Xu Jianhua: A Weekly Review of the Stock Market -- Bull Talk and Bear Talk

By our reporter Xu Jianhua

　　 Abundant funds continue the strong pattern

In the case of the central bank raising the benchmark lending rate, the stock index first fell and then rose, and the Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high in this round, indicating that the market is still strong. The trading volume and the overall market performance show that the current capital is very abundant, and the central bank has relatively moderate tightening

Measures are also difficult to reverse this situation, and the strong pattern of capital driven is still expected to continue.

From the perspective of recent market performance, almost every adjustment will become a good opportunity for capital intervention, which is particularly obvious in strong stocks, indicating that both investor confidence and capital are conducive to the continuation of the strong market. On the one hand, the recent market earning effect has attracted a large number of over-the-counter funds to enter the market. Even if there is a profit taking requirement in the market, it is easy to be absorbed. Because some funds have not entered the market for a long time, they will not withdraw from the market in the short term. On the other hand, as the new old division is about to officially start, in order to hedge the impact of capacity expansion, the policy will still encourage long-term funds such as QFII to enter the market, which will change the market's judgment on the future capital from the perspective of expectations.

In addition, in order to cooperate with the smooth implementation of the new and old segmentation, the policy side may have corresponding supporting policies, which will further reduce the short-term pressure of the new and old segmentation on the market and bring further upward momentum to the market. Recently, the relevant people of Shanghai Stock Exchange once again said that they may relax the limit on price rise and decline in some sectors and implement T+0 trading in some sectors. Once these measures are implemented, the market will undoubtedly be greatly activated. In addition, the innovative opportunities brought by product innovation will also bring new vitality and momentum to the market.

　　 Macro tightening brings adjustment pressure

Although the increase in loan interest rates does not seem to have much impact on the market, it is not ruled out that new regulatory measures will be introduced in the future. Once the market tightening expectation is formed, it will bring medium and long-term adjustment pressure to the market.

Raising the loan interest rate itself will devour part of the profits of listed companies, which will bring greater pressure on the performance of listed companies within the year and even in the next few years. Especially for those listed companies with high debt ratio, the impact of raising loan interest rates is particularly obvious. From the perspective of capital, although the short-term impact is not significant, with the implementation of bank credit tightening measures, market liquidity will face a gradual tightening process. In addition, with the introduction of a series of macro-control policies, the momentum of investment rebound will undoubtedly be suppressed. Those cyclical industries that have a significant impact on the market will bear the brunt of the impact. Recently, relatively strong real estate, construction machinery and other sectors are likely to be suppressed, and short-term market sentiment is likely to be affected.

After the May Day holiday, the division between the old and the new may be implemented. This news, which was originally regarded as bad news, did not bring much negative effect to the market in the early stage, but it does not mean that its impact has been digested. According to the research reports recently released by some institutions, although they are still optimistic about the long-term trend of the market, many believe that the pressure of short-term adjustment has gradually accumulated, and the market is more and more likely to change after the May Day holiday. Once the division between the old and the new is implemented after the long holiday, and further macro-control measures are introduced, the adjustment pressure may face a process of centralized release, which will bring uncertainty to the market after the long holiday.

Overview of Shanghai Composite Index's trend this week (up or down 1.65%, the total transaction amount of the two markets was 209.519 billion yuan, an increase of 15.75% over last week)

Opening 1423.41

1444.71 points at most

Minimum 1386.13 points

1440.22

Rise and fall: -0.49%

Transaction amount in both cities: 46.819 billion yuan

Transaction amount of SME board: 1.218 billion yuan

Rise and fall: -0.71%

Transaction amount in both cities: 40.810 billion yuan

Transaction amount of SME board: 861 million yuan

Increase/decrease:+1.26%

Transaction amount of two cities: 45.508 billion yuan

Transaction amount of SME board: 1.096 billion yuan

Rise and fall: -0.05%

Transaction amount in both cities: 34.634 billion yuan

Transaction amount of SME board: 859 million yuan

Increase/decrease:+1.65%

Transaction amount in both cities: 41.748 billion yuan

Transaction amount of SME board: 1.425 billion yuan

　　 One week review

Monday: Nonferrous metal plate continued to soar The resumption of trading of profit shares soared, but the number of individual shares subject to decline increased. Under the interaction of two different forces, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated widely above the thousand four, and the tail market fell slightly by 0.47%. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 2.12% sharply due to the poor trend of G ZTE and G Vanke. The deal between the two markets reached a new high.

Tuesday: The sharp decline in the Hong Kong market triggered concerns in the A-share market. The decline of Sinopec directly dragged down the Shanghai Composite Index to 1400 points. The strength of such Shenzhen heavyweight stocks as G ZTE and G Vanke made the Shenzhen Composite Index red. The performance of the nonferrous metal sector is still continuing, and the real estate and coal sectors are simultaneously joining the long camp. The two cities can show signs of shrinking.

Wednesday: At the same time as Hong Kong stocks rebounded, the stock markets of the two stock markets staged a rapid counter attack after a rapid decline again, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose steadily to 1400 points. The rise and limit of 46 non ST stocks showed that the energy of long trading continued to seek release points, but the nonferrous metal plate showed a rapid downward trend in the afternoon, and G Zhongjin and G Zhuzhou Metallurgy closed on the decline limit, which had a certain drag on the market.

Thursday: The non-ferrous metal plate showed a certain trend of differentiation, which had no obvious impact on the overall market. The market maintained a volatile trend above the thousand four, and the trading volume shrank significantly. However, the number of trading stocks is still quite large, and the activity of individual stocks makes the funds continue to take the long strategy. Warrants fell sharply in an all-round way when the market was strong.

Friday: The news that the central bank raised the benchmark lending rate had an impact on the market in the early morning, but it suddenly fell below 1400 points and then rose unilaterally. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high of 1444.71 points, closing at 1440.22 points. Banking, commerce, military industry, consumption and other sectors showed strong performance, and neither stock in the two cities fell by the limit. Energy has not reached a new high with the index.

　　 Monday, April 24

First JTB1 113.26% G Mengdian - 31.43%

G Yi Benefit 32.86% G Infrastructure - 27.23%

WISCO JTP1 18.15% G Haisheng 23.50%

Baotou Steel JTP1 12.52% G Jigang -22.97%

Airport JTP1 11.67% G Fozhao - 22.55%

　　 Tuesday, April 25

The first JTB1 56.76% G national pulse - 28.82%

Baotou Steel JTP1 18.32% G Aviation Technology - 14.86%

G Xintian 10.23% G Nanzi -12.03%

Shantui 10.18% raw water CTP1 -10.76%

G Zhongbao 10.12% G Tianli - 10.11%

　　 Wednesday, April 26

First JTB1 35.45% G Baoshuo 28.06%

Huayuan Pharmaceutical 10.19% G Marine 23.43%

Jiangsu Sopu 10.17% G Yaxing - 22.47%

G Gas 10.15% G Shenzhen Energy -21.64%

Dunhuang Seed Industry 10.12% G Changyun - 13.65%

　　 Thursday, April 27

Wanhua HXP1 178.16% G reclaimed water - 29.23%

Shenneng JTP1 45.08% G Huashengda-21.55%

Wanhua HXB1 25.58% G Tongda -18.16%

Yanbian Highway 10.16% Vanke HRP1 - 17.14%

Shantui 10.14% Baotou Steel JTB1 - 16.75%

　　 Friday, April 28

Wuliang YGC1 22.20% G special paper-27.25%

South Holdings 10.15% Wanhua HXP1 - 25.52%

Huasheng Shares 10.15% G Xiangyou - 20.68%

Nanning Department Store 10.14% Wanhua HXB1 - 11.80%

G Qianmo 10.10% G Angel -10.10%