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□ Director of Datong Securities
Because the calculation of warrant value is too complicated, it is impossible for most investors to really understand the so-called "BLACK-SCHOLES" option pricing model. The most mature experience in the Hong Kong warrant market tells us that many warrants may be worthless after expiration, while some warrants may rise several times or even dozens of times before expiration! Therefore, it is necessary for us to analyze the warrants in the current A-share market from a perspective that is most easily understood by investors. After all, the current A-share market
The seven warrants are mixed, some have investment value, and some are likely to become "waste paper".
First, for the price of warrants, if investors do not consider the so-called historical volatility and time value and other factors, they only consider the conversion relationship between the positive share price and the exercise price. In theory, the price of the warrant should be equal to the price of the shares minus the exercise price. The theoretical price of the put warrant should be equal to the exercise price minus the positive share price. It is believed that this most direct understanding is easily accepted by the market. To a certain extent, the warrants are settled in the above way when they expire. Now we take this as the basis to further analyze who has the investment value of the current seven warrants:
Steel Vanadium PGP1 ( information quotation forum ) : The exercise price is 4.85 yuan. Considering that G Steel Vanadium made little profit in the fourth quarter of last year, if the performance declines this year, it will affect New Steel Vanadium ( information quotation forum ) A share price, so we believe that there is a certain investment opportunity when the warrant price is below 1.5. Of course, the value of speculation is another matter.
Vanke ( information quotation forum ) HRP1 ( information quotation forum ) : The exercise price is 3.73 yuan. At present, the A-share price has reached around 5.7 yuan. Theoretically, only when the A-share price of G Vanke falls below 3.73 yuan, can the warrant have real value, and in combination with Vanke's performance, this possibility is extremely small. Therefore, the current warrant has only speculative value but no investment value.
WISCO JTP1 ( information quotation forum ) : The exercise price is 3.13 yuan. Considering the excellent performance of G WISCO, we believe that it is very likely that the positive shares will stand above 3.13 yuan in the future, so the warrant may not have investment value.
Airport JTP1 ( information quotation forum ) : The exercise price is 7 yuan. At present, the stock price of Guangzhou Airport is around 6.4. As it is an American put warrant, it is understandable that the price is higher than the above price difference. However, due to the relatively stable performance of airport companies, it is unlikely that the stock price of Guangzhou Airport will change significantly in the future, so there is a certain opportunity below 1 yuan of the warrant, and the participation above 1 yuan should be aware of risk control.
Baosteel JTB1 ( information quotation forum ) : the leader of warrants, with the exercise price of 4.5 yuan. Since G Baosteel ( information quotation forum ) As the leader of the steel industry, A-share has attracted many QFII to increase their positions significantly. Therefore, from the perspective of the trend in the next six months, the author believes that it is not impossible for its share price to stand at 5 yuan or even higher. Therefore, the warrant has certain intrinsic value. But at present, the price is too high, and you can pay close attention to it below 1 yuan.
WISCO JTB1 ( information quotation forum ) : The exercise price is 2.9 yuan. As G WISCO is also a steel leader, the company's leading silicon steel is less affected by macro-control, and it is possible for the stock price to further strengthen in the future. If there is a big rise in G WISCO, there will be new opportunities for warrants. As with Baosteel JTB1, it is necessary to make specific judgments based on the trend of stocks and the current price of warrants.
Ansteel JTC1 ( information quotation forum ) : The exercise price is 3.6 yuan. At present, G Ansteel ( information quotation forum ) The price is around 5.4 yuan, while Angang New Steel Co., Ltd ( information quotation forum ) The latest closing price of H shares is around HK $6.65. As the trend of A shares is greatly influenced by H shares, the author believes that the same price of the same shares is the trend in the future. In theory, the price of the warrant can reach 3.2 yuan, compared with 2.466 yuan at present. Therefore, Angang JTC1 is the most valuable one among the seven warrants in the A-share market in the short term.
To sum up, since the market in 2006 is worth looking forward to, under the rising trend of the market, there are great opportunities for call warrants, and some put warrants are likely to become worthless in the end. To be specific, Anshan Iron and Steel JTC1 is currently the most short-term investment worthy of all seven warrants. Although the prices of Wuhan Iron and Steel JTB1 and Baosteel JTB1 are relatively high, they have no investment value at present, but the impact on the warrants after the rise of the future stocks is not excluded. In terms of put warrants, Vanadium Steel PGP1 and Airport JTP1 have investment opportunities at a certain price, while Vanke HRP1 and Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1 can only moderately speculate due to low prices.
( negotiable securities Times)
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