Guangzhou Bandung: Venture Capital Rush Are You Steady

Guangzhou Bandung

Abstract: The short sellers in some blue chips are mainly long-term investors, and some of them are rational or pessimists. Under the pressure of the valuation bubble, they chose to escape from the heavy burden. Some of the long-term arbitrage liquidators aim to adjust their positions. The market has withstood the attack of long-term liquidators under the joint action of short-term bulls and long-term bulls who adjust their positions. It is of great significance to stop falling and recover on Wednesday afternoon. The victory of bulls in this battle means that pessimists have been cleared out of the market, and the left-wing and right-wing double dealers have also been captured by bulls. Before the emergence of new long-term short positions, short-term bulls dominated the market, and the active market atmosphere was conducive to the improvement of the market. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward on Thursday, with the next target of 5400 points. Medium and short-term hot spot venture capital concept stocks; The industry sector can focus on ports, highways, water and gas supply, etc public utility Sector, pay attention to avoiding policy risks in the real estate sector.

Today's market situation: Influenced by the decline of blue chips, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose slightly on Wednesday and then peaked and fell back. Then the stock index went down wave by wave. In the afternoon, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index bottomed out at 5223 points, with a drop of more than 1%. Then, led by the sharp rise of venture capital concept stocks, the market stopped falling and recovered. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index closed at 5310 points, up 16 points or 0.31% from the previous trading day. A total of 236.7 billion yuan was transacted in the two markets, and the trading volume was reduced by nearly 50 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume contracted during the market decline, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. When the market bottomed out and recovered, the trading volume was greatly enlarged, and the volume price coordination still showed the characteristics of a bull market. The coal and oil sector continued to rise after yesterday's adjustment, ranking first in the industry. Leading venture capital concept stocks Lihe Shares 、 Luxin High tech The trading limit board indicates that the concept of venture capital is one of the focuses of the market.

Analysis of long short behavior: real estate stocks fell back across the board due to the impact of the new policy to control the rise of house prices, becoming the focus of short selling. The author believes that the new policy of local leaders' political achievements linked to housing prices is a heavy negative for the real estate sector, and the market still needs time to digest this negative. It is expected that the real estate sector will still be the stage for bears in the future. Yesterday, the author thought in this column: "From the performance of individual stocks with heavy institutional positions in various sectors, long-term investors reduced their positions in CITIC Securities, Chinalco, Yunnan Copper, China Life Insurance, Ping An, Huaxia Bank, Guizhou Moutai and other individual stocks. Most of the above individual stocks are financial stocks, but we can't believe that short sellers are reducing their positions in financial stocks on a large scale. China Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank and other financial stocks only declined slightly during the session The trading strength is relatively balanced. All kinds of signs indicate that long-term investors have reduced their positions in nonferrous metals and financial stocks. The reduction targets are only individual stocks with high valuations, and some blue chips with moderate valuations are still long-term lock-in targets ". On Wednesday, short sellers continued to short blue chip stocks dominated by securities companies, banks and real estate stocks. Among these stocks, short sellers were mainly long-term investors, who were more rational long-term investors, or pessimists among long-term investors. Under the pressure of the valuation bubble, they chose to escape from the heavy burden; Some of the long-term arbitrage liquidators aim to adjust their positions. The market has withstood the attack of long-term liquidators under the combined action of short-term bulls and long-term bulls who adjust their positions. It is significant for the market to stop falling and recover on Wednesday afternoon. The victory of bulls in this battle means that pessimists have been cleared out of the market, and the left-wing and right-wing double dealers have also been captured by bulls. Before the emergence of new long-term short positions, short-term bulls dominate the market, and the market will maintain the hot bull market characteristics of individual stocks.

Game analysis of institutions and retail investors: on the one hand, the main force of institutions is strategically reducing positions in individual stocks with high valuations, and on the other hand, they continue to long potential stocks. Although some institutions are affected by the high overall valuation of the market, most of them do not want to and cannot quit in a short time, because the market has a good long atmosphere, the profit prospects are still attractive, and the long-term bull market has produced a herd effect. At this time, the game factor is beneficial to institutional investors; No, because the main institutions led by the fund hold large positions in blue chips and pan blue chips in a group. In order to maintain the beautiful net value of the fund and strive for greater interests, they can not take a drastic reduction in their holdings of heavy chips in a short period of time. Therefore, under the condition that the fundamentals have not changed significantly and the bull market foundation is still stable, it should be a natural choice for institutions to go long. With the gradual emergence of the valuation bubble of blue chip stocks, the short-term behavior tends to be active after the market center of gravity rises, and the position adjustment behavior of institutional investors in the future market will be more frequent. Retail investors should pay close attention to the new trend of institutional investors, and not blindly follow up the rise and fall in operation. Under the condition of objective valuation of individual stocks, holding on to the stocks with normal valuation will be fruitful. Radical short-term individual investors may as well keep up with valuable market hotspots, but they should avoid catching up with rising stocks and individual stocks that are about to peak after a sharp rise.

Analysis of trend behavior and arbitrage behavior: The rebound of the stock index on Wednesday did not destroy the upward trend, but the opposite trend was self reinforcing. Traders in the future tend to continue to be long. The market has recently withstood the pressure of some long-term traders' arbitrage positions. The pressure on arbitrage has eased in a short time, which is conducive to the market's upward movement.

Market trend forecast: A number of long-term arbitrage closing positions have been digested, and arbitrage pressure will be reduced in a short time; The market trend is still intact and attractive to trend traders. The active market atmosphere is conducive to the improvement of the market. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward on Thursday, with the next target of 5400 points.

Tips on opportunities and risks: At this stage, the market is suitable for short-term speculation. Pay attention to the pace of plate rotation, avoid excessive chasing high, and avoid becoming the last baton in the relay game. Medium and short-term hot spot venture capital concept stocks; The industry sector can focus on ports