If an investor buys 1000 shares at the price of 0.3 yuan/share in the middle of the journey, and if the future secondary market price is 4.5 yuan, then the investor will lose money, because the exercise price is 4.5 yuan, the secondary market price is 4.5 yuan, and the cost of 0.3 yuan/share is in vain. But if the secondary market price at the time of exercise is 5 yuan, then the investor's income is 1000 yuan (5-4.5-0.3), the result is 200 yuan, and the final profit is 200/1000 yuan 0.3, the result is 66.66%. It can be seen that the leverage effect of warrants is worth looking forward to.
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
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